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View Poll Results: Do they fold and I win?
Yes, they both fold 2 25.00%
No, one calls / raises 6 75.00%
Voters: 8. You may not vote on this poll

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Old Jan 13, 2007, 9:05am   #1
ryanb9
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PokerStars Game #7910976475: Hold'em No Limit ($0.10/$0.25) - 2007/01/13 - 04:54:57 (ET)
Table 'Europa V' 6-max Seat #4 is the button
Seat 1: Nebbie512 ($38.35 in chips)
Seat 2: ahndrasou ($7.15 in chips)
Seat 3: tilman1234 ($17.80 in chips)
Seat 4: ChipLeaderer ($24.65 in chips)
Seat 5: ryanb9 ($26.95 in chips)
Seat 6: nemostar ($26.75 in chips)
ryanb9: posts small blind $0.10
nemostar: posts big blind $0.25
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to ryanb9 [Kd Jd]
Nebbie512: folds
ahndrasou: folds
tilman1234: calls $0.25
ChipLeaderer: folds
ryanb9: calls $0.15
nemostar: checks
*** FLOP *** [9d 6d 8s]
ryanb9: bets $0.25
nemostar: raises $0.50 to $0.75 quick raise
tilman1234: calls $0.75 think 1 sec, call
ryanb9: calls $0.50 i think for about 2-3 seconds on this call, and before every other action untill the river...
*** TURN *** [9d 6d 8s] [6h]
ryanb9: checks
nemostar: bets $0.75 quick
tilman1234: calls $0.75 QUICK call
ryanb9: calls $0.75
*** RIVER *** [9d 6d 8s 6h] [2c]
ryanb9: checks
nemostar: checks quick check
tilman1234: bets $4 thinks - bets
ryanb9: raises $10.25 to $14.25 -- i think, then im like... well "tilman1234" has a busted flush draw... the nemo guy might have a boat for all i know... but i think 70% of the time he folds.

Basically i have just been playen 25NL for too long to not try to start making moves is how i feel... i mean if i lose the 14 thats fine, but if i win this pot... im feeling very good for making a read and going with it... which is what im really trying to go for these days.

prior stats / reads... no reads except for bet sizes and time taken to act.... durring this hand. And i do have numbers on these guys but i'm not even looking as this hand is being played... i dono why i just didnt ... was lazy at the moment i guess.

what you guys think?
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Old Jan 13, 2007, 9:37am   #2
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I'm trying very hard, but I just can't imagine that you would've posted this hand if you'd lost. So the real question is, do they fold or call with J high?
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Old Jan 13, 2007, 12:57pm   #3
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Im for the "one calls" options. But...give me some stats on you and them..and it might be a totally different thing. If you've got a very tight image and they are tight too, it might work.
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Old Jan 13, 2007, 1:39pm   #4
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usually people fold to big bets on the river unless

- they have a monster
- they are morons
- they know you are a moron

since the bet on the turn indicates that nobody has a monster, you eighter win or case 2 applies. I honestly hope 3 doesnt, like someone calls with A-high and scoops, cause then ure the, well, moron.
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Old Jan 13, 2007, 3:57pm   #5
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Pretty sure tillman has the boat or the straight. Lots of low limit players are notorious for slowplaying straights/sets with obvious flush draws on the board. In any case, given the limp of tillman which defines him to an average range of pocket pairs, suited connectors, and/or maybe KJ/KQ the like.

JT once said don't play a big pot without any reads. Well, I'm a firm believer. So don't try to make a big play into a pot you have invested little on. There are very few hands that bet $4 on the river and I'm pretty sure nemo has nothing cept maybe a top or middle pair or perhaps the open ended straight draw.

Also, I think you might be take into account the timing of their actions too much. I find this to be unreliable online because of connection problems/multi-tablers/just the way they play, so I think it's correct not to put too much stock into it.

All in all, I'm pretty sure folding here outweighs taking tillman out of his range with a re-raise because your raise makes no sense either. You basically mirrored his hand and I see no believable hand for you to have.

