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Old Jul 16, 2006, 4:55pm   #21
sleipner1958
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I agree with Gerrit, 85%
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Old Jul 16, 2006, 4:59pm   #22
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I agree with Gerrit, 85%
Kind of a co-production after all
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Old Jul 16, 2006, 4:59pm   #23
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edited
I had temporarily posted a winner, but I need to go back and check my math now. I may have made the same mistake above.

I wrote it all out at work so I will check it tomorrow morning.

D'oh,
Ryan
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Old Jul 16, 2006, 6:08pm   #24
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Okay I'll take a shot at this.

.0121
.089
.133

$145
$450
$705

$241.82

$71.28
$149.58
$220.86

Okay, this seems like a -EV move overall. If he called you every time, your EV against Aces is 1.2% (13%*3/33), against AK 8.9% (24%*12/33) and against KK-JJ 13.3% (24%*18/33) you would end up with $165, obviously a loss.

So if he fold KK-JJ 100% of the time, your EV is .012*$705 + .089*$705 + .55*$155 or $71.28 + $84.48 = $155.76.

Y'know, it seems like my thinking is wrong because it is better if he calls you with KK-JJ than if he folds. Oh well, that was my stab at it. I want to know what the right answer is.
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Old Jul 16, 2006, 6:20pm   #25
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Does solving this problem help me become a better player

TR
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Old Jul 16, 2006, 7:07pm   #26
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Using the hand simulator: A34r flop 55 wins against:
AA:15%
AK:26%
KK:26%
QQ:26%
JJ:26%
Let's take the rake into account. Suppose rake=5%
Pot 5+45+45+60=155
Cases
3 AA combinations exp:0.95*0.15*400-0.85*305=-202.25
12 AK combinations exp: 0.95*0.26*400-0.74*305=-126.9
KK-JJ
Fold exp: 0.95*X*155=147.25*X
Call exp: -(1-X)*126.9

Equation
-3*202.25-12*126.9+18*(147.25*X-(1-X)*126.9)=0
<=>X=4413.75/4934.7=89.4%
Forgot the rakeback.

Madscout,would you like to check the Liz Lieu stuff:
http://www.pokertips.org/phpBB2/view...r=asc&start=30

And possibly check also my question concerning the Sklansky-Chubukov Ratings at this No Limit forum?
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Old Jul 16, 2006, 10:29pm   #27
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The_Ronin
Does solving this problem help me become a better player
Yes, by solving this problem you will learn to dissect hands more accurately thus reaching a more accurate answer to how the hands you dissect should have been played, thus resulting in playing similar hands to those you have dissected more optimal in the future.
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Old Jul 16, 2006, 11:01pm   #28
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lord Mushroom
Quote:
Originally Posted by The_Ronin
Does solving this problem help me become a better player
Yes, by solving this problem you will learn to dissect hands more accurately thus reaching a more accurate answer to how the hands you dissect should have been played, thus resulting in playing similar hands to those you have dissected more optimal in the future.
Exactly! I can think of one specific example from the WSOP last year:

I don't remember exactly how the hand went down, but one guy in MP raised preflop with something like AT, a late position guy came over the top all-in, and Matasow was faced with a difficult decision in the blinds with JJ. He had a read that the first player was pretty weak and thought he had AT or a lesser Ace. He figured the all-in guy for a AK/AQ and called, afterwards saying something like 'The only reason I called is because I figured I was 60/40."

His read was spot on and he was indeed ahead 60/40 against the all-in player. There's no way he could have came up with those numbers with out doing some math 'off-line', away from the tables.
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Old Jul 17, 2006, 3:46pm   #29
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Also i think a lot of the pro's have got some of the numbers memorised to make the calculations at the table a little quicker.
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Old Jul 17, 2006, 4:33pm   #30
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Winners.
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