THE FORUMS


German ForumsGeneral DiscussionStrategyFrench Forum

Go Back   PokerTips.org Forums > Strategy > Limit Hold'em and Miscellaneous Strategy

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old Nov 03, 2006, 11:42pm   #21
KTC
Grinder
 
KTC's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: UK
Posts: 985
Reputation: 85
KTC will become famous soon enough
Default

Erm no.

Prize pool: 1st - 0.54187, 2nd - 0.29557, 3rd - 0.16256

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 85.2037 % 84.93% 00.27% { AA }
Hand 2: 14.7963 % 14.52% 00.27% { random }

Fold: Stacks of 8000, 715000, 175000: 0.338

Call, win: 8000, 520000, 370000: 0.3947

Call, split: 8000, 705000, 185000: 0.341

Call, lose: 8000, 890000, 0: 0.16256

(0.3947 * 0.8493) + (0.341 * 0.0027) + (0.16256 * 0.148 ) = 0.36019829

You're getting various numbers mixed up, but most importanly, you forgot 3rd place get $330K, not nothing.

Last edited by KTC; Nov 03, 2006 at 11:45pm.
KTC est déconnecté   Reply With Quote

Sponsored Links
Don't like this ad? Register to make it go away!

Old Nov 04, 2006, 12:33am   #22
Frogboy4L
spewing station
 
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: Fading the flush draw
Posts: 1,497
Reputation: 0
Frogboy4L
Send a message via AIM to Frogboy4L
Default

*scratches head*

Damn.
__________________
Blogging again, updated frequently. Annotations of spew:

(the link works now)

frogboy4Lpoker.blogspot.com
Frogboy4L est déconnecté   Reply With Quote
Old Nov 04, 2006, 2:26am   #23
Hustlr
║▌║█║▌║▌││║▌║
 
Hustlr's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: Dayton, OH
Posts: 3,642
Reputation: 878
Hustlr is a splendid one to beholdHustlr is a splendid one to beholdHustlr is a splendid one to beholdHustlr is a splendid one to beholdHustlr is a splendid one to beholdHustlr is a splendid one to beholdHustlr is a splendid one to behold
Send a message via ICQ to Hustlr Send a message via AIM to Hustlr
Default

Is busting out on this hand worth the 2.3% increase in EV?

Like it was said earlier in this post, how much does the difference in prize money mean to you? This isnt a hand from a $27 SNG when you are 16 tabling. It's hard to always justify going with ICM in the case of a slightly +EV play when calling and losing this hand would be devastating. I'm not saying to play scared, but different players here have different goals.

I dont know, I posted a similar hand to this before. Obviously anyone can crunch the numbers to see what the +EV play is. But the difference in more is so huge, you just have to decide for yourself if you are ok with playing for an huge increase or playing for a win.
Hustlr est déconnecté   Reply With Quote
Old Nov 04, 2006, 2:57am   #24
acehole_76
I found Kc...............
 
acehole_76's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: now bring back northview
Posts: 7,632
Reputation: 2310
acehole_76 has a reputation beyond reputeacehole_76 has a reputation beyond reputeacehole_76 has a reputation beyond reputeacehole_76 has a reputation beyond reputeacehole_76 has a reputation beyond reputeacehole_76 has a reputation beyond reputeacehole_76 has a reputation beyond reputeacehole_76 has a reputation beyond reputeacehole_76 has a reputation beyond reputeacehole_76 has a reputation beyond reputeacehole_76 has a reputation beyond repute
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Frogboy4L View Post
Okay...

AA vs random: 84.93% win, .0027% tie, 14.52% lose

Fold: Stacks of 8000, 715000, 175000: 33.82% of price pool

Call, win: 8000, 525000, 365000: 39.32%

Call, split: 8000, 707500, 182500: 34.04

Call, lose: 8000, 890000, 0: 0

(.3932 * .8493) + (.0027 * .3404) + (.1452 * 0)

= (.3339) + (.0009) + (0)

= .3348

= 33.48% of prize pool

Folding aces is +ev.
Quick lesson, everytime you do math that says it is correct to fold AA preflop recheck it, and if it still says fold check it again .
__________________
Quote:
Originally Posted by killcrazy View Post
obviously, it's always my fault whenever anyone does anything stupid around here.

fucking morons every one of you. there isn't a man in this village that i wouldn't feed into an incinerator for no reason other than to get rid of them.

Kc
acehole_76 est déconnecté   Reply With Quote
Old Nov 04, 2006, 3:02am   #25
acehole_76
I found Kc...............
 
acehole_76's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: now bring back northview
Posts: 7,632
Reputation: 2310
acehole_76 has a reputation beyond reputeacehole_76 has a reputation beyond reputeacehole_76 has a reputation beyond reputeacehole_76 has a reputation beyond reputeacehole_76 has a reputation beyond reputeacehole_76 has a reputation beyond reputeacehole_76 has a reputation beyond reputeacehole_76 has a reputation beyond reputeacehole_76 has a reputation beyond reputeacehole_76 has a reputation beyond reputeacehole_76 has a reputation beyond repute
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Hustlr View Post
Is busting out on this hand worth the 2.3% increase in EV?

Like it was said earlier in this post, how much does the difference in prize money mean to you? This isnt a hand from a $27 SNG when you are 16 tabling. It's hard to always justify going with ICM in the case of a slightly +EV play when calling and losing this hand would be devastating. I'm not saying to play scared, but different players here have different goals.

I dont know, I posted a similar hand to this before. Obviously anyone can crunch the numbers to see what the +EV play is. But the difference in more is so huge, you just have to decide for yourself if you are ok with playing for an huge increase or playing for a win.
On another post I said "I dont care about money, it is just winning that matters" well turns out I am a liar and pussy when faced with a 250,000 hand I am folding everything but AA here.

A big part that I think is over looked here is that even if you double up then elimninate the short stack you are still HU with a better player who has you out chipped. More often then not you will still take second, which means you took that huge risk for nothing.

How about the cold deck on the second hand....
__________________
Quote:
Originally Posted by killcrazy View Post
obviously, it's always my fault whenever anyone does anything stupid around here.

fucking morons every one of you. there isn't a man in this village that i wouldn't feed into an incinerator for no reason other than to get rid of them.

Kc
acehole_76 est déconnecté   Reply With Quote
Reply

Bookmarks

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Forum Jump



All times are GMT. The time now is 3:11pm. vBulletin 3.7.4 Copyright ©2000 - 2017, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.