THE FORUMS


German ForumsGeneral DiscussionStrategyFrench Forum

Go Back   PokerTips.org Forums > Strategy > No-Limit Hold'em Ring Games

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old Mar 22, 2005, 9:45pm   #11
Kazz
Grinder
 
Join Date: Nov 2003
Posts: 908
Reputation: 33
Kazz is on a distinguished road
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by killcrazy
check back with me in a week
When did you turn into a Magic 8 Ball?
Kazz est déconnecté   Reply With Quote

Sponsored Links
Don't like this ad? Register to make it go away!

Old Mar 23, 2005, 3:53am   #12
killcrazy
Apex Predator
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Edinburgh, UK
Posts: 10,307
Reputation: 8118
killcrazy has a reputation beyond reputekillcrazy has a reputation beyond reputekillcrazy has a reputation beyond reputekillcrazy has a reputation beyond reputekillcrazy has a reputation beyond reputekillcrazy has a reputation beyond reputekillcrazy has a reputation beyond reputekillcrazy has a reputation beyond reputekillcrazy has a reputation beyond reputekillcrazy has a reputation beyond reputekillcrazy has a reputation beyond repute
This member received this PokerTips Exclamation Mark for one of a number of reasons: blogging, winning a contest, contributing great content, etc. Keep an eye out for chances to receive one of these by your profile! This member received this PokerTips Exclamation Mark for one of a number of reasons: blogging, winning a contest, contributing great content, etc. Keep an eye out for chances to receive one of these by your profile!
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Notjitsu
Golly, I hope he supports my opinion! Think of all the kudo's i'd get in the poker world!

*waiting on pins and needles while watching the calender*
*grins*

this comment also serves as a demonstration on how to handle needle...and a floatation device.

Kc
killcrazy est déconnecté   Reply With Quote
Old Mar 23, 2005, 3:59am   #13
BBKPoker
Flop Artist
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Posts: 26
Reputation: 0
BBKPoker
Send a message via AIM to BBKPoker
Default

I'd call here almost every time.
__________________
The power of accurate observation is often called "cynicism" by those who have not got it. - George Bernard Shaw
BBKPoker est déconnecté   Reply With Quote
Old Mar 23, 2005, 4:52am   #14
Gcuss
Brunson
 
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: Abbotsford, BC
Posts: 231
Reputation: 0
Gcuss
Default

Call.

A set of Q's or 7's is your only concern here. QQ would have raised preflop, and I think a set of 7's would probably happily call the 3 bucks and see if his boat can float on the cheap. Sooooo, you're up against a made small flush, or a guy on a semibluff who has nothing currently. I can't shake down the numbers with any accuracy for pot equity and all..... But I call. Hell, at the 50NL, there's a decent chance the all in guy has QA in his hand... the Q7 is a bit of a worry... doesn't leave you with many outs if a made flush comes along... but this could be what if'd to death!


Call, Call, Call, Call.... and call again!

2 cents...


Grant
__________________
That guy didn't "win" the lottery, he had the nut ticket
Gcuss est déconnecté   Reply With Quote
Old Mar 23, 2005, 12:44pm   #15
packattack88
Grinder
 
Join Date: Mar 2004
Location: Lake Geneva, Wisconsin
Posts: 674
Reputation: 33
packattack88 is on a distinguished road
Default

aa
__________________
Hope is a good thing, maybe the best of things, and no good thing ever dies.
~The Shawshank Redemption~
packattack88 est déconnecté   Reply With Quote
Old Mar 23, 2005, 1:06pm   #16
Lindy
Doyle Look-alike
 
Join Date: Nov 2004
Posts: 413
Reputation: 0
Lindy
Default

If the guy had a flush, then your about 35 percent to win this hand, if he has a higher set then you have are about 10 % or lower to win this hand,
Best case senerio, He has A Q w/aces of hearts, your at about 70 %
and about 80% to win if he has Q 7.....Still Given all that..I have nothing but the blind invested in this pot, and 2 folks to act after me. I Fold here.

I do agree with KC your biggest fear here is a higher set, but at this limit, I could see people making this move with all sorts of hands...

But to any that would make this call or think they might, I am interested in hearing why?
__________________
What do mean why did I call your raise with my 8 3. It was suited.....DUH
Lindy est déconnecté   Reply With Quote
Old Mar 23, 2005, 3:50pm   #17
lush1976
River Rat
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 11
Reputation: 0
lush1976
Default I too like this fold.

