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Old Apr 28, 2006, 12:57am   #1
Hustlr
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Default Typical Bad Beat Story

$30 rebuy on Paradise.
Down to 40 players.
I am in 5th place with 75k chips.
Blinds are 1.5k/3k

I am chip leader at my table. The 2nd chip leader at the table mini raises it 2x the BB UTG. Now I've paying real close attention all tourney, playing really well. This guy has played his big pair super agressively, so I dont put him on AA, not that I'm gonna fold anyway.

I bump it to 15k with my mighty KK! He immediately pushes all in for about 55k more.

I call. He shows AQs! (note: this is a terrible play by him. do not battle with the only stack that can destroy you when you are sitting comfortably. And especially dont do it when he has made it perfectly clear that AQ is no good here.)

Board comes: 458 T A !!! Woooo!

That leaves me with 9k. Awesome, having 3 BBs owns.

I am soon busted when I push on the button with QK and get called by AA.

Now the moral of the story you ask? Simple, it was not a bad beat at all. Horrible timing, but not a bad beat.

Earlier in the tourney I had QQ vs AQ on AKQ flop. I doubled up.
About mid stage of the tourney, I had KK vs AK all in preflop, double up.
Now for the third time I get big pair vs one over card.
I am a 70/30 favorite.

Oh wait, I won 2 out 3 of these type hands during this tournament. That doesnt even count the JJ vs KQ where I hit a set on the flop and doubled up.

So I guess the odds are pretty much right on. No bad beat here. Move along, nothing to see.
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Old Apr 28, 2006, 1:17am   #2
CBone
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You have a very valid point, Hustlr. Your chance to win 3 consecutive 70/30s are ~33%, so that's not that great. But, and I think that is also something to keep in mind, that guy, who wins 3 or even 4 consecutive 70/30s, is that guy with the big stack, who is able to pounce on his table and is very likely to win the tourney. Remember how Raymer won every frickin race in 2004, and in a race you are way worse off, your chance to win 3 in a row is a mere 12%! Don't know where I read it, even though it was just a few days ago, but to win a tournament, you have to win with AK and against AK. Sooo...whatever the point of my post is. Besides that it is +1. *looking over to XA_Kid*
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Old Apr 28, 2006, 1:25am   #3
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Great point as usual Pops. (BTW I'm assuming you had KK--didn't say in the post.) Some people expect to win everytime they're the favorite which would be nice but not gonna happen.

Hope Ineedhelp peeps this and gives it some consideration.
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Old Apr 28, 2006, 1:42am   #4
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so you're telling me that online poker isn't rigged?
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Old Apr 28, 2006, 2:05am   #5
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I dont think hes going that far, butcho.
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Old Apr 28, 2006, 4:07am   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by juggalo68
Great point as usual Pops. (BTW I'm assuming you had KK--didn't say in the post.) Some people expect to win everytime they're the favorite which would be nice but not gonna happen.
Doh. Yeah I had KK.

This was no doubt a devastating blow. The one where you kind of want to puke all over yourself. When that A hit, I was infuriated.

It was only because it was such a crucial pot. Winning that pot would make me tourney chip leader at a very weak table. Basically, good game everyone else. So the only bad luck I had was the timing and the that it was against the only person who could cripple me.

But after a few minutes, I realized that I received exactly what I deserved. No more, no less. I wasnt the victim of any more bad luck than normal. This is normal poker.

So just throwing that out there. It sucks, but the odds played out, as they always do. It's just funny how hard it is to realize that though.
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Old Apr 28, 2006, 5:16am   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hustlr
But after a few minutes, I realized that I received exactly what I deserved. No more, no less. I wasnt the victim of any more bad luck than normal. This is normal poker.
What you say is true.. But I don't think it's wrong to be disappointed.. After all this wasn't the time for you to have your better-than-average luck/variance.. And there are certainly many times when you don't get your fair share of the chips in a tourney..

That said, I do think it's wrong to let beats (bad or normal or.. good?) affect your play, and I think that's the important lesson that we all have to learn. And it seems like your rationalizing of it like you did helped you get over it quickly and move on to playing more good poker.

Good beats?? Did I really put that?
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Old Apr 28, 2006, 8:48am   #8
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There is no spoon.

Next!
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Old Apr 28, 2006, 10:06am   #9
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Nice post Hustlr. I put up an interesting article on the same thing which I found on Phil Gordons website:

http://www.pokertips.org/phpBB2/viewtopic.php?t=9349

At the end of the day you need to look at the meta-game odds as well as the individual odds of each race. You can pretty much guarantee you are going to lose some, even if you are always ahead when the money goes in.
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