THE FORUMS


German ForumsGeneral DiscussionStrategyFrench Forum

Go Back   PokerTips.org Forums > Strategy > No-Limit Hold'em Ring Games

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old Mar 23, 2005, 10:24pm   #21
killcrazy
Apex Predator
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Edinburgh, UK
Posts: 10,307
Reputation: 8118
killcrazy has a reputation beyond reputekillcrazy has a reputation beyond reputekillcrazy has a reputation beyond reputekillcrazy has a reputation beyond reputekillcrazy has a reputation beyond reputekillcrazy has a reputation beyond reputekillcrazy has a reputation beyond reputekillcrazy has a reputation beyond reputekillcrazy has a reputation beyond reputekillcrazy has a reputation beyond reputekillcrazy has a reputation beyond repute
This member received this PokerTips Exclamation Mark for one of a number of reasons: blogging, winning a contest, contributing great content, etc. Keep an eye out for chances to receive one of these by your profile! This member received this PokerTips Exclamation Mark for one of a number of reasons: blogging, winning a contest, contributing great content, etc. Keep an eye out for chances to receive one of these by your profile!
Default

In retrospect I apologise for giving you such a hard time. I had you pegged as a mediocre player with an inflated opinion of himself. I understand where you're coming better now

Here is what you do:

Work out what hands he could be holding and how likely each is. Then you work out how you'd fair against each, then you add it all together. If that number is bigger than your pot odds, you call.

Example,

There is $10 in the pot and you are being asked to call $5

We are being laid 2:1 pot odds, we need to be less than a 2:1 dog for this to be a favourable call. In percentage terms, we need to win the hand more than 33.3% of the time.

You assess that 50% of the time he holds a hand that is a 3:1 favourite over you (you win 25% of the time), and 50% of the time he holds a hand that is a 3:1 dog to you (you win 75% of the time).

x = (0.25 x 0.50) + (0.75 x 0.50)

x = 0.125 + 0.375

x = 0.50, or expressed as a percentage; 50%

Your likelihood of winning the hand is greater than the amount of the pot we are being asked to contribute, consequently, a call is correct.

Kc
killcrazy est déconnecté   Reply With Quote

Sponsored Links
Don't like this ad? Register to make it go away!

Old Mar 23, 2005, 10:26pm   #22
killcrazy
Apex Predator
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Edinburgh, UK
Posts: 10,307
Reputation: 8118
killcrazy has a reputation beyond reputekillcrazy has a reputation beyond reputekillcrazy has a reputation beyond reputekillcrazy has a reputation beyond reputekillcrazy has a reputation beyond reputekillcrazy has a reputation beyond reputekillcrazy has a reputation beyond reputekillcrazy has a reputation beyond reputekillcrazy has a reputation beyond reputekillcrazy has a reputation beyond reputekillcrazy has a reputation beyond repute
This member received this PokerTips Exclamation Mark for one of a number of reasons: blogging, winning a contest, contributing great content, etc. Keep an eye out for chances to receive one of these by your profile! This member received this PokerTips Exclamation Mark for one of a number of reasons: blogging, winning a contest, contributing great content, etc. Keep an eye out for chances to receive one of these by your profile!
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Regulator20
In my opinion there would be no reason to take this risk. The way I see it most of us would be either the best or near the best player at the table and can definitly get our money in at a better time. I prefer to do more of the betting than calling. There are more ways to win that way. Then combine that with the fact you dont have a read on the guy makes a fold even more correct. I think most of you guys already agree with this fold.
Welcome to reality.

If you think you should fold here because you're probably the best player at the table, then you almost certainly aren't the best player at the table.

This might be more relevant in a tournament game of course, but then the tree outside is deciduous.

Kc
killcrazy est déconnecté   Reply With Quote
Old Mar 23, 2005, 10:43pm   #23
BBKPoker
Flop Artist
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Posts: 26
Reputation: 0
BBKPoker
Send a message via AIM to BBKPoker
Default

I'm surprised anyone would put him on made flush here even remotely close to 60% of the time, I noticed my numbers are pretty close to the other actual pro with the exception that he doesn't provide for any outright bluff or complete idiot play like someone pushing in q/j with no redraw, I don't think is a particularly spectacular call, but I don't think calling is a very difficult decision here either.

