THE FORUMS


German ForumsGeneral DiscussionStrategyFrench Forum
Old May 23, 2007, 12:15am   #21
Boilermaker
Get off my lawn
 
Boilermaker's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: damning whippersnappers
Posts: 4,599
Reputation: 2426
Boilermaker has a reputation beyond reputeBoilermaker has a reputation beyond reputeBoilermaker has a reputation beyond reputeBoilermaker has a reputation beyond reputeBoilermaker has a reputation beyond reputeBoilermaker has a reputation beyond reputeBoilermaker has a reputation beyond reputeBoilermaker has a reputation beyond reputeBoilermaker has a reputation beyond reputeBoilermaker has a reputation beyond reputeBoilermaker has a reputation beyond repute
Default

It really feels to me like you are overanalyzing this hand - unless there is a VERY VERY specific history with these players (ala Ishbu's example) that would lead you to believe with very high confidence that your opponents have put you on KK+. Barring that (which you didn't mention in the original post), this is a situation that needs your chips to be in the middle.
Boilermaker est déconnecté   Reply With Quote

Sponsored Links
Don't like this ad? Register to make it go away!

Old May 23, 2007, 4:31pm   #22
TWLLM
100
 
TWLLM's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 5,271
Reputation: 957
TWLLM is a splendid one to beholdTWLLM is a splendid one to beholdTWLLM is a splendid one to beholdTWLLM is a splendid one to beholdTWLLM is a splendid one to beholdTWLLM is a splendid one to beholdTWLLM is a splendid one to beholdTWLLM is a splendid one to behold
Default

Here's how I saw the hand at the time.

I have a reasonably high opening range, but certainly a more snug 3-betting range (even from the button). I'm not a nit, but I'm not LAGtarded either. I haven't played much with the AI player unfortunately, but thanks to eddie I made the right play (based on how the cards actually lay this time, anyway).

Eddie's overcall, to me, looked like QQ/JJ. I don't know about the rest of you, but when I see someone cold calling a 3-bet pf, this looks like QQ/JJ most often, with the second most likely holding being AK. I also saw Eddie play QQ in a 3-bet pot before as well, and while the situation was different, the common thread seemed to be that he liked to see the flop with QQ so that he can dodge the A/K. I thought (before the AI) that Eddie's call looked like QQ/JJ, especially given that I hold two kings, reducing the chance even further that he had AK.

So I put Eddie on QQ/JJ as his most likely holdings (I wasn't right this time, obviously, but oh well).

So what does this mean when I see the original opener push? Well, for one, in my experience the most overplayed hands are things like QQ, and AK is obvious overplayed sometimes, but IMO not as often as QQ. Most people like to see the flop with AK to a 3-bet, and only the very aggressive and those reacting to the aggression of their opponents will push with it. This is not always true, but often is.

So when I see the all-in bet from the original raiser, it's hard for me to put him on an overplayed hand I can beat. Certainly, some of the time he will have AK or QQ, but how often? For one, I have two of the kings, meaning that based purely on available cards, the likelihood of this holding is reduced. And I don't often see JJ pushing here into a 3-bettor and caller, so I have to put him on QQ or AK a significant amount of the time, and enough to balance out the times he has AA.

And if I put Eddie on a range that seems to be face pockets (QQ/JJ) or, alternatively, AK, now how do I have to re-evaluate the pusher's range? Granted, I could literally be up against QQ and JJ, or QQ and AK, or some exact perfect situation where I'm a strong plurality in a monster pot. BUT, to me what seemed far more likely is that I was up against QQ/JJ in Eddie, and AA from the original raiser.

As you know, I was only half right. Eddie was overplaying 88, and I mean he was REALLY overplaying it. He called the shove and lost to aces full when the original raiser tabled AA. I guess I need to be thankful that Eddie overplayed his 88, because if he hadn't, I'm not sure I would have been able to make the laydown. I have a very good record of getting away from AA vs KK in cash games, but I don't know if I would have been able to fold to the push without Eddie being in the pot to reduce the likelihood that the original raiser was overplaying QQ/JJ.