//edit

The only way I see justifying this play is if you had notes that he bets very aggressively when shown weakness AND shows that he can lay down a hand like top pair.
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Old Jan 13, 2007, 7:30pm   #6
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I agree with V. When your trying to rereaise bluff you have to be confident that it will work. In this case your betting 14 to win 10 or so, for this play to be +EV you have to take the pot 1.5x more than it doesn't work. Without reads its hard to be sure enough for this play to work.
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Old Jan 13, 2007, 7:42pm   #7
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Quote:
i mean if i lose the 14 I've lost half a buyin and screwed up my winrate for no good reason, but if i win this pot... im feeling very lucky that the guy who raised the flop and bet the turn and river didn't have anything.


Fixed.

I have a question. When you say you're beating 25 NL, are you beating it because you're playing better cards preflop and making correct plays postflop regarding value betting, and letting other people stack off king high on a bluff?

I started doing stupid shit like this too. Then I stopped when I realized I was being retarded and could just get two big cards and bet them.
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Old Jan 13, 2007, 7:46pm   #8
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To be honest this bluff is definitely not believable, you make a weak lead on a draw heavy flop and flat call the raise with a cold caller, then you check call a weak turn bet and CRAI on the river. There is literally no strong hand that could be deduced from the way you played it so your bluff will get called a lot if your opponents take a second to think. The only way this could be profitable is if you have a good read that your opponent often plays missed draws like this - but ofc you didn't have that.
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Old Jan 13, 2007, 8:27pm   #9
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Dont know what youre trying to represent here, but I would probably call you with any 9, execpt if I already saw you slowplaying sets or str8 in super draw heavy board.

Bad spot.
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Old Jan 13, 2007, 8:46pm   #10
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I will somtimes let a card come off on a dangerous board with a hand like a set. This is done becasue then players think I ma bluffing on the later streets when I raise them. Also I can lay down a set if I feel it is beat (mostly I am talking aobut live so I cen watch them when the turn cames). So this play from me could be a full house or quads. Having said that I dont know if you have down this, and I doubt anyone at 25nl would notice. Also I am sure this bluff will work agaisnt most players here, but I good players will not think what can I bet they will think what would you bet like this if they dont come up with anything they call:

Seat 1: jalkdog (3915 in chips)
Seat 2: BigBonnie97 (21457 in chips)
Seat 3: PatMicMac (15903 in chips)
Seat 4: acehole_76 (21708 in chips)
Seat 5: ch000000ch (10245 in chips)
Seat 6: godfather_AA (9515 in chips)
Seat 7: jrose74 (24367 in chips)
Seat 8: robinuk111 (12679 in chips)
Seat 9: shortypaul (13295 in chips)
jalkdog: posts the ante 75
BigBonnie97: posts the ante 75
PatMicMac: posts the ante 75
acehole_76: posts the ante 75
ch000000ch: posts the ante 75
godfather_AA: posts the ante 75
jrose74: posts the ante 75
robinuk111: posts the ante 75
shortypaul: posts the ante 75
jalkdog: posts small blind 600
BigBonnie97: posts big blind 1200
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to acehole_76 [As 7s]
PatMicMac: folds
BigBonnie97 said, "like butta"
acehole_76: raises 1200 to 2400
ch000000ch: folds
godfather_AA: folds
BigBonnie97 said, "jrose is clearly a donk"
jrose74: folds
robinuk111: folds
shortypaul: folds
jalkdog: folds
BigBonnie97: calls 1200
*** FLOP *** [Th 7c 5h]
BigBonnie97: checks
acehole_76: bets 2400
BigBonnie97: calls 2400
*** TURN *** [Th 7c 5h] [8c]
BigBonnie97: checks
acehole_76: checks
*** RIVER *** [Th 7c 5h 8c] [5c]
BigBonnie97: bets 16582 and is all-in
acehole_76: calls 16582

He had KQ
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