So that's four pros + yoak through online conversations who agree with a call, I think that's pretty much definitive.
__________________
The power of accurate observation is often called "cynicism" by those who have not got it. - George Bernard Shaw
BBKPoker est déconnecté   Reply With Quote
Old Mar 23, 2005, 10:44pm   #24
BBKPoker
Flop Artist
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Posts: 26
Reputation: 0
BBKPoker
Send a message via AIM to BBKPoker
Default

Also, note that this is a cash game, you can just flat out rebuy, an early position in a tournament might change my mind, but it would probably have to be some kind of unusual circumstance or I'd need to have an external factor like a tell.
__________________
The power of accurate observation is often called "cynicism" by those who have not got it. - George Bernard Shaw
BBKPoker est déconnecté   Reply With Quote
Old Mar 23, 2005, 10:48pm   #25
killcrazy
Apex Predator
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Edinburgh, UK
Posts: 10,307
Reputation: 8118
killcrazy has a reputation beyond reputekillcrazy has a reputation beyond reputekillcrazy has a reputation beyond reputekillcrazy has a reputation beyond reputekillcrazy has a reputation beyond reputekillcrazy has a reputation beyond reputekillcrazy has a reputation beyond reputekillcrazy has a reputation beyond reputekillcrazy has a reputation beyond reputekillcrazy has a reputation beyond reputekillcrazy has a reputation beyond repute
This member received this PokerTips Exclamation Mark for one of a number of reasons: blogging, winning a contest, contributing great content, etc. Keep an eye out for chances to receive one of these by your profile! This member received this PokerTips Exclamation Mark for one of a number of reasons: blogging, winning a contest, contributing great content, etc. Keep an eye out for chances to receive one of these by your profile!
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by BBKPoker
I'm surprised anyone would put him on made flush here even remotely close to 60% of the time, I noticed my numbers are pretty close to the other actual pro with the exception that he doesn't provide for any outright bluff or complete idiot play like someone pushing in q/j with no redraw, I don't think is a particularly spectacular call, but I don't think calling is a very difficult decision here either.

So that's four pros + yoak through online conversations who agree with a call, I think that's pretty much definitive.
Note the figures I used were a very conservative estimate, the actual chances of him being on a set are probably below 5%, if he's on a made flush it's a weak one.

(addendum) and I included the chance he was bluffing in the heart draw, again in the interests of being conservative, if he's on an outright bluff and has a heart, he still has outs innit

Kc
killcrazy est déconnecté   Reply With Quote
Old Mar 24, 2005, 12:19am   #26
packattack88
Grinder
 
Join Date: Mar 2004
Location: Lake Geneva, Wisconsin
Posts: 674
Reputation: 33
packattack88 is on a distinguished road
Default

One thing that I'd also like to mention is that (while we now know that they folded) is that there was a pot sized bet and a flat call (that flat call could have easily been an ace-high flush).
__________________
Hope is a good thing, maybe the best of things, and no good thing ever dies.
~The Shawshank Redemption~
packattack88 est déconnecté   Reply With Quote
Old Mar 24, 2005, 2:46am   #27
Notjitsu
Professional
 
Join Date: Dec 2003
Posts: 2,092
Reputation: 120
Notjitsu will become famous soon enoughNotjitsu will become famous soon enough
Default

An everybody limps pot. 6 players.

1 bets the pot, the 2nd calls, the 3 goes allin.

I don't buy the proposed analysis. I don't see someone going allin following a pot sized raise and call, with a flush draw with 3 people left to act after him.

What hand makes sense there? Maybe AhQ...but you'd probably see a raise preflop with ole AQ from a person that aggressive. Ah7c?

But if Captain Allin has the ace of hearts, what is the second caller calling with? KhQ maybe? But if they have KhQ, what the hell is the original raiser betting? I have no idea at that point? QT? Thats what you have to hope.

Thats the reality that plays out with the flush draw theory, and I don't buy it. There are just many more scenarios that fit the crime scene.

What I think is more likely:

Original Raiser has a Queen. First Caller has the big Heart. Mr. Allin has 77 or a flush. (although thats using some hindsight...in realtime, any one of them could be turning over a flush).

I think in the analysis by the respected pokertips players, the actions of player 1 and 2 were overlooked, and in doing so, they hurt their opinion of the likely strength of mr. allin.

On top of not taking into account that 2 of their outs are likely kaput, as player 1 and 2 have to have something. So you're really drawing to 5 and 8 vs. 7 and 10. Thats 27% or so instead of 35%.

