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Old Apr 02, 2007, 7:06am   #1
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Default $25NL: TPTK facing river raise

POKERSTARS GAME #9206301071: HOLD'EM NO LIMIT ($0.10/$0.25) - 2007/04/01 - 21:17:28 (ET)
Table 'Eros III' 6-max Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: firewata ($20.20 in chips)
Seat 2: angusgmelb ($27.30 in chips)
Seat 3: Corey Wilson ($93.90 in chips)
Seat 5: jster9 ($9.55 in chips)
Seat 6: Lethal_edgE1 ($32.10 in chips)
angusgmelb: posts small blind $0.10
Corey Wilson: posts big blind $0.25
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to angusgmelb [Ks Ac]
jster9: calls $0.25
Lethal_edgE1: folds
firewata: calls $0.25
angusgmelb: raises $1.25 to $1.50
Corey Wilson: calls $1.25
jster9: folds
firewata: folds
*** FLOP *** [2h 2c Ah]
angusgmelb: bets $2
Corey Wilson: calls $2
*** TURN *** [2h 2c Ah] [8s]
angusgmelb: bets $4
Corey Wilson: calls $4
*** RIVER *** [2h 2c Ah 8s] [6c]
angusgmelb: bets $5
Corey Wilson: raises $10.25 to $15.25

Corey was a LAG preflop/fairly but not extremely passive postflop player (53/17/1.25) who had been getting very lucky. He had generally been folding to my preflop raises so I didn't put him on total trash (ie he is unlikely to have a 2). His calling on the flop and turn smelled like a weaker ace to me, and the raise on the river surprised me. He had generally been betting small with his weak hands and big with his strong hands, but he did also seem to be the kind of player who might think top pair was the nuts on this board.

I think I am probably beat and at a guess would put him on A8, A6 or maybe 88, but getting 3:1, do I call here based on the possibility that he is either bluffing with something like a busted heart draw (I had been folding a lot to raises on this table so he might see me as bluffable) or making a stupid belated value raise with AK/AQ/AJ or a pocket pair? (I had seen him make quite a few questionable bets on the river, none as big as this though.) I know this is read-dependant, but how big of a donkey does he have to be for me to call here?

Also, should I have tried to keep the pot smaller throughout the hand (if so how)?

Last edited by angusg; Apr 02, 2007 at 7:12am.
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Old Apr 02, 2007, 2:15pm   #2
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seedload is on a distinguished road

I don't see how you can fold this. You bet 5 bucks into a 15 dollar pot at the end. He probably senced weakness and raised for value. Call. Especially getting 3-1. If he hit a hand, then so be it. Your small river bet actually saved you money.

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