I think this a good fold...I dont like playing 22 in MP myself, then again Ive lost a few of these low set hand to higher sets, so I try not to push an all in with them. You only need to lose a stack or two to slow down with them...
lush1976 est déconnecté   Reply With Quote
Old Mar 23, 2005, 9:51pm   #18
killcrazy
Apex Predator
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Edinburgh, UK
Posts: 10,307
Reputation: 8118
killcrazy has a reputation beyond reputekillcrazy has a reputation beyond reputekillcrazy has a reputation beyond reputekillcrazy has a reputation beyond reputekillcrazy has a reputation beyond reputekillcrazy has a reputation beyond reputekillcrazy has a reputation beyond reputekillcrazy has a reputation beyond reputekillcrazy has a reputation beyond reputekillcrazy has a reputation beyond reputekillcrazy has a reputation beyond repute
This member received this PokerTips Exclamation Mark for one of a number of reasons: blogging, winning a contest, contributing great content, etc. Keep an eye out for chances to receive one of these by your profile! This member received this PokerTips Exclamation Mark for one of a number of reasons: blogging, winning a contest, contributing great content, etc. Keep an eye out for chances to receive one of these by your profile!
Default

Call.

I had 3 players give me assessments of what the hand the guy was playing, plus my own rather conservative estimate, then I did some math, watched a couple of cartoons and slept for 14 hours. Here are what I am thinksaid.

The first point here is that the hearts aren't our worry, it's the set. If we had top set here everyone would instantly say call.

Numbers time,

The pot is at 53.50 and its 44.50 to call. I'll assume a $2 rake which makes for odds of 51.50:44.50, thats about 1.157:1 or in percentage terms, we need to win 46.35% of the time.


Against a bigger set we're a big dog, most liekly a german shepherd. We have a 6.6% chance of winning the hand.

Against a made flush we're a moderate underdog, and have a 34.4% chance of winning the hand.

Against a flush draw the math becomes slightly more complex. In this catagory I'm including a number of hands, the strongest of which is AhQx and the weakest of which is an outright bluff with a random heart. There is a chance he is on an outright bluff, but lets be conservative and say his crap bluff involved the 3h. The average of our various winning percentages is 71.25% favourite, so lets used that.


My somewhat conservative estimate puts him on the made flush 35% of the time, the draw 50% of the time and the set 15% of the time, this gives us an overall figure of just over 46.5%. It's a tight call, but it's still a call, and this was a conservative estimate.

Then I prodded Kazz, Gcuss and BBK and had them give me their numbers, naturally BBK complicated matters, not least of all by giving me percentages that added up to 90, but based on this 90% we still got equity of 55.53% total (that is to say we got a 55.53% overall winningness from only 90% of possible hands, anything else he could be holding is a bonus). For the sake of record his convoluted braindump was totted up as 15% made flush, 70% flush draw cum composite hand, 5% set and 10% wreeee. This would make us a sizable favourite.

Kazz gave me percentages of 20, 70 and 10 respectively, working out at 57.43%, which again has us as a sizable favourite overall.

Finally Grant gave me numbers of 60%, 35% and 5% respectively, giving us a 46.55% chance of winning overall. Again, very tight, but a call nontheless.

In conclusion, call.

Kc
killcrazy est déconnecté   Reply With Quote
Old Mar 23, 2005, 10:34pm   #19
packattack88
Grinder
 
Join Date: Mar 2004
Location: Lake Geneva, Wisconsin
Posts: 674
Reputation: 33
packattack88 is on a distinguished road
Default

So, in other words, if you think he has a set or a flush you fold, but if he's got a flush draw to call? Don't freak out on me KC, just want to make sure I understood what you said.
__________________
Hope is a good thing, maybe the best of things, and no good thing ever dies.
~The Shawshank Redemption~
packattack88 est déconnecté   Reply With Quote
Old Mar 23, 2005, 11:23pm   #20
Regulator20
Flop Artist
 
Join Date: Nov 2004
Posts: 95
Reputation: 0
Regulator20
Send a message via AIM to Regulator20
Default

In my opinion there would be no reason to take this risk. The way I see it most of us would be either the best or near the best player at the table and can definitly get our money in at a better time. I prefer to do more of the betting than calling. There are more ways to win that way. Then combine that with the fact you dont have a read on the guy makes a fold even more correct. I think most of you guys already agree with this fold.
Regulator20 est déconnecté   Reply With Quote
Reply

Bookmarks

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Forum Jump



All times are GMT. The time now is 6:43pm. vBulletin 3.7.4 Copyright ©2000 - 2017, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.