Just a lot of holes in my opinion.
Notjitsu est déconnecté   Reply With Quote
Old Mar 24, 2005, 4:28am   #28
Kazz
Grinder
 
Join Date: Nov 2003
Posts: 908
Reputation: 33
Kazz is on a distinguished road
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Notjitsu
Original Raiser has a Queen. First Caller has the big Heart. Mr. Allin has 77 or a flush. (although thats using some hindsight...in realtime, any one of them could be turning over a flush).
I think the original bettor looks good for a Queen too (unless he's very aggressive and thinks he can pick the pot up since he's in the BB so no one knows what he has and the flop is scary), but from there I'm not sure about your analysis. My estimation of the next 2 people's holdings is affected by this being a game with $0.25/$0.50 blinds. There are a *lot* of players at this level who would be in with a lot less than you're saying.

The first caller could have just about anything, really. Another Queen, a 7 with a heart, pocket 8s, As3c or any random thing. You could narrow it down a lot if you knew what kind of player he was, but I wouldn't automatically assume he's a good, solid player in this game.

The guy who pushed, well, it does seem reasonable to think he had a set or a medium or low flush he wants to protect, but again you have to remember the game you're dealing with. Unless these games have attracted a lot better players since I was in them, this guy could very easily have a draw or possibly even nothing, thinking he can buy the pot.

It's less likely that he has the hands you would expect him to have because at this level I think most people will slowplay themselves to death with a flopped flush or set instead of trying to protect their hands. Most of them would make a very callable raise if they made one at all on the flop.

Please tell me if this is inaccurate, because I'd like to know if I have the wrong idea about current $0.25/$0.50 NL games.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Notjitsu
I think in the analysis by the respected pokertips players, the actions of player 1 and 2 were overlooked, and in doing so, they hurt their opinion of the likely strength of mr. allin.

On top of not taking into account that 2 of their outs are likely kaput, as player 1 and 2 have to have something. So you're really drawing to 5 and 8 vs. 7 and 10. Thats 27% or so instead of 35%.
Good point, you're right. When I was talking to Kc, I hadn't really read this hand thoroughly, and I was not really taking the probably missing outs into account.

Still, I'd actually be more worried about UTG having me beat than the guy who pushed, but I think that in this game there's a good chance you're ahead.
Kazz est déconnecté   Reply With Quote
Old Mar 24, 2005, 9:59am   #29
vitaltilt
Grinder
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 742
Reputation: 0
vitaltilt
Default

I play these levels and while I cannot argue the math, what I don't like about this scenario is the position. With a pot sized bettor and caller, what are the odds or percentages that one (or both) will call the all-in behind the hero??

What I'd like to ask is what would one do if they (magically) knew one of the ep'rs would call the all-in? What if you knew both ep'rs would call?
vitaltilt est déconnecté   Reply With Quote
Old Mar 24, 2005, 10:22am   #30
killcrazy
Apex Predator
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Edinburgh, UK
Posts: 10,307
Reputation: 8118
killcrazy has a reputation beyond reputekillcrazy has a reputation beyond reputekillcrazy has a reputation beyond reputekillcrazy has a reputation beyond reputekillcrazy has a reputation beyond reputekillcrazy has a reputation beyond reputekillcrazy has a reputation beyond reputekillcrazy has a reputation beyond reputekillcrazy has a reputation beyond reputekillcrazy has a reputation beyond reputekillcrazy has a reputation beyond repute
This member received this PokerTips Exclamation Mark for one of a number of reasons: blogging, winning a contest, contributing great content, etc. Keep an eye out for chances to receive one of these by your profile! This member received this PokerTips Exclamation Mark for one of a number of reasons: blogging, winning a contest, contributing great content, etc. Keep an eye out for chances to receive one of these by your profile!
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Notjitsu
What hand makes sense there? Maybe AhQ...but you'd probably see a raise preflop with ole AQ from a person that aggressive. Ah7c?
Which also rules QQ out

If this was $25/50 NL, I don't think anyone who said call would waste any time in folding. Fortunately it's 25/50c NL and they could realistically have all manner of shite.

We welcome additional callers, the more the merrier - the more people that come into the hand the better our odds become.

Kc
killcrazy est déconnecté   Reply With Quote
Reply

Bookmarks

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Forum Jump



All times are GMT. The time now is 10:19pm. vBulletin 3.7.4 Copyright ©2000 - 2017, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.