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Old Jul 16, 2006, 2:20pm   #11
madscout
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Some of you have PM'ed me your reasoning and I think you guys are on the right track. I am posting some hints to push you in the right direction:

1) Calculate my equity against each of the hands in his range using the hand simulator. I used pokerstove because you can compare your hand to a range of hands, as opposed to one specific hand. (i.e. I can compare 55 vs AKo + AKs with no suits specified).

2) Calculate the probability of my opponent having each of the hands in his range. This is a combinations excercise. It turns out there are more combinations of AK than any other hand in his range.

3) Calculate my EV against each of my opponent's hands. For AA and AK you should just get a number. For KK-JJ it is a bit more complicated as there are three possible outcomes:

i) my opponent folds and I win what is currently in the pot
ii) my opponent calls and wins all of my money
iii) my opponent calls and I suck out to win the entire pot.

4) Calculate the total EV by combining steps 2 and 3.

5) Set EV = 0 and solve for 'x'!

Good luck!
Ryan
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Old Jul 16, 2006, 2:43pm   #12
sleipner1958
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70% ? Wrong I guess.
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Old Jul 16, 2006, 2:56pm   #13
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Another hint:

When my opponent folds I only 'win' the amount that was in the pot before I raised. You shouldn't count the raise I put in when calculating the expected value.

Ryan
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Old Jul 16, 2006, 3:48pm   #14
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II Try: 86%
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Old Jul 16, 2006, 5:17pm   #15
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Ok here comes my try:

Whatever Your opponent plays it is EVERY TIME -EV!!!

Your opponent has 6 chances of having AA. If he calls all the time You have an EV of -198,89 then ( 305 risk and a chance of round about 15% of winning 705 ( 400 net profit ) ).

Your opponent has 16 chances of having AK. Your EV if he calls all the time here is -120,65 ( 305 risk and a chance of round about 26% of winning 705 ( 400 net profit ) ).

He has also 18 chances of having JJ-KK. Best thing for u would be a fold from him and a profit of 155 ( the whole pot without risking Your 305 ). So if he folds all the time this makes an EV of 155.

If You calculate ( -198,89 * 6 + (-120,65) * 16 + 155 * 18 ) / 40 ( which is the number of possible hand combinations on his part ) this would give You an EV of - 8,34.

If Your opponent will call You x% of the time then Your EV will be even worst. If he calls You ALL THE TIME having JJ-KK then Your EV would be -132,99.

All calculations are done without taking rake into account.

Do I have an error or is this correct? Don´t know...
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Old Jul 16, 2006, 5:27pm   #16
sleipner1958
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III Try
Using the hand simulator: A34r flop 55 wins against:
AA:15%
AK:26%
KK:26%
QQ:26%
JJ:26%

Pot 6+45+45+60=156
Cases
3 AA combinations exp:0.15*461-0.85*305=-190
12 AK combinations exp: 0.26*461-0.74*305=-106
KK-JJ
Fold exp: X*156
Call exp: (1-X)*106

Equation
-3*190-12*106+18*(X*156-(1-X)*106)=0
<=>X=3750/4716=80%
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Old Jul 16, 2006, 5:34pm   #17
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sleipner1958
III Try
Using the hand simulator: A34r flop 55 wins against:
AA:15%
AK:26%
KK:26%
QQ:26%
JJ:26%

Pot 6+45+45+60=156
Cases
3 AA combinations exp:0.15*461-0.85*305=-190
12 AK combinations exp: 0.26*461-0.74*305=-106
KK-JJ
Fold exp: X*156
Call exp: (1-X)*106

Equation
-3*190-12*106+18*(X*156-(1-X)*106)=0
<=>X=3750/4716=80%
OK shame on me... Forget to take out the ace on the board so there are only 3 AA and 12 AK combinations... But why are the winning 461? You have the 155 ( or 156 in Your calculation ) plus 245 which the opponent has to pay for the all in which makes it 400 not 460 ( or 461 )...

Ok and then it will be 85%... 85,0468445045713% is the exact number

But that was said on the first page here... So thats wrong I guess?
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Old Jul 16, 2006, 5:37pm   #18
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gerrit2002
Your opponent has 6 chances of having AA.
Your opponent has 16 chances of having AK.
These hand ranges are off because there is an ace on the flop.
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Old Jul 16, 2006, 5:44pm   #19
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Quote:
Originally Posted by madscout
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gerrit2002
Your opponent has 6 chances of having AA.
Your opponent has 16 chances of having AK.
These hand ranges are off because there is an ace on the flop.
Yeah fault on my part. Corrected that.
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Old Jul 16, 2006, 5:54pm   #20
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edited
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