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Old Nov 02, 2006, 7:59pm   #1
acehole_76
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Default Two hands I have been thinking about

First I wasny involved in either hand, but I found both to be interesting:

1. 3 players left in a big MTT blinds 5,000/10,000 (going to 10,000/20,000 in 5 miniuts) Button has 8,000, Sb 700,000 after posting BB 175,000 after posting. Button folds and SB moves in BB looks down at TT. SB is the best palyer at the table, and is ultra-aggressive. Pay outs 1,100,000 600,000 330,00. Call or fold?

2. On the bubble with 10 players left at one table in a MTT that started with 108 players. Average stack 50,000. Button has 160,000 SB is chip leader (180,000), blinds at 4,000/8,000. Action folds to Button who makes 25,000 with A9s, SB calls BB folds. Flop A97, checked to button who makes it 35,000, and SB goes AI. his table is fille dwith good players. Call or fold?

EDIT: #1 is a major televised event, winning it brings more money then just the difference in prize money betweeen first and second, endorsments etc...
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fucking morons every one of you. there isn't a man in this village that i wouldn't feed into an incinerator for no reason other than to get rid of them.

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Last edited by acehole_76; Nov 03, 2006 at 1:01pm.
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Old Nov 02, 2006, 8:52pm   #2
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Call the first one, call the second one. YOu are probably to 2-1 favorite in the first one and most likely a huge favorite in the second one. You have an oppurtunity here to become a dominating chip leader and cripple the chip leader. If he has something that beats you hand more power to him but I do not see that being the case. You probably out flopped his AT pretty nicely there.
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Old Nov 02, 2006, 9:10pm   #3
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I also said call call, but the argument that has me thinking about these hands is:

1. Even if you double up here you will be out chipped HU agaisnt a better player, meaning you will get second more then first anyway so why chance it until you have assured yourself second.

2. If you fold you will still be double the average chip stack, there is little chance you will not make the money. The SB in this hand is risking going from big stack to out with what?
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obviously, it's always my fault whenever anyone does anything stupid around here.

fucking morons every one of you. there isn't a man in this village that i wouldn't feed into an incinerator for no reason other than to get rid of them.

Kc
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Old Nov 02, 2006, 9:19pm   #4
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Call both. If youre going to fold TT to an ultra aggressive player with an M of 5 after posting, what better hand are you waiting for? Against a good player, you can expect any pr. , any ace, all suited kings, and alot more that you beat and rarely are dominated by. If you want to win, youll have to chip away at the leader sometime. This is a good time, otherwise youll only have 10 hands until youre eaten away from the blinds. For the second hand, ill be surprised if youre beat here. If your opponent is good here, he could have any ace here, possible set (Only 3 hand combinations for each, and one for AA combination). But those are the only hands that beat you, and theres plenty you can beat here. folding is disastrous with top two after committing 1/3rd of your stack with it

EDIT on #1: I thought the button had 150K, lol. Ill probably still call this since the disparity between 2nd and 3rd isnt very high, and you still need to be willing to take the risk against someone who should be technically be pushing any two cards here.
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Old Nov 02, 2006, 9:55pm   #5
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After a lot of thought I decided, I am a fraud, all my talk of playing for the win went out the window in the face of a 7 figure payday. I would fold the first hand, and assure 2nd place before I try and take down the better player. 2nd hand I think is an easy call, if you are beat it is simply a cold deck.


ps both hands were called and I will post the results after a few more opinions.
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obviously, it's always my fault whenever anyone does anything stupid around here.

fucking morons every one of you. there isn't a man in this village that i wouldn't feed into an incinerator for no reason other than to get rid of them.

Kc
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Old Nov 03, 2006, 10:39am   #6
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I'd prooooobably fold the first hand, and certainly call the second one...
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Old Nov 03, 2006, 12:31pm   #7
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Add me to the fold, call camp.

In situation 1, it's likely that you have the best hand, but it's also likely that folding guarantees at least second, whereas taking this gamble either guarantees 3rd (20%-30%) or means you have a fight for 1st / 2nd (70-80%). Since the other player is better than me, let's be generous and say I will win 50% of the time if I win the TT hand. Now if we knew prize totals, we can start doing some real EV calculations. Just eyeballing it, I want at least second, and then I can look for my double up

In situation 2, I think his range includes a lot of hands we beat and a few hands we lose to. Call.
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Old Nov 03, 2006, 12:58pm   #8
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After going over my notes I have made a change to the first hand and added the payouts.
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Originally Posted by killcrazy View Post
obviously, it's always my fault whenever anyone does anything stupid around here.

fucking morons every one of you. there isn't a man in this village that i wouldn't feed into an incinerator for no reason other than to get rid of them.

Kc
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Old Nov 03, 2006, 1:22pm   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by acehole_76 View Post
First I wasny involved in either hand, but I found both to be interesting:

1. 3 players left in a big MTT blinds 5,000/10,000 (going to 10,000/20,000 in 5 miniuts) Button has 8,000, Sb 700,000 after posting BB 175,000 after posting. Button folds and SB moves in BB looks down at TT. SB is the best palyer at the table, and is ultra-aggressive. Pay outs 1,100,000 600,000 330,00. Call or fold?

2. On the bubble with 10 players left at one table in a MTT that started with 108 players. Average stack 50,000. Button has 160,000 SB is chip leader (180,000), blinds at 4,000/8,000. Action folds to Button who makes 25,000 with A9s, SB calls BB folds. Flop A97, checked to button who makes it 35,000, and SB goes AI. his table is fille dwith good players. Call or fold?

EDIT: #1 is a major televised event, winning it brings more money then just the difference in prize money betweeen first and second, endorsments etc...
1. Muck. A bird in the hand is better than a flock in the bush.
2. Call of course.
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Old Nov 03, 2006, 2:40pm   #10
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2nd hand is a definite push, no doubt about it.

1st hand, more difficult. For me personally, I would want to call knowing its the right action, but I'll probably fold. Utility of Money, I would want to guarantee that extra $270,000, and not risk it for what I'd think at best a slight edge (60/40). If I were a professional and that 270K is less (not no) of a difference to me, then it's a call.
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