In fairness, after I added the 'hint' about Eddie's hand, so that we wouldn't have to worry about him having AA, I realized this screwed up much of the reason I folded. However, I know for a fact that practically no one in the forum will ever say it's correct to lay down KK preflop in a cash game, so I decided not to retract the statement simply because I couldn't decide which approach would be more damaging - would more people be worried about the original raiser having AA or the cold caller?

So I think maybe this is a laydown I could make at the time, and correctly, but in retrospect maybe there wasn't enough information for others to make it. And that's sad, but at the same time, if I had posted "Eddie has QQ", would any of you have changed your answer? There's an interesting question.

Alright, so flame away about how (1) folding KK is wrong no matter what, and (2) about how I screwed up the thread.
__________________
If I were Vietnamese my name would be Kno Nguyen.

Quote:
Originally Posted by DoubleU
Oh, and obviously, TWLLM, we'd all rather you just ruled with an iron fist of nittiness and made all decisions without consultation, but that goes without saying, right?
TWLLM est déconnecté   Reply With Quote
Old May 23, 2007, 5:36pm   #23
Gus
Professional
 
Gus's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 2,753
Reputation: 346
Gus is a jewel in the roughGus is a jewel in the roughGus is a jewel in the roughGus is a jewel in the rough
Default

baaaad fold, baaaad thread !
Gus est déconnecté   Reply With Quote
Old May 23, 2007, 5:46pm   #24
TWLLM
100
 
TWLLM's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 5,271
Reputation: 957
TWLLM is a splendid one to beholdTWLLM is a splendid one to beholdTWLLM is a splendid one to beholdTWLLM is a splendid one to beholdTWLLM is a splendid one to beholdTWLLM is a splendid one to beholdTWLLM is a splendid one to beholdTWLLM is a splendid one to behold
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Gus View Post
baaaad fold, baaaad thread !
I agree I messed up the thread, but the fold isn't bad IMO with the info I had.
__________________
If I were Vietnamese my name would be Kno Nguyen.

Quote:
Originally Posted by DoubleU
Oh, and obviously, TWLLM, we'd all rather you just ruled with an iron fist of nittiness and made all decisions without consultation, but that goes without saying, right?
TWLLM est déconnecté   Reply With Quote
Old May 23, 2007, 6:41pm   #25
skeptix82
Making Monies
 
skeptix82's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2004
Location: Communist Russia
Posts: 5,658
Reputation: 1007
skeptix82 has much to be proud ofskeptix82 has much to be proud ofskeptix82 has much to be proud ofskeptix82 has much to be proud ofskeptix82 has much to be proud ofskeptix82 has much to be proud ofskeptix82 has much to be proud ofskeptix82 has much to be proud of
Send a message via AIM to skeptix82
Default

It's not that it's not right to fold KK ever, I've actually done it in a tournament (3 raises in front with the 3rd raiser being uber tight). I'm just a little confused about your thinking. Unless you had some super-god read on him, I don't see how his play here doesn't scream of QQ. I'm sure you put him on a range of more than JUST AA. Had to be QQ/AA (even KK). Eddie in the pot does make QQ slightly less likely, but surely doesn't eliminate it. With the money already in the pot, how can you fold with the possibility of being against QQ? I hate to say it, but it seems like this is a situation where you made the wrong decision but came out looking good for it. I think you lose money in the long run folding here.

