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Old Nov 27, 2006, 8:33pm   #1
Axis of Evil
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Default When a perfect read goes bad...

I know the feelings here on bad beat stories but this isn't just a beat. It is the result of nearly an hour of observation, getting pushed around, making a perfect read and not wearing my tin foil hat...lol.

PokerStars Game #7199815899: Tournament #36807466, $20+$2 Hold'em No Limit - Level IV (50/100) - 2006/11/27 - 16:12:13 (ET)
Table '36807466 1' 9-max Seat #8 is the button
Seat 1: el_pedrin0 (1280 in chips)
Seat 2: Autavia (4175 in chips)
Seat 5: Vampire Baby (1335 in chips)
Seat 6: Nutsponge (1335 in chips)
Seat 7: Pike (2210 in chips)
Seat 8: thesteve42 (3165 in chips)
el_pedrin0: posts small blind 50
Autavia: posts big blind 100
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Vampire Baby [Ks 9h]
-----------
Now I know K9o is a marginal hand UTG but this table was playing really tight and so I made the call.
-----------
Vampire Baby: calls 100
Nutsponge: calls 100
Pike: folds
thesteve42: folds
el_pedrin0: folds
Autavia: checks
*** FLOP *** [Tc 9d 7d]
Autavia: checks
---------
I got a peice of the flop and so wanted to test the waters with a small bet. I know Nutsponge had been raising Ax pre-flop and that he would bet the hell out of second best pair and drive me off of my hand. He had done it all game and so I bet 100, which may have been too little in hindsight.
----------
Vampire Baby: bets 100
Nutsponge: raises 1135 to 1235 and is all-in
Autavia: folds
---------
I knew Nut didn't have an ace and I took a chance that he didn't hit the straight. I was convinced he was holding a 9 and so my K9 very well could be the winner, and so I called all-in.
---------

Vampire Baby: calls 1135 and is all-in
*** TURN *** [Tc 9d 7d] [4s]
*** RIVER *** [Tc 9d 7d 4s] [Qs]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Vampire Baby: shows [Ks 9h] (a pair of Nines)
Nutsponge: shows [Qc 9c] (two pair, Queens and Nines)
Nutsponge collected 2820 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 2820 | Rake 0
Board [Tc 9d 7d 4s Qs]
Seat 1: el_pedrin0 (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 2: Autavia (big blind) folded on the Flop
Seat 5: Vampire Baby showed [Ks 9h] and lost with a pair of Nines
Seat 6: Nutsponge showed [Qc 9c] and won (2820) with two pair, Queens and Nines
Seat 7: Pike folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 8: thesteve42 (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)

Even if I could see the guys cards before the flop, which I could in my head, there is no accounting for the so-called "random" draw...lol. I don't normally even play K9 unless I am in late position so I guess I did it to myself.
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Old Nov 27, 2006, 9:12pm   #2
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I love to stick it in the ear of these thieves who basically think they can run over everyone.

But, that was a mighty thin edge.

You shouldn't enter the pot utg without a raise, IMO. Betting such a small amount on the flop is a sure fire way to get a laggy donk to make a move.

I guess I could say, good job of trapping.

But you aren't going to make any money playing like that. IMHO.
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Old Nov 28, 2006, 12:28am   #3
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I feel for you Axis.

You get those guys who go all in on ragged boards when you know if they had a set they wouldnt try to push you out.

So yeah, unlucky.
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Old Nov 28, 2006, 2:08am   #4
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Sucks man. Especially when you have so good a read on someone you can put him on an exact hand or two that you can beat... or beat until he catches, anyway.

But I find it funny how you assumed the hand I posted (the cracked aces) was 'just a bad beat' and not the 'perfect execution of a hand based on a read'. How your hand is so different from mine eludes me. If anything, you caught a guy overplaying his hand because you had a good read on him. Very skillful play indeed, and I don't think the fact that you lost means you should re-evaluate your play: if anything, it should instill confidence for you that you had the correct read. I'm not here to tell you to re-evaluate your play because to me that's a ridiculous deduction from the play/result of this hand.

In my hand, I made a player make the mistake in the first place (I didn't just catch him doing it), which takes far more skill especially when it's a good player (apparently he's good anyway - he played like a donkey against me though, lol) you're tricking, and yet you tell me to 're-evaluate my play'. LOL.

The other difference is I recognize that this hand is a bad beat, because I see no shame in taking a bad beat, or, if it is at least a reasonably bad beat (not a coinflip or something), posting that hand. And admitting I'm posting a bad beat.

