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Old Feb 22, 2006, 12:40am   #1
patred48
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Default What did he have?

FTP SnG, fairly early on. emailmeatmra was playing fairly loose, had gone all-in twice (I think) up to this point, but I had got him once early on when he was limping into a hand and checking on the flop.

Table 1 - 30/60 - No Limit Hold'em - 19:07:24 ET - 2006/02/21
Seat 1: CISK EXPORT (2,370)
Seat 3: turner gill (1,565)
Seat 5: emailmeatmra (3,030)
Seat 6: Plochman (1,695)
Seat 7: tramlaw (2,145)
Seat 9: Nifle (2,695)

turner gill posts the small blind of 30
emailmeatmra posts the big blind of 60
The button is in seat #1

*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to turner gill [Ah Tc]
Plochman folds
tramlaw folds
Nifle folds
CISK EXPORT folds
turner gill raises to 180
emailmeatmra calls 120

*** FLOP *** [9c 8c Jh]
turner gill bets 360
emailmeatmra calls 360

*** TURN *** [9c 8c Jh] [As]
turner gill checks (I kinda figured him for AJ)
emailmeatmra bets 720

(but then I thought about it some more and figured he would've been more banzai pre-flop if he had AJ, and probably firing chips with even a J on the flop, so ....)

turner gill calls 720

*** RIVER *** [9c 8c Jh As] [Js]
turner gill bets 305, and is all in (I know, I should have gone all in on the turn, silly me was just clicking buttons)
emailmeatmra folds
Uncalled bet of 305 returned to turner gill

No idea why he folded unless he just knew he was beat and didn't want to contribute more. Maybe had a 9 or 8? A-rag? He went all-in two hands later with AQ and got beat by AK.
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Old Feb 22, 2006, 7:15am   #2
Gerrit2002
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Looks for me like a bluff or semi bluff on the turn... He is a loose player sitting in the BB so he could have a wide range of hands...

Most likely he had a ten ( 10 K ) or a flush draw on clubs maybe with a str8 draw ( Kc Qc )... Hard to tell with such a kind of player...

With Ax he would have called the river hoping to win the pot with this huge odds... With 8 or 9 he could fold but also he could call 300 for the pot of 3000 ( u said he is ready to gamble with 2 All ins so I think he would spend 300 with any hand better than nothing to win the 3000 and to see Your cards )...

I would put him on KQ or 10 maybe with a flush draw!
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Old Feb 22, 2006, 9:15am   #3
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No, his turn bet is the odd one. If he was drawing, he'd have checked there.

I think he had a 9, possibly 98s. He makes the mistake of slow-playing his flop two-pair, so when he sees you check to the turn A, thinks this is the time to take it down. When you call that turn bet, he knows you definately have a J or an A or the made straight, so regardless of which it is, he knows he's beat with the river J, and lets it go to save his remaining chips for another poor hand.
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Old Feb 22, 2006, 10:39am   #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Iestyn75
No, his turn bet is the odd one. If he was drawing, he'd have checked there.

I think he had a 9, possibly 98s. He makes the mistake of slow-playing his flop two-pair, so when he sees you check to the turn A, thinks this is the time to take it down. When you call that turn bet, he knows you definately have a J or an A or the made straight, so regardless of which it is, he knows he's beat with the river J, and lets it go to save his remaining chips for another poor hand.
I can not see the reason for slowplaying 2 pair on the flop and then with an Ace on the turn getting in hurry and bet out big... If he is scared about AJ why should he risk 720? What does he want to represent after slowplaying the flop?

I think he put his opponent on a missed hand ( so the 360 bet on the flop would seemed to him a continuation bet ). So he tried to win the pot right there with the bet of 720. With nothing he would have folded on the flop, with a strong or good hand ( like 89 ) he would try to get some money or information on the turn with a smaller bet.

With the information that the player does not fear the all in and gambling I think he is on a draw and wants to win the pot on the turn with a chance of making a hand on the river.

If he had 89 I think the chances of winning with his hand after the river are big enough to call the last 300 because with only 300 left his opponent had to make the all in move any way. The fold makes only sense to me if the player has nothing on the river.

What buy in level was the SnG? Maybe the level of buy in and skill is too high for my experience so I missread this completely!
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Old Feb 22, 2006, 1:20pm   #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gerrit2002
What buy in level was the SnG? Maybe the level of buy in and skill is too high for my experience so I missread this completely!
It was a $5+0.50. They're usually pretty loose/stupid early on. This was was down to four when the blinds were at 50/100.
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Old Feb 22, 2006, 1:45pm   #6
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Originally Posted by patred48
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gerrit2002
What buy in level was the SnG? Maybe the level of buy in and skill is too high for my experience so I missread this completely!
It was a $5+0.50. They're usually pretty loose/stupid early on. This was was down to four when the blinds were at 50/100.
Ok thats not too high for me
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Old Feb 23, 2006, 9:58am   #7
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Gerrit, forgive me, but I can't quite see your objection to my reasoning. Let me go back to the start of the hand.