But feel free to explain to me how you can put him on AA and nothing but (as opposed to just, very likely AA).
__________________
Quote:
Skeptix is correct. - MRVEGAS
skeptix82 est déconnecté   Reply With Quote
Old May 23, 2007, 7:01pm   #26
Ishbu3116
Pope of Online Poker
 
Ishbu3116's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 3,147
Reputation: 27
Ishbu3116 is on a distinguished road
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by TWLLM View Post
I agree I messed up the thread, but the fold isn't bad IMO with the info I had.
I have to agree with Gus. Just because you have 2 kings in your hand does not make it impossible to AK. Also what if you have AK? Are you going to push thinking "Well I have great fold equity here because I am at worst a coinflip because since I have an Ace or King there is no way that anybody has two of them."

As it relates to being very good at getting away from KK against AA. I think you are wrong more of these times than you are right. Especially at $400NL and $600 NL which cannot be that much different than $1000NL or $2000NL. I am felting here everytime. You know how many times I get push in against AK, QQ, or JJ when I have KK? It happens so much (A lot of it has to do with my image BTW) that I just throw it all in there and hope for the best. That makes more money than just guessing when to fold.
__________________
Ishbu's Blog is finally up...http://theishbu.blogspot.com Last Updated (05/12/0
Read about my Play Money Prop Bet http://www.pokertips.org/forums/showthread.php?t=59087
Ishbu3116 est déconnecté   Reply With Quote
Old May 23, 2007, 7:38pm   #27
TWLLM
100
 
TWLLM's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 5,271
Reputation: 957
TWLLM is a splendid one to beholdTWLLM is a splendid one to beholdTWLLM is a splendid one to beholdTWLLM is a splendid one to beholdTWLLM is a splendid one to beholdTWLLM is a splendid one to beholdTWLLM is a splendid one to beholdTWLLM is a splendid one to behold
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by skeptix82 View Post
It's not that it's not right to fold KK ever, I've actually done it in a tournament (3 raises in front with the 3rd raiser being uber tight). I'm just a little confused about your thinking. Unless you had some super-god read on him, I don't see how his play here doesn't scream of QQ. I'm sure you put him on a range of more than JUST AA. Had to be QQ/AA (even KK). Eddie in the pot does make QQ slightly less likely, but surely doesn't eliminate it. With the money already in the pot, how can you fold with the possibility of being against QQ? I hate to say it, but it seems like this is a situation where you made the wrong decision but came out looking good for it. I think you lose money in the long run folding here.

But feel free to explain to me how you can put him on AA and nothing but (as opposed to just, very likely AA).
You're right I didn't put him on JUST AA. But what I did do, was look at the relative likelihood of each hand, and assess that AA was by far his most likely holding. It's extremely rare that he has KK here, because I have it. I will more or less discount this, although I know I have from time to time seen KK vs KK or AA vs AA. And KK is just about the only hand, aside from AA, that I can see most unknown players shoving in with in this spot with effective stacks around a full buy-in. To give it a number, 4 out of 5 times that an unknown player who doesn't seem exceptionally aggressive or passive shoves in for a full buyin in this spot he has either AA or KK.

Other possibilities: AK - yes, it's possible, but in my experience most people will not shove AK here (see below). I think the same is true with QQ - I rarely see a player who isn't extremely LAG who will shove a full stack in against a 3-bet and a cold caller with QQ, even though they might do this more often with QQ than with AK. Had Eddie folded, this would be very different.

I didn't say this explicitly, because it was implicit, but you have to give more credit to the shove when it's made into a cold caller above the 3-bettor. A normal opponent doesn't become more likely to shove with QQ or AK against 2 people than against one - if anything, almost certainly, they become more likely to play this hand passively, and see if they can either flop a set or a safe board (no A/K w/QQ), or if they have AK, whether they can spike TPTK.

I am absolutely certain that I am right to say that, ceteris paribus, against an unknown player a cold caller on the 3-bet tightens up the original raiser's shove range. I would be astounded if anyone disagreed with this for midstakes. Remember, this is an unknown player, not a known LAG multitabler or something. If anything, I would need this 'god read' to assume he's very likely to do this with AK/QQ than with AA/KK.