You're masking your bad beat with the idea that 'it was a perfect read'. And knowing my opponent had KK/QQ and would be tricked into calling a massive overshove with deepish stacks at $400nl is what... luck? If it was luck, how come Shads knew *exactly* what my thinking was, without me telling him?! I thought mine was an excellent read combined with an effective use of the psychology of the game. Oh well, I guess you might be right it was just an incorrect play on my part or just some bad beat I'm posting. But your hand, your hand, is so different, and so much more.
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Old Nov 28, 2006, 2:44am   #5
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Well the fact that I lost does mean I need to re-evaluate my play, because a player should always be re-evaluating everything. That's all I said to you, in the nicest and most non-confrontational way that I could. I appreciate the advice of those that find flaws in my betting pattern and is really why I even posted this hand. I'm not sure my comment to you warranted three paragraphs of rehashing your particular bad beat. Obvioulsy it bothered you that I might suggest to take a look at your game and approach. Of course pocket aces are sort of a no brainer most of the time, but there is always something to learn instead of being content that the read was good but the luck was bad. It will eventually happen again so maybe there is a way to avoid it in the future, such as with a bigger raise on my part, or whatever.

I almost never post hand histories because anything I may have said in the past comes roaring back from those that don't want to hear that advice or comment. Just remember, there is no shame in asking others if your play was bad. What they say should be taken with a grain of salt since you asked the question in the first place. This particular hand stood out to me because I knew what my opponent was holding and someday down the road I may not want that call even though I am sure I am ahead.
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Old Nov 28, 2006, 3:31am   #6
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I may not want that call even though I am sure I am ahead.
what the hell is wrong with you
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Old Nov 28, 2006, 7:35am   #7
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Good read, unfortunate result. Although I don't really like the way you played this hand, there's no arguing that it did get you in a good position on the flop.
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Old Nov 28, 2006, 8:31am   #8
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Taking all reads into account I still don't get it why you make such a play.
Are you that sure he would make a different bet with J10?

The UTG limp with K9o is horrible IMO. You don't have the chips to play around. What would you do if someone made a 4xBB raise after you limped? The table being tight is no excuse for limping UTG with a small stack and a crap hand.
If you do want to play it, you should play it more aggressive. If the table is that tight you could make a 3xBB raise and take some blinds because with K9 you don't really want to see a flop.
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Old Nov 28, 2006, 9:40am   #9
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The real issue here is correct or incorrect play, right?

If the objective is to earn, and it should be, then this is incorrect play.

So what if you had a read?

This is not a cash game format. To earn playing STTs you must play multiple tables or play high buyins. Even when playing $1100s you must play fundamentally sound.

It is not fundamentally sound to call off 1/13th of your stack utg with a very weak hand such as you did here Axis.

I admire you Axis for your focus on getting and using reads. That is real poker. But you should be doing this in a sensible way. STTs are shallow stack poker and you must play power poker. Reads and tricky play can never overcome the structure.

Edit: PT and PAHUD is all you need to get reads at this level anyway. I suggest you invest.

To deal with a donkey like Nutsponge you either make a hand and trap or simply come over the top and make him lay down. Both of these plays are far more situational than read dependant (as in reading his holding in a specific hand).

So, to make it clear, it is very valuable in STTs that you play correctly according to situations. You will not be able to overcome the handicap you create for yourself by inappropriately entering pots by playing well post flop. It is a mathematical impossibility.

Harrington, if you want a name source, speaks of the most important decision you make is whether or not to enter a pot.

I think the second most important decision, and it is one that is so fundamental that many forget it, is how you enter a pot. Limp, call, raise or re-raise.

If you are playing marginal cards you must raise. It is quite simple, and if you fail to do that it is impossible to compensate, you will be a loser long term.

If you play one gazillon STTs limping K9o utg would be correct exactly 0.00% of the time.

So take that away from this and play correctly. Then use your (better than average) reading skills in situations where it counts.

Again, hand reading in STTs is not as important as in cash games because of the shallow stacks. Once you are past the early levels there are only a couple of decisions per hand.

Structure rules. It is like fishing. Fish the structure. If you fish in open water you can't overcome the lack of fish by good technique. If you fish the structure that contains the fish you will catch fish even if you don't understand how to set a hook. The fish will hook themselves.

So, please play correctly in the future because this hand history gives me heartburn.
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Old Nov 28, 2006, 6:33pm   #10
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"If you play one gazillon STTs limping K9o utg would be correct exactly 0.00% of the time."

Oh really?. So if I limp in with K9o and up flops KK9 and other players think their AK is good and bet hard, that is incorrect? What about limping once out of a gazillion times just to change things up and not be predictable? I only wanted to see the flop on this hand, which I did. I don't want to try and dominate with K9o because I had been doing that with much better hands and someone was waiting for their chance to get me, plus it was a fold-fest so I might only be up against one other player. The flop comes, by my read I know I am ahead and so I call the all-in.

The majority of your response was pretty good stuff JT, and I appreciate it, but you lost me once it was obvious that something was personal. Let it go already. I'm sorry I didn't tell you how great you were for losing with aces. If my post is giving you heartburn then stop responding, or even reading it in the first place.

To the person that thinks I am nuts for not always wanting a caller when I am ahead, a perfect example would be when my tournament life is one the line and I have like 6 outs while my opponents is only barely behind and has like 26 outs. Being ahead pre-flop is not the be-all-to-end-all, at least in my opinion, especially when deeper in the hand almost any card will improve my opponent.
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