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Old Apr 24, 2007, 3:28pm   #1
Caerbannog
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Default What would you do?

Seeing as it was my opponants very first hand, I didnt have any read and had to go on what I believed was the best in the long term.

Table 'Alzirr III' 9-max Seat #7 is the button
Seat 1: kablonk ($24.65 in chips)
Seat 2: xsbfd ($4.45 in chips)
Seat 3: r4lle ($72.40 in chips)
Seat 4: royalle ($24.75 in chips)
Seat 5: Caerbannog1 ($35.85 in chips)
Seat 6: FanBeast ($75.35 in chips)
Seat 7: Topbar ($14.05 in chips)
Seat 8: The7thHeaven ($27.80 in chips)
Seat 9: jontsef ($25 in chips)
The7thHeaven: posts small blind $0.10
jontsef: posts big blind $0.25

*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Caerbannog1 [Qs Qc]
kablonk: folds
xsbfd: folds
r4lle: calls $0.25
royalle: folds
Caerbannog1: raises $1 to $1.25
FanBeast: folds
Topbar: folds
The7thHeaven: folds
jontsef: raises $3.50 to $4.75
r4lle: folds
Caerbannog1: folds
jontsef collected $2.85 from pot

A (SLPP) player limps in from early postion. Seeing as I am playing (TAA) I raise it 5xBB, knowing that the player who limped would call, and hoping that the bet is big enough for the (LAA) behind me to fold.

With the BB raising it 3x what I had bet out of position, he is either a maniac or is holding AA or KK. Even if he only has AK he is still live and is probably going to bet the flop putting me in a tricky position.

Now those of you who are thinking how can you fold QQ in position. my reasoning for this is due to me not having any read on the palyer. if I hit a set, how can I know I am going to get all his chips? How do I know that he is not going to continuation bet with AK if he hits nothing. In the long run I believe I was dead to 2 cards, and in the long run I thought that this was bad EV and therefore decided to fold.

What would you have done?
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Old Apr 24, 2007, 6:06pm   #2
Boilermaker
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You are giving an unknown player way too much credit if you limit his range to AA and KK only, especially at 25 NL.

I would either push now or call and re-evaluate the flop. I'm never folding this readless. I think a push is +ev. Obviously AA and KK call, but that's all you are behind - if villian will call with JJ, TT as well you win, and many players will also call with any pair, AQ, AJ. I think it is reasonable to expect a random 25 NL player to have a large enough calling range to make a push profitable.

I can't decide, however, if you calling and evaluating the flop is better, especially since you have position and can expect hands you beat to bet.
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Old Apr 24, 2007, 6:45pm   #3
Caerbannog
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Boilermaker View Post
You are giving an unknown player way too much credit if you limit his range to AA and KK only, especially at 25 NL.

I would either push now or call and re-evaluate the flop. I'm never folding this readless. I think a push is +ev. Obviously AA and KK call, but that's all you are behind - if villian will call with JJ, TT as well you win, and many players will also call with any pair, AQ, AJ. I think it is reasonable to expect a random 25 NL player to have a large enough calling range to make a push profitable.

I can't decide, however, if you calling and evaluating the flop is better, especially since you have position and can expect hands you beat to bet.
Firstly like I said I am not making this play according to the player, I am reading the situation in the long run. And if somebody reraises 3x the inital raise, after early postion has limped, out of position, there is no way that in the longrun someone is going to have JJ or TT. Lets say that the flop comes 559... and he bets the pot, which he has to do by reraising me out of position preflop. By calling the preflop raise I must be willing to commit to this hand if a flop like this came. I reraise allin, he calls and shows KK or AA is the likely outcome. Even if he is holding JJ or TT which is unlikely, he has to bet out regardless if an Ace or king comes, then what.

You say that I am giving him to much credit because he is at 25NL. However I believe that the majority of 25NL players would smooth call preflop with JJ or TT. And you say you would push allin? Why would I risk $25 preflop with QQ? When I have position? You say you are never folding regardless? If you cant fold a pair of queens when you think you are crushed then I think you are doing something wrong.

Last edited by Caerbannog; Apr 24, 2007 at 6:48pm.
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Old Apr 24, 2007, 8:03pm   #4
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If a unknown average 25NL player's 3-bet range is really KK+ then you are right to fold. I simply don't believe this is the case. And I don't think you should assume the player is aware of his position or other's actions - this also gives too much credit to the average player at this level.

I didn't say I would not fold "regardless", I said I would not fold "readless". There are plenty of players that I would fold this too once I had seen them play. I can fold QQ when I think I'm crushed - on average I don't this is one of those times.

The reason I might call instead of push is exactly so that I could get all-in on a flop just like 559. This would be a good flop since hands I beat that may not have called an all-in raise preflop may now bet and nothing changed with hands that I was already losing to anyway. I can't decide if this offsets the times that I have to fold when villain c-bets a A or K flop with a hand I would have beat. Plus there are the times I save money by being able to get away from a A, K flop when the villian did have AA or KK. I think it's probably close between push and call.
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Old Apr 25, 2007, 12:45pm   #5
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I don't mind folding here. You don't have the implied odds to play for set value and you have no reads on the villain. Personally, I prefer to play on the tighter side when I have no reads on the opponent. At this point we have invested $1.25 in our Queens and the villain is telling us he wants to play for stacks. He may not want to, but 3betting oop is a fairly strong play so I am happy to give him credit for a hand until I know he is capable of getting out of line with a weaker hand. Without reads, I think pushing here is overplaying our hand.

I don't really agree with the view that the average $25NL player has a wider range for 3betting. I've played $25NL for a while now and people rarely 3bet with anything less than AA or KK. Most of the time they smooth call with AK, QQ, JJ etc. Full-ring low limit players tend to be loose-passive and I find 3betting is rare at these limits.
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