To look at this particular hand from a theoretical standpoint, if I didn't know my own hole cards, but the action went down the same, I would assume the relative likelihoods for the original raiser's hand to be AA=KK (maybe slightly more to AA b/c there are a portion of unknown players who soft play KK pf to see the flop, avoid the ace, then shove) >QQ=AK (once again, maybe more one way or the other, perhaps because of Eddie's involvement it balances out that AK and QQ are equally likely, but they're both less likely than AA/KK) >XX/XY.

In other words, not knowing my own cards, his most likely holdings are AA and KK. Not necessarily that he has to have either one of them individually more than 50% of the time (so I'm not saying that, knowing his most likely range is AA/KK, that AA is somehow more than 50% of the time). However, after I know I have KK, I have to realize that it is highly unlikely, and practically discountable, that he has KK. Hence, the whole assignment (or at least 95% of it, if I don't discount entirely) falls to AA.

So between the fact that (1) he's shoving into 2 players, including a cold caller, (2), I have KK, and (3) Eddie's hand looks, to most reasonable players, as something like QQ or JJ, that the most likely holding for the original raiser is AA after he shoves.

Now, how likely does it have to be? I admit I didn't even try to do the full math in the time I had to decide on my hand. However, the pot is laying some odds (about 1.3 to 1), but not much. If I assume that, on average, when I'm ahead, I'm ahead 75/25 (this is a mix between hands like QQ/JJ where I'm 80/20, and hands like AK and AQ where I'm closer to 70/30), and that I'm behind when he has aces by around 80/20, I have to be against aces around 60 something% of the time to fold.

(let's assume if I call the all-in or push, eddie folds all but AA - this was my assumption at the time, not sure what he actually would have done knowing how he overplayed 88 ).

If ahead I win 75% of the time = +$499.50
If behind I lose 80% of the time = -$405.60

This means that, roughly, he has to have AA around 61.6%+ of the time for me to fold correctly. Considering that you can never fold KK unless your opponent is at least ~50.1% to have AA (although it it was 50.1%, you'd need either a totally zeroed pot, or REALLY big stacks), this isn't that hard a fold with KK. Had the pot been laying much more, it would have been far harder to fold and I wouldn't. For reference sake, if you say call, you're essentially saying he has AA less than 62% of the time.

As it stood, I would have assessed that at least 3 out of 4 times or so he's got AA. Sounds absurd given that AA is only one hand, but he's shoving into a 3-bettor and a caller, and I rarely find that a heads up 4-bet is anything but KK/AA, and add to that (1) I have KK (meaning he pretty much never does), and (2) there is a cold caller, the likelihood of the open-raiser pushing QQ/AK just shrinks. We have to think not only about the likelihood of each hand in the deck, but about the likelihood in relation to the circumstances of the hand - that is why I find a fold here, but go bust with KK many other spots. I didnt do the full math, but knowing I think he's 75% to have AA, and looking at the size of the call, I figured out it was a fold. And I like it (in retrospect, at least - maybe not at the table b/c of emotions) even if he turns over QQ this time.

BTW Skeptix, I would never credit myself with a good fold just because this time it was a good one. If you see my recent thread about the Sunday Crapshoot you'll see I pointed out that I made a 'wrong' fold that was right. I know the difference between a reasonable play, and one that is right because of results-oriented thinking.

(if any of my math is a little off it's because I rounded, or maybe I misread the hand history slightly, but I'm sure that the threshold for folding is around the low 60% for him having AA. I also skipped some steps so if it doesn't make sense to you, it's not you, it's just that I did it quickly).
__________________
If I were Vietnamese my name would be Kno Nguyen.

