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Old Aug 21, 2006, 3:17am   #1
TallJohn
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Default Betting underpair for value

I'm trying to get better at value-betting after some great hand analysis from madscout (shameless plug...take him up on his offer of free coaching if you're worried about leaks). Here's a situation that comes up often that I have trouble with.

Party Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (8 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)
Preflop: Hero is Button with J, J.
3 folds, MP2 raises, 1 fold, Hero 3-bets, 2 folds, MP2 calls.
Flop: (7.50 SB) 8, 2, A (2 players)
MP2 checks, Hero bets, MP2 calls.
Turn: (4.75 BB) 4 (2 players)
MP2 checks, Hero checks.
River: (4.75 BB) T (2 players)
MP2 checks, Hero checks.

Villain is 18.9/12.8/2.0/164. After his flop c/c, I estimated an even chance between him drawing and having A-something. Less likely but possible is pocket pair. First question: bet the turn? Either of his likely hands will at least call, and A with big enough kicker will probably raise. I'm nearly dead against Ax, and 4-1 ahead of drawing hands, so I figure my equity at about 40%--not enough to bet h/u. Is this right thinking?

So, thinking that I didn't have equity to bet, I checked the turn behind, planning to call a river bet. When villain checks again, should I bet? By my reasoning I'm even worse off than I was on the turn. A busted draw will fold, and I can't imagine a lower pair calling either given the 3-bet flop.

Comments/help welcome.
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Old Aug 21, 2006, 8:28am   #2
Ishbu3116
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I actually bet the turn there because of position. But after betting the flop and then checking the turn, I would imagine he would bet with any ace. So after he checks there I bet. He may have caught a ten with KT of diamonds on the river but that is unlikely.
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Old Aug 21, 2006, 11:25am   #3
Grinder
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Again more then one player I would check fold if I did not drop bother players on the flop bet.

In YOUR case you did fine.

Villan is not very aggressive (2.0 with a 18% VPIP means he is NOt that aggressive, just playing good cards). he might have a weakish ace.

Check call the river.
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Old Aug 21, 2006, 7:06pm   #4
madcow16
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PFA at 2.0 is aggressive enough to know that if you checked behind on the turn then his weak ace is good and he should bet the river. I think your line was fine but personally I would want to deny a free card to any potential draw out there and bet the turn. KdQd is definitely seeing a river so we do potentially miss a value bet on the turn. Check behind on the river.
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Old Aug 25, 2006, 6:50am   #5
madscout
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Thanks for the plug John.

I think the key decision for this hand is on the turn. With the way you played the hand, your point about a river bet not having much value is correct. A draw is just going to fold and an ace will certainly call. It is possible that your opponent missed his draw but hit a pair (Qd Td) and will likely call a bet, but this is a pretty small percentage of his hand range.

The turn decision comes down to reads. Will this opponent check/raise the turn with a draw? Will he bet the river with a busted draw if you check the turn? If either of these are true then checking is better. If your opponent is fairly passive when drawing, betting the turn is better. Would you agree with this analysis?

Thanks,
Ryan
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Old Aug 25, 2006, 6:51am   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ishbu3116 View Post
He may have caught a ten with KT of diamonds on the river but that is unlikely.
I just read this after I replied. Brain. Waves. Connected.
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Old Aug 27, 2006, 6:33am   #7
TallJohn
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If I was sure he was drawing I would definitely agree with your analysis. However, since he raised preflop, there's a real possibility that I'm beat by A-x. Should this change my thinking?
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