Turnergill is the first to raise - doing so with AT, happy to steal the big blind, or see a flop. Email..is asked for another 120, so has something worth seeing the flop with, high cards, a pair, or suited connectors. He is chip leader by 300+ so can afford it, consistent with his loose play.

Flop comes down helpful to Turnergill - an open-ended straight draw, plus his A as back-up, so he leads out, with a full pot-sized bet. There is value in this rather large continuation bet, but in truth he'd be happy to take this raised pot down here. But email calls. We can speculate why he called the preflop raise, but he can't call this flop bet without a hand, imo. So he must have J, 9, or 8 or two of them; an overpair even TT, and I think he'd have played back preflop; a lower pair and he should fold. Yes of course, he may be drawing, but his turn play rules that out I think. With the benefit of the full hand history, we can also rule out him having had a J because of his river fold. So what does that leave us? 9 and 8 I think.

Now comes the turn Ace, and Turnergill checks; it is a scare card. So email thinks he can now force him off this one with a bet which, if Turnergill calls, basically commits him. It's a bold move, destined to failure, but not one which he could have made without something - something which he already had to justify his flop call. Again, if he was on the draw, he'd have checked behind Turnegill at the turn and folded if he missed the river. I think he was genuinely surprised that Turnergill called that 720 (why not re-raise all-in there and then??) but it was a call which, attached to the preflop raise, provided full information - he's got an Ace, more than likely with a medium-high kicker.

So the river delivers another J and Turnergill throws his last 305 into the middle. Email knows full well that his opponent has minium AAJJ. The only hand I can possibly imagine to be consistent with all of the previous action from email is a lesser two pair which didn't improve. So he saves his 305 and leaves the table guessing.

QED - 98.

(ps I read nothing related into busting out later AQ v AK - happens all the time).
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Old Feb 23, 2006, 10:58am   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Iestyn75
Gerrit, forgive me, but I can't quite see your objection to my reasoning. Let me go back to the start of the hand.

Turnergill is the first to raise - doing so with AT, happy to steal the big blind, or see a flop. Email..is asked for another 120, so has something worth seeing the flop with, high cards, a pair, or suited connectors. He is chip leader by 300+ so can afford it, consistent with his loose play.

Flop comes down helpful to Turnergill - an open-ended straight draw, plus his A as back-up, so he leads out, with a full pot-sized bet. There is value in this rather large continuation bet, but in truth he'd be happy to take this raised pot down here. But email calls. We can speculate why he called the preflop raise, but he can't call this flop bet without a hand, imo. So he must have J, 9, or 8 or two of them; an overpair even TT, and I think he'd have played back preflop; a lower pair and he should fold. Yes of course, he may be drawing, but his turn play rules that out I think. With the benefit of the full hand history, we can also rule out him having had a J because of his river fold. So what does that leave us? 9 and 8 I think.

Now comes the turn Ace, and Turnergill checks; it is a scare card. So email thinks he can now force him off this one with a bet which, if Turnergill calls, basically commits him. It's a bold move, destined to failure, but not one which he could have made without something - something which he already had to justify his flop call. Again, if he was on the draw, he'd have checked behind Turnegill at the turn and folded if he missed the river. I think he was genuinely surprised that Turnergill called that 720 (why not re-raise all-in there and then??) but it was a call which, attached to the preflop raise, provided full information - he's got an Ace, more than likely with a medium-high kicker.

So the river delivers another J and Turnergill throws his last 305 into the middle. Email knows full well that his opponent has minium AAJJ. The only hand I can possibly imagine to be consistent with all of the previous action from email is a lesser two pair which didn't improve. So he saves his 305 and leaves the table guessing.

QED - 98.

(ps I read nothing related into busting out later AQ v AK - happens all the time).
Sure I will forgive u because I will be the first one to say I am wrong and I am the first one beeing happy to get some feedback. To make it more clearly there is nothing to forgive.

So lets play the hand from the view of Email with different starting hands:

He is sitting in the big blind 6 handed table with the chiplead ( not big but leading )... In the SB sits a player with something like half his stack.

Everybody folds to the SB who raised to 3 times the BB.

What kind of hands would the big blind ( a kind of loose player ) calling here? With lets say TT - AA he would definitly raise in most of the times because as last to act with only one player left there is no gain in calling here.

With AK and AQ he would have raised also I think.

OK so we know he hasn´t got a J so he could have suited connectors, 2 middle cards ( K10 or Q10 ) or maybe Ax.. Depends a little bit how often the SB tried to steal away the BB....

