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Old Aug 23, 2005, 6:03am   #1
NorthView
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Default What would you do?

** (0.25|0.50 No Limit - Cash Game) Real Money

- Vulture sitting in seat 1 with $29.59 [Sitting out]
- D-WADE sitting in seat 2 with $24.20
- Mark_P sitting in seat 3 with $49.70
- Beefheart sitting in seat 4 with $54.65
- daveybazz sitting in seat 5 with $25.75 [Dealer]
- demonkiller sitting in seat 6 with $44.50
- s_immo sitting in seat 7 with $93.55
- madbad sitting in seat 8 with $83.34
- Yoggi sitting in seat 9 with $46.50
- QueenLuise sitting in seat 10 with $65.05

demonkiller posted the small blind - $0.25
s_immo posted the big blind - $0.50
** Dealing card to Beefheart: Ace of Clubs, Ace of Spades
madbad folded
Yoggi folded
QueenLuise called - $0.50
D-WADE folded
Mark_P folded
Beefheart raised - $2.00
daveybazz folded
demonkiller called - $2.00
s_immo folded
QueenLuise called - $2.00

** Dealing the flop: 6 of Clubs, Jack of Clubs, 5 of Clubs
demonkiller checked
QueenLuise bet - $4.50
Beefheart raised - $13.50
demonkiller folded
QueenLuise raised - $22.50

Not played this person before but s/he seems ok and PokerTracker has him/her as a Tight Aggressive so I'm wary of the set (as well as the flush). On the other hand, of course, I've got the Ace.
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Old Aug 23, 2005, 7:46am   #2
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hmm... I think, re-raising her first bet on the flop is a huge mistake. You did miss the opportunity of seeing the turn (comparatively) cheaply. If the turn flops an ace or a club you might have the nuts (set aces) or you'd be sure to have the nuts (ace-high-flush). and you also had a good position, so you could have let the odds on her turn-bet making your decision. but because she re-raised you I think she has the best hand on the flop (either a set with 66/55(I don't think she has JJ)) or a flush(which is more likely: why re-raising a set on such a flop?). and that makes it a tough call. (calling into a made-hand)... another problem: you don't know how many outs you're drawing to. If she has a set, there are a lot of outs and would probably justify a call. on the other hand, if she has the flush I don't think a call would be a good decision.
the question was "what would you do?" - well, as I said I think you could have avoided this tough decision. If you're in gambling mood, call. (but I'd say: abandon-ship!)
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Old Aug 23, 2005, 3:37pm   #3
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I know what Jesus would do.

I know where the nuts are. If he has a set, you have 11 outs. If he has the flush you have 7 outs plus a wierd runner-runner full house. If he has top pair with the Kc kicker, you destroy him. If he has two pair, you have 14 outs for the turn and between 2-17 outs for the river. I am just stupid enough to call here.
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Old Aug 23, 2005, 4:49pm   #4
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I'd say it's 50/50 as to whether he has the set or the low flush. Giving you 11 and 7 outs. That is about a 15-25% chance of improving on the turn against the set/flush. The numbers in the hand simulator in case you were thinking of going all in, are 35.65% against the set, and 30% against the made flush.

Probably fold. I don't think you can really believe that top pair is the best hand here.

If I added this up correctly, he fired a near pot sized raise back at you, so you don't have odds to call. At best you have 11 outs against the set, but even then, he will always have that full house redraw against 9 of those outs. Bottom line, you hand just isn't as strong as it looks.
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Old Aug 24, 2005, 4:43am   #5
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Well, if I am reading the flop action correctly, the initial bet was 4.50, you raised 9 to 13.50, and were reraised 9 to 22.50?

9 to call into a pot of about 45 or so? You can still get away from it on the turn if you wish. But I'd like to see the turn first. Like XA_kid, I can be stupid enough to call too. ;)
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Old Aug 24, 2005, 5:14am   #6
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Oh, is that what it means?

Boy am I on a good run here. 9/54 (9:45) is definately good enough to call.
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Old Aug 24, 2005, 2:42pm   #7
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Myself, I would call and then if the turn misses completely you can get away from it...depending on what he/she does.

Position is important on this one.
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Old Aug 24, 2005, 5:45pm   #8
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Ok, thanks to one and all for your thoughts.

The amounts in the hand history are misleading - "QueenLuise raised - $22.50" means she raised my bet by another $22.50. I folded.

In hindsight I should have called the flop bet rather than raised it, but I like to call as infrequently as possible, and in 50NL I think it's good to be seen to be raising as most players are quite passive.

Oh well...
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Old Aug 24, 2005, 6:22pm   #9
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To recap to the important stuff.

The pot = 34

The bet is 22 to you...

You have 34 left.

If you call, that last 12 is going with it...

So really, you are betting 34 to win 68...2:1.

I think its REAL close, and I don't think either folding or going allin is wrong enoguh where you should lose sleep over it.
---------------

However, The raise on the flop i'm not crazy about. I think its too big a hunk of your stack. As we see looking at what happens if the opponent comes over the top...you have put yourself in a no win situation.

But I do like raising on the flop. But I'd be more into making it a callable bet. Maybe raise another 6 or 7 instead of 13 or 14.

Here's why: If you are ahead, you are a 4-1 favorite, maybe better. If you are behind, you are a 2-1 dog or worse. By raising it up big, you are scaring away the 4-1, and giving a bunch of money to the 2-1 situation.

You want to do the opposite. Keep the 4-1, and don't give too much money to the 2-1.
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Old Aug 24, 2005, 9:34pm   #10
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Is that what the crappy site you're plugging says to do?

EDIT - Spam post this refers to has since been deleted
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