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Old Oct 06, 2005, 6:38pm   #41
FisherKing
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Quote:
Heads up, pot odds are 1:1, for any extra money you put in at this point, you can only get back an equal amount as there is only one person calling. You are putting in 50%, so will have to win 50% just to brake even.


Are you considering the money already in the Pot?
No I am not. The comment is meant to evaluate the prudence of additional bets while on a draw after one person is already all-in. While what's already in the pot helps you with odds on further calls, the momey you are now adding to the pot is decreasing your odds because only one other person is calling. You hav a 2:1 ratio while three handed, but only a 1:1 ratio when heads up, thus diluting your already borderline odds.



Quote:
Step A:
$9.25 to call a $20.95 pot = 2.26:1 ratio
$9.25 to call a pot that will be $30.20 = 31%
+ EV either formula.
Actually, you are correct. I had taken those numbers from an earlier post you made and assumed you meant to say that it was 9.25 to call a pot that will be 20.95. Now I see where some of the confusion was.

At least now that we have the numbers correct, it does prove one aspect of my point. Calling at that point would give you 2.26:1 pott odds, while betting changes it to 2:1. Betting your flush draw here voluntarily reduces your EV.

The other side of the coin that I can now see is that by betting there is some chance of mcmizzle folding and therefore "locking you in" at the odds you want instead of the less favorable odds you'd get if you call and he goes all-in. Now that we have thouroughly fleshed out all of the facets of this hand, I concur with your conclusion that it would be a +EV move from a simple flush draw perspective. This has been very enlightening.

I still would've folded after being raised and reraised though. I don't need to risk my whole stack on such a tiny +EV. Also, I think we've established this, but I would never draw to a flush when a full house would be so likely. The "texture" of that flop was just plain nasty for your hand, and three raises on that flop raises the distinct possabilty that someone already has a full house.
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Old Oct 06, 2005, 7:18pm   #42
Dougikins
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Originally Posted by AJS
Dougikins,

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Yes, that's the case. I said IFFFF you hit your 8 clean flush outs. The 6 of clubs is on the board and so is the 4 of clubs. If the board pairs either of those, you still didn't get a club, so you've lost. If the board brings runner-runner pair like 7c and 7d, then in that situation you've lost, but it's so unlikely, I don't consider it.
To clarify, In this hand, you need to worry about:
The 4th J
6h, 6s, 6d
4h, 4s, 4d
and the three matching cards to the flush card we would need to hit.
Giving the Set 10 outs to draw against your FL by the river.
I don't understand the next to last line about the three matching cards. Maybe I missed something or you did, but I'm not making the connection.

The flush draw player has Ac Tc 6c 4c .... so, 8 outs are: Kc, Qc, 9c, 8c, 7c, 5c, 3c, and 2c. None of those cards improve your opponents hand. So, the set has 7 outs. The Jack is highly unlikely, but those 6 low cards do scare me. While it is true that facing a set puts you at lower odds to win than a pair, it's not as much as people have been implying.
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Old Oct 06, 2005, 7:30pm   #43
FisherKing
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The flush draw player has Ac Tc 6c 4c .... so, 8 outs are: Kc, Qc, 9c, 8c, 7c, 5c, 3c, and 2c. None of those cards improve your opponents hand.
I think the point being made is that you can hit your flush with your 8 clean outs, but still be vulnerable to a redraw to a full house if your flush card then pairs on the river.
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Old Oct 06, 2005, 9:42pm   #44
Dougikins
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FisherKing
Quote:
The flush draw player has Ac Tc 6c 4c .... so, 8 outs are: Kc, Qc, 9c, 8c, 7c, 5c, 3c, and 2c. None of those cards improve your opponents hand.
I think the point being made is that you can hit your flush with your 8 clean outs, but still be vulnerable to a redraw to a full house if your flush card then pairs on the river.
Ah, the matched cards. I see, now. I knew all along you could lose with the redraw, but for some reason, this brain didn't think about those 3 additional outs once the turn comes. Thanks for clearing that up and now I've learned something.
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