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Old Apr 17, 2006, 4:54pm   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by stickdog
You've hit 7-2paired on the BB after 3 limpers.

The pot has cost you nothing so far and within 3 limpers there will be a stealer on the river for sure.

You have to hold out for the chance of a big pot that was not instigated by yourself, as they are certainly not putting you on anything other than one pair. Plus you've got a full house draw that could clean up if war breaks out!

'Risk reward ratio' I believe. Why take a lousy 2 bets now, when you could easily end up with 12-15? Experience tells me those limpers will check round, or fold to your bet, that's a low reward for such a nice flop!
yeh and 2 weak pairs isnt something you want to bring to the river....why invest so much into a pot just to see someone beat ur hand at the river??? i think the worst move here is to slowplay
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Old Apr 17, 2006, 5:28pm   #12
stickdog
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An interesting discussion, may I take it further? I'm learning...

I'm a tourney player, the strategy may well be different for cash games. In tourneys you dont risk everything on 2 low pair post flop, but you do look for cheap jackpots, which this is a good example of.

He hasn't invested anything yet, and to me, that's the difference.

If he tries a pot sized bet, he could easily face a J and a flush draw, the pot odds for a flush draw will be correct if 2 guys call. Now he is investing and chancing a loss, and is open to an even bigger pot sized river bluff if the club comes. I think 3-4 limpers is too many to chance.

A probe bet could lose customers, that hurts more than losing a BB you thought was rubbish to start with.

Now wouldn't you rather spend nothing with the potential of winning 15 bets, or at least a 50-50 chance of winning the current pot after the river anyway? Folding for free if a club comes is a much easier decision isn't it?

It's a toughy, because the all-in move will win it for sure, but it aint no reward either.

I hate these questions but I love a good debate
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Old Apr 17, 2006, 6:28pm   #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by stickdog
An interesting discussion, may I take it further? I'm learning...

He hasn't invested anything yet, and to me, that's the difference.
This shouldn't make a difference at all. Regardless of how the money got into the pot, it's there now. The idea that if you put money into the pot you should feel more obligated to bet at it or stick around and try to win it is part of the sunk costs fallacy. Once the money is in the pot, it's no one's, and a $X pot is an $X pot, regardless of how it got there.

Quote:
Originally Posted by stickdog
If he tries a pot sized bet, he could easily face a J and a flush draw, the pot odds for a flush draw will be correct if 2 guys call. Now he is investing and chancing a loss, and is open to an even bigger pot sized river bluff if the club comes. I think 3-4 limpers is too many to chance.
So your suggestion is to check and let your opponents get their cards for free instead of charging them to draw against you? If you think a pot sized bet isn't enough to narrow the field sufficently, bet more than the pot. Figure out what your goal is (protecting your hand in this case), and bet an amount to accomplish it.

Quote:
Originally Posted by stickdog
A probe bet could lose customers,
Simultaneously being concerned about losing customers and worried that people will suck out on you doesn't make sense. You're looking at the bad side of having a small number of people in the hand with you, and the bad side of having a large number of people in the hand with you.

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Quote:
Originally Posted by stickdog
Now wouldn't you rather spend nothing with the potential of winning 15 bets, or at least a 50-50 chance of winning the current pot after the river anyway? Folding for free if a club comes is a much easier decision isn't it?
It's not really for free. You're sacrificing your equity in the pot. You're most likely ahead so you want to (a) grow the pot and (b) push out people who could draw to better hands than you, thus increasing your pot equity.

Would you make the same arguments if you have AdAc on a Js 3h 7s board? You should check it down so that if another spade falls you can get out for cheap?
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Old Apr 17, 2006, 6:51pm   #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by stickdog
An interesting discussion, may I take it further? I'm learning...

I'm a tourney player, the strategy may well be different for cash games. In tourneys you dont risk everything on 2 low pair post flop, but you do look for cheap jackpots, which this is a good example of.

He hasn't invested anything yet, and to me, that's the difference.

If he tries a pot sized bet, he could easily face a J and a flush draw, the pot odds for a flush draw will be correct if 2 guys call. Now he is investing and chancing a loss, and is open to an even bigger pot sized river bluff if the club comes. I think 3-4 limpers is too many to chance.

A probe bet could lose customers, that hurts more than losing a BB you thought was rubbish to start with.

Now wouldn't you rather spend nothing with the potential of winning 15 bets, or at least a 50-50 chance of winning the current pot after the river anyway? Folding for free if a club comes is a much easier decision isn't it?

It's a toughy, because the all-in move will win it for sure, but it aint no reward either.

I hate these questions but I love a good debate
Everyone should ignore this post. I have never seen so many stupid comments in one post.

You're a tournament player, right? The point is to accumulate chips, not give away pots for free. Wouldn't you rather reach the final table because you took advantage of a lucky situation than to be the bubble boy because "if isn't the nuts, I aint bettin' it?"

