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Old Jul 15, 2006, 8:46pm   #1
madscout
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Default Math Problem

I have posted an interesting math problem involving the hand below. If you are the first to get the correct answer you will receive an awesome prize. Please read the link for more details. On to the hand:

I have zero history with my opponent and have only been at the table for an orbit or two. Neither of us have gotten out of hand, but I have been playing aggressively.

Party $400NL 6max 6handed

My stack: $350, Villain covers

I open to $15 with pocket fives in MP , villain makes it 45$ on button, I call. (very marginal for set value I know.)

Flop ($95): A34r
I check, villain bets $60, I raise all-in to $305. Villain is getting slightly less than 2:1 on his call.

My thinking: My play really looks like a made hand, AK/33/44, or maybe even a tricky AA. It would be very difficult for him to call with big pocket pair lower than aces. When he does have AA or AK I still have some outs. Also, if I showdown my fives my image will be awesome.
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Old Jul 15, 2006, 9:19pm   #2
jimmytrick
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But we have an undefined variable. How much more confidently will you play if your image is awesome?
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Old Jul 15, 2006, 9:22pm   #3
Lord Mushroom
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My guess is the answer is somewhere between 49,4 and 49,6 percent.

Edit:
What the hell, I will take a chance and say it is 49,5.
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Old Jul 15, 2006, 9:42pm   #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jimmytrick
But we have an undefined variable. How much more confidently will you play if your image is awesome?
When I say positive expectation, I am referring to this one hand. Please ignore any +EV I may get in the future due to my 'enhanced' image.
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Old Jul 15, 2006, 9:43pm   #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lord Mushroom
My guess is the answer is somewhere between 49,4 and 49,6 percent.

Edit:
What the hell, I will take a chance and say it is 49,5.
Not even close. Bust out the calculator + poker stove.
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Old Jul 15, 2006, 10:00pm   #6
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54,7%?

Edit:
+\- 0,2 for simplifying the calculation.

Edit 2:
Sorry, ignore this post. It is wrong.
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Old Jul 15, 2006, 10:09pm   #7
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How about 45%?
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Old Jul 16, 2006, 3:25am   #8
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64.2%?
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Old Jul 16, 2006, 7:33am   #9
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45% is wrong too. Now I think it is 85%.
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Old Jul 16, 2006, 9:50am   #10
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Not sure, I've been trying for a while but it is really hard. (good job on your end )

Anyways, If he folds at least 70% of the time, you will WIN more times than him, but lose money in the long run.
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