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Old Nov 03, 2006, 4:55pm   #11
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1. Fold, instantly. You're not enough ahead to justify missing 300k. It's entirely possible I'd fold Aces in this spot.

2. Weird. Is the board rainbow? Seems like a situation where the SB is trying to take advantage of the bubble and the guideline of not messing with other big stacks to defend his blind, but I have to give him credit for something. He's in a good situation to trap with a set, so I'm thinking straight draw or something along the lines of AK. 97 is possible too. I think I call.
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Old Nov 03, 2006, 4:57pm   #12
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Please don't fold aces in that spot..

*crosses fingers, hoping Hustlr doesn't come in and uses ICM to prove folding aces is correct*
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Old Nov 03, 2006, 4:58pm   #13
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Originally Posted by Frogboy4L View Post
1. Fold, instantly. You're not enough ahead to justify missing 300k. It's entirely possible I'd fold Aces in this spot.
I was wondering if someone was going to break out the old I would fold AA here. I would not fold AA, in fact I would insta call, but I would fold KK.
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Old Nov 03, 2006, 4:59pm   #14
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Please don't fold aces in that spot..

*crosses fingers, hoping Hustlr doesn't come in and uses ICM to prove folding aces is correct*

LOL
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fucking morons every one of you. there isn't a man in this village that i wouldn't feed into an incinerator for no reason other than to get rid of them.

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Old Nov 03, 2006, 8:07pm   #15
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600K out of 930K is 64.5%.

"TT" against "random" is 75.012% equity.
"AA" against "random" is 85.204% equity.

Against "22+,A2s+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,ATo+,KTo+,QTo+,JTo":
"AA" - 84.392% equity.
"KK" - 76.459% equity.
"QQ" - 71.090% equity.
"JJ" - 65.675% equity.
"TT" - 60.324% equity.
"AKs" - 61.821% equity.

Is KK or QQ far enough ahead for one to call with it? Depends how much 270K means to you. But TT, it's ahead, but not enough.

*Stats according to PokerStove*
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Old Nov 03, 2006, 8:09pm   #16
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After noticing the payouts, id fold the first hand. I expected 2nd to be 6X and 3rd to be around 4.5X. I guess something blurred my judgement.
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Old Nov 03, 2006, 9:03pm   #17
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Here are the results:

1. BB called with his TT, and was agaisnt A8o the hand held up, but alas he was smoked by the better player whan it became HU. Poor basterd had to settle for $600,000.

2. The SB had 77 and the button didnt get a A or 9 on the turn and river and was the bubble boy .

I fold every hand but AA in #1, and I call in #2.
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Old Nov 03, 2006, 9:09pm   #18
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Okay, having read what the hell ICM is, and doing some calculation according to it, the result are:

Using opp. range of cards as above ( "22+,A2s+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,ATo+,KTo+,QTo+,JTo" ).

Folding gives 0.338 of the prize pool.
Calling with AA is worth 0.3582.
Calling with KK is worth 0.3498.
Calling with QQ is worth 0.3273.
...
Calling with TT is worth 0.3023.


Conclusion, call with AA & KK, fold otherwise.
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Old Nov 03, 2006, 9:28pm   #19
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I'm pretty sure the big stack is pushing any two in that scenario. I would be.
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Old Nov 04, 2006, 12:27am   #20
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Okay...

AA vs random: 84.93% win, .0027% tie, 14.52% lose

Fold: Stacks of 8000, 715000, 175000: 33.82% of price pool

Call, win: 8000, 525000, 365000: 39.32%

Call, split: 8000, 707500, 182500: 34.04

Call, lose: 8000, 890000, 0: 0

(.3932 * .8493) + (.0027 * .3404) + (.1452 * 0)

= (.3339) + (.0009) + (0)

= .3348

= 33.48% of prize pool

Folding aces is +ev.
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