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Old Jul 27, 2006, 2:07pm   #1
1idjack
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Default Sniffing out a set when you flop top pair or better?

I've run into this many times as I'm sure a lot of you have. Some opponents will just call call call my bets to the river leaving me to wonder if they're top pair/weak kicker or something else. With no raises on their behalf, how do you sniff out when something's fishy? Today for instance I had AKos and the flop comes 3KA. i'm betting 2/3 of the pot on the flop, turn and river just getting called all the way down. Should I have slowed down on the flop and checked? Sorry for the newbish sounding post.
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Old Jul 27, 2006, 3:39pm   #2
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Default Re: Sniffing out a set when you flop top pair or better?

Quote:
Originally Posted by 1idjack
I've run into this many times as I'm sure a lot of you have. Some opponents will just call call call my bets to the river leaving me to wonder if they're top pair/weak kicker or something else. With no raises on their behalf, how do you sniff out when something's fishy? Today for instance I had AKos and the flop comes 3KA. i'm betting 2/3 of the pot on the flop, turn and river just getting called all the way down. Should I have slowed down on the flop and checked? Sorry for the newbish sounding post.
Some important things to look at when you have a TPTK type of hand and are getting resistance:

1) Flop texture. Are there a lot of draws out there? Possible two-pair type of boards? A 27Jr board is a lot less drawy than a 8s 9s 3c type of board. If you get a ton of resistance on the first board it is more likely you are up against a set.

2) Player tendencies. Has your opponent been calling down with less than TPTK? If so, keep betting for value. Is he a very tight 'set miner'? If so, I check and try to keep the pot small. This way we can induce bluffs / 'value bets' from worse hands and hopefully not get stacked when he does have a set.

On the AK hand you mentioned, I am probably going broke against 33 unless have a HUGE read on your opponent. He was probably just check-calling in fear of AA or KK.
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Old Jul 27, 2006, 4:13pm   #3
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ok i have questions regarding position on two possible scenarios for the 3AK hand:

1) i'm first to act. with a flop like that i'd bet at least 2/3 to the pot size on the flop. if i'm called, do i fire another shot at the pot, or check and fold?

2) the opponent bets first. depending on the size of the pot, i must call? the only possible hand that could beat me would be AA or KK (unlikely) or the set of 3's. (possible at the skill levels i'm playing at. most of my fellow players would call even a substantial raise pre-flop with a pocket pair hoping they'll hit)
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Old Jul 27, 2006, 4:48pm   #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 1idjack
1) i'm first to act. with a flop like that i'd bet at least 2/3 to the pot size on the flop. if i'm called, do i fire another shot at the pot, or check and fold?
?

You have AK in the pocket and the board is AK3. You bet 2/3 pot and get called. After this you are considering check-folding??? You have top 2p!

Am I missing something here?
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Old Jul 27, 2006, 6:18pm   #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 1idjack
ok i have questions regarding position on two possible scenarios for the 3AK hand:

1) i'm first to act. with a flop like that i'd bet at least 2/3 to the pot size on the flop. if i'm called, do i fire another shot at the pot, or check and fold?
NO! never check and fold top two pair to a caller! that's throwing away a lot of value...depending on the level you play he could be calling w/ any ace, QJ or JT chasing a str8 draw or some bizarro weird thing w/ 88...shutting down w/ 2 pr. cuz you got called on the flop is a bad idea...

Quote:
Originally Posted by 1idjack
2) the opponent bets first. depending on the size of the pot, i must call? the only possible hand that could beat me would be AA or KK (unlikely) or the set of 3's. (possible at the skill levels i'm playing at. most of my fellow players would call even a substantial raise pre-flop with a pocket pair hoping they'll hit)
in position i'd raise...if he did hit a set most lower limit players will think: "ha! i have a set i'm gonna trap him!" and just call...then check to you on the turn...you bet they call...they check the river intending to check raise and if i don't fill up...depending on the texture of the board...i'll check behind...i've seen this play out time and again at 50NL and 100NL shorthand tables...i'm not saying checking behind is always a good idea...but working it into my game has saved me a lot of bets when i'm beat...just my opinion
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Old Jul 27, 2006, 7:06pm   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 1idjack
or the set of 3's. (possible at the skill levels i'm playing at. most of my fellow players would call even a substantial raise pre-flop with a pocket pair hoping they'll hit)
You say this like its a bad thing. If the stack sizes support a call with 33, hitting a 3 on the flop has huge implied odds.

Look at it this way, your opponent raises to 4xBB, he has 90 BB left in his stack. You call the 4xBB raise with 33 and have 90 BB left in your stack. Your odds of hitting a 3 on the flop are about 8:1 against. Your implied odds if you hit are 90BB:4BB (22.5:1). On a 3AK rainbow board it should be easy to get your opponents stack if he is holding AK.

I don't know the minimum stack size needed to make this a good call in the long term, but I think 50 BB is a safe guestimate. Nor do I know the minumim you need to extract each time you hit a set to break even.
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Old Jul 27, 2006, 7:17pm   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rickey
I don't know the minimum stack size needed to make this a good call in the long term, but I think 50 BB is a safe guestimate. Nor do I know the minumim you need to extract each time you hit a set to break even.
my rule when looking at the implied odds is 10x the raise...so to call a 4x BB pf raise we'd both have to have at least 40 BB's...for this reason i love playing small and middle pocket pairs...someone w/ an overpair, top pair, or 2 pair is very likely to pay you off with their entire stack if you hit...if you don't its a very easy hand to get rid of...
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Old Jul 27, 2006, 7:40pm   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by zolaboy
my rule when looking at the implied odds is 10x the raise...
10x sounds good to me, I'll start using that. Thanks.
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Old Jul 27, 2006, 7:44pm   #9
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not a problem...
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Old Jul 27, 2006, 9:26pm   #10
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One thing that makes sets really easy to sniff out that a lot of fish do a lower limit is they will minimum raise on a junk board. That is a good sign that someone has a set. Does not mean that they do but just watch the table for those type of players and that will save you some serious money. Just make sure that you are not the one in the pot when you learn this information.
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