Quote:
Originally Posted by DoubleU
Oh, and obviously, TWLLM, we'd all rather you just ruled with an iron fist of nittiness and made all decisions without consultation, but that goes without saying, right?
TWLLM est déconnecté   Reply With Quote
Old May 23, 2007, 7:45pm   #28
TWLLM
100
 
TWLLM's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 5,271
Reputation: 957
TWLLM is a splendid one to beholdTWLLM is a splendid one to beholdTWLLM is a splendid one to beholdTWLLM is a splendid one to beholdTWLLM is a splendid one to beholdTWLLM is a splendid one to beholdTWLLM is a splendid one to beholdTWLLM is a splendid one to behold
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ishbu3116 View Post
I have to agree with Gus. Just because you have 2 kings in your hand does not make it impossible to AK. Also what if you have AK? Are you going to push thinking "Well I have great fold equity here because I am at worst a coinflip because since I have an Ace or King there is no way that anybody has two of them."

As it relates to being very good at getting away from KK against AA. I think you are wrong more of these times than you are right. Especially at $400NL and $600 NL which cannot be that much different than $1000NL or $2000NL. I am felting here everytime. You know how many times I get push in against AK, QQ, or JJ when I have KK? It happens so much (A lot of it has to do with my image BTW) that I just throw it all in there and hope for the best. That makes more money than just guessing when to fold.
About the 'image', I usually have a reasonably tight image, although I sometimes turn LAG(tard?), but I think that my 3-betting range is quite tight relatively speaking, compared to my open-raising range. But I'm not sure that the villain could have known this because I don't think we've played that much.

As for the difference between 400/600nl and 2k nl, I think it comes down to your assessment of what the 'unknown' player is, on average. For me, I find that the average unknown player is too willing to call, and overplays by calling too much as opposed by betting/raising too much (an unknown is someone for whom you have no history/notes/reads, AND who is not a multitabler, which appeared to be the case here).

This is part of why I say that 4 out of 5 times I see a 4-bet (4-bet shove) for a full buyin, it's aces or kings.

And you're right, he could still have AK, but if the base probability for AK in this spot is 10% of the time, AND THEN we consider that I have two kings, it drops even more.
__________________
If I were Vietnamese my name would be Kno Nguyen.

Quote:
Originally Posted by DoubleU
Oh, and obviously, TWLLM, we'd all rather you just ruled with an iron fist of nittiness and made all decisions without consultation, but that goes without saying, right?
TWLLM est déconnecté   Reply With Quote
Old May 23, 2007, 7:58pm   #29
Frogboy4L
spewing station
 
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: Fading the flush draw
Posts: 1,497
Reputation: 0
Frogboy4L
Send a message via AIM to Frogboy4L
Default

I was under the impression that shoving AK was totally standard in this situation. Is that just inaccurate?
__________________
Blogging again, updated frequently. Annotations of spew:

(the link works now)

frogboy4Lpoker.blogspot.com
Frogboy4L est déconnecté   Reply With Quote
Old May 23, 2007, 8:17pm   #30
TWLLM
100
 
TWLLM's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 5,271
Reputation: 957
TWLLM is a splendid one to beholdTWLLM is a splendid one to beholdTWLLM is a splendid one to beholdTWLLM is a splendid one to beholdTWLLM is a splendid one to beholdTWLLM is a splendid one to beholdTWLLM is a splendid one to beholdTWLLM is a splendid one to behold
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Frogboy4L View Post
I was under the impression that shoving AK was totally standard in this situation. Is that just inaccurate?
I don't see people shoving AK here that much. Other posters seem to imply that this is automatic AK spot. It's a good question, and not one for which he have a certain answer. I rarely see people overplay AK this hard in such a spot, but maybe it's something specific to my games/opponents.
__________________
If I were Vietnamese my name would be Kno Nguyen.

Quote:
Originally Posted by DoubleU
Oh, and obviously, TWLLM, we'd all rather you just ruled with an iron fist of nittiness and made all decisions without consultation, but that goes without saying, right?
TWLLM est déconnecté   Reply With Quote
Reply

Bookmarks

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Forum Jump



All times are GMT. The time now is 7:09pm. vBulletin 3.7.4 Copyright ©2000 - 2017, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.