If he bets the pot, the only way the flush draw is getting correct odds to call is if 2 people call in front of him. And if you are on a table who likes to chase do what cetecean said and bet more than the pot.

Poker is a game of mistakes, not a game of saying "Please Sir, take this pot. I don't want it anyways. It smells foul and I might get out-drawn on. Let me check until the point that my balls shrivel up so much that they look like California raisins."
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Old Apr 17, 2006, 7:18pm   #15
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I'm also a tournament player, and I would almost never slowplay two pair...or a set...or a straight. Bet them, bet them hard, make the bastards pay dearly for their suckouts.

Believe me, more often than not, leading out will not only give you information, it'll suck in the fish and the calling stations. Bet. Bet hard. Bet them into submission.
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Old Apr 18, 2006, 11:20am   #16
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U just wouldn't believe it, but yes, today it hapened, almost spooky!

Uncanny, 8-2 BB, 3-4 limpers, I get two pair on flop, there's 2 hearts on board.

I checked it down, (the 3rd heart came on the turn). Checked round, I hit the FH on the river. I bet a lousy 1bet, YES a 1 BET!!! before being raised, I reraise all-in, guy with 3Kind is pot committed. I cashed. (If no FH, I fold, I lose 2 bets).

Just like I said, risk free, turned 2 bets into a 79 bet return.

Went on to make 3rd in a 128 person tourney.

[tries hard not to scoff]

Game ID 761641196 starting - 2006-04-18 13:16:13 ** $1 NL Freezeout:Table 7 [Multi Table Hold 'em] (20.00|40.00 No Limit - MTT) Real Money - faggel sitting in seat 1 with $750.00 - dram sitting in seat 2 with $1510.00 - phellmouth sitting in seat 3 with $1570.00 - Trader55 sitting in seat 4 with $1440.00 [Dealer] - FearAl sitting in seat 5 with $1310.00 - Pokenat sitting in seat 6 with $1480.00 - TwinTigersOk sitting in seat 7 with $1500.00 - alleyratt sitting in seat 8 with $2190.00 - coop333 sitting in seat 9 with $1870.00 - Mystafyi sitting in seat 10 with $1420.00 FearAl posted the small blind - $10.00 Pokenat posted the big blind - $20.00 ** Dealing card to Pokenat: 8 of Diamonds, 2 of Diamonds TwinTigersOk folded alleyratt called - $20.00 coop333 folded Mystafyi called - $20.00 faggel called - $20.00 dram folded phellmouth folded Trader55 folded FearAl called - $20.00 Pokenat checked ** Dealing the flop: King of Hearts, 2 of Spades, 8 of Hearts FearAl checked Pokenat checked alleyratt checked Mystafyi checked faggel checked ** Dealing the turn: 9 of Hearts FearAl checked Pokenat checked alleyratt checked Mystafyi checked faggel checked ** Dealing the river: 8 of Spades FearAl checked Pokenat bet - $20.00 alleyratt raised - $440.00 Mystafyi folded faggel folded FearAl folded Pokenat went all-in - $1460.00 alleyratt called - $1480.00 alleyratt shows: 7 of Diamonds, 8 of Clubs Pokenat wins $3060.00 from the main pot End of game 761641196
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Old Apr 18, 2006, 1:59pm   #17
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just because something happens once, doesn't mean its an indication of what is the best play.

The best play here is definately to try and take it down on the flop. You will more often get outdrawn than you will hit your full house and win a huge pot.
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Old Apr 18, 2006, 3:46pm   #18
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I'm not disagreeing with any of what you say, but it happened the very next day, and the reason I wrote it is because it's happened many times before.

At 79/1 proven payout I feel I am offering good debate on this example.

Can anyone continue hammering down pot sized bets 79 times in a row and never meet a flush or a J paired played by a rebuy bonehead or someone late for work? Not in my humble opinion. Not in today's tourneys.

Strategy isn't written in stone and does evolve, it certainly needs to be adaptable for today's online tourney play. I'm adapting to the fact you are mostly ring players, can you try to see it from the tourney aspect?

I'm only telling you what has worked for me for the last two years, and given me 1000% tourney play profit.

What's wrong with that?
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Old Apr 18, 2006, 5:40pm   #19
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In the SPECIFIC instance that you have two pair and an opponent has a flush draw, you think that getting 76-1 on your "money" is better than the 166-1 shot of that sequence of events happenings? You do realize that you have to be incredibly deepstacked and your opponents willing to go broke on a flush with a pair on the board to make this even a semi-profitable play and you just aren't going to be that deepstacked in a tournament.

Why don't you stick to a simpler game, like "fetch"?
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Old Apr 19, 2006, 3:06am   #20
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Insulting and closed minded, I don't need 76/1 to bet you're not nice, I'd go all-in on that one.
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