OK first hand 89:

The flop is really big for him ( 2 Pair )... But what should he fear here? When slowplaying the 2 pair he would not put Turner on a draw ( flush or str8 ).. He would let him pay for the next card with a reraise I think... So Email if he has 2 pair is afraid of a set or higher two pair when calling ( not very likely here ) or he thinks Turner has a made hand which is weaker than his 2 pair ...

So he calls... Next card is an Ace... Turner checks and Email is betting out huge... Why? If he is afraid the ace changed something ( giving Turner a 2 pair as well ) why would he bet out so big with the risk of being called by a strong hand? The ace changed nothing on the drawing side.. Still the same flush and str8 draw... So what should he be afraid of what he wasn´t afraid of on the flop? Why slowplay the hand to get more money and then trying to win it right there?????

And if Email thinks Turner has drawed a better hand with the ace what does he wants to represent with the bet? Ace as well?

Thats the point which makes no sense to me....


Second hand K10 ( or any other drawing hand ):

With K10 he would call preflop which makes totally sense. Now the flop comes with a OESD for him. Turner bets out the pot showing some kind of hand... What to do? Cal or foldl... Odds are OK with 1 overcard and a str8 draw ( even better if he also has the flush draw ) and the possibility that Turner is just betting a continuation bet with no hand...

Then the Ace comes on the turn and Turner checks. Email could for sure check here also hoping to hit his draw. But maybe he puts Turner on nothing or a draw also and tries to steal the pot right here. Why not? He has some outs to win this hand, he can´t be sure beeing behind because with a made hand Turner would bet the turn not giving away a free card.

In this scenario the huge bet makes sense to me because he WANTS to win the pot right there.

After the call and the Jack hits on the river he knew he lost ( only K high hand with board pair ) so he gave it away.

He had 1:10 odds on the river so even with 89 the chance that Turner ( who has only 300 left in his stack ) has to move all in even with a missed draw is worth it I think. The 300 are not hurting Email much but the chance of winning 1 out of 10 pots is definitly there even with a board pair and a low pair I think...

From this point of view I would put him on these kind of hands and not on 89... For sure he could have anything ( donkeys are playing all around ) so we will not know it for sure... I am not saying 89 is impossible in this situation but for me the drawing hand is more likely...

Do I missed something completely or are some of my guesses far out of range? Happy to hear any comment on this... Like I said I would be the first to say OK I was wrong... No problem with that...
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Old Feb 23, 2006, 3:34pm   #9
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Gerrit - in a roundabout way, we are actually agreeing on the thinking of the players, but not on the consequences. You say:

Quote:
So he calls... Next card is an Ace... Turner checks and Email is betting out huge... Why? If he is afraid the ace changed something ( giving Turner a 2 pair as well ) why would he bet out so big with the risk of being called by a strong hand? The ace changed nothing on the drawing side.. Still the same flush and str8 draw... So what should he be afraid of what he wasn´t afraid of on the flop? Why slowplay the hand to get more money and then trying to win it right there?????
If you go back to my first contribution to this thread, I said that his slow-playing of the flop was his mistake. Why slow play? I don't know either. He clearly wasn't afraid of the A on the turn, but neither was he expecting the turn bet to be called. A question to Turnergill would be - would he have called at 700 raise on the flop with nothing but a draw and poor odds?

The other point, on which we can agree to disagree is that you say:
Quote:
Turner bets out the pot showing some kind of hand... What to do? Cal or foldl... Odds are OK with 1 overcard and a str8 draw ( even better if he also has the flush draw ) and the possibility that Turner is just betting a continuation bet with no hand...
I disagree that he had the odds to call the flop bet if he had a straight draw. That's not to say he didn't of course, but I think a player holding KT should not call that and then bet a massive pot-sized bet when the A lands.

I'll concede that he may have been drawing flop, bluffing turn, give up river. But I still think he had a hand at the flop and was semi-bluffing the turn at best. It was Turner's call of the turn, plus the J on river which gave him the info he needed that he was beat.

Thanks for the engagement!
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Old Feb 23, 2006, 4:39pm   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Iestyn75
A question to Turnergill would be - would he have called at 700 raise on the flop with nothing but a draw and poor odds?
If he would have raised another 700+ my bet on the flop meaning I'd have to call an additional 700, I would have folded. If he raised 700 over my 360 bet meaning I would only have to call 340, I'd probably do it and then fold on the turn if I missed and he bet. If I have my math right, it's pretty close going by the odds calculator (1080 already in pot, 700 bet, 340 to call). Either of those situations, he went over the top on my raise on the flop, and I usually respect that.

I think you're right he had 9-8 and figured he could force me out with the A on the turn.
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