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Old May 29, 2007, 3:14pm   #1
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Default Table Talk - What should villain do?

I lost this hand history and the exact conversation leading up to it, but I can recount it pretty well. It is an interesting situation because of the table talk and because I make a very strange bet.

I am doing well at a 6-Max $25 NL table. I have $50. The player in front of me is someone I recognize from playing $50NL with. I start a conversation.

ME - "Didn't you use to play $50NL."
HIM - "Yeah, but I got drunk one night and blew my roll playing 1KNL"
ME - "LOL, I did almost exactly the same thing... but I wasn't drunk. I just lost my head."
HIM - "Well at least I have an excuse."

We chat for a while, about a bad player who just left the table. About changing limits. About all kinds of stuff. We are rather friendly. I appear to be having fun and not really following the play that closely. We are both >200BB's deep.

Then this hand comes.

$25NL. I am in SB with $50. Villain is on the button with about $65.

One limper (16 bucks) and the Villain who raises to $1.10.

I say, "These cards are crap. But I am going to call and take your whole stack."

The BB folds. The limper calls and Villain calls.

The flop is 2h4hKh. I push all in. Limper folds.

Villain says, "Oh god!" and agonizes while his timer ticks down.

Villain is holding 7h8h. What should he do?
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Old May 29, 2007, 4:41pm   #2
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The more I think about this, the tougher it gets. Since the pot odds are so terrible, the hero needs to have the flush less than 50% of the time for this to be profitable. Moreover, the talk beforehand seems to indicate that the hero's a solid player.

However, he knows that we know that he's probably a solid player, so a move is not entirely out of the question. Moreover, he could be trying to take the pot down now with a solid, but non-flush, hand. Given the table talk, there's too high a chance that he has 22, 44, 24, K4 or K2 here. You beat almost anything that isn't AhXh. I call.
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Old May 29, 2007, 5:13pm   #3
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Insta valuecall
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Old May 29, 2007, 5:18pm   #4
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Is this a trick question?

If you play a hand like 7h8h and flop a flush then you've got what you want. The fact that the hero was kind enough to put all his chips in the pot is nice of him.

You're ahead of every single one of his likely holdings, (AA, the set, TPTK+flush draw) The only one you're losing to is the better flush and why would he want to scare you away by going all in with the nuts?

I'm calling this with a smile on my face.
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Old May 29, 2007, 5:38pm   #5
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This spot isn't foldable except in very rare cases against opponents where you have a strong tell that they play the nuts or near nuts only. I'm guessing this is the case here.

If you had some garbage like 93/T4hh or something, then you got a really lucky flop and your opponent is still right to call you.

You could have AhXx, 35hh, 24, k4, k2, 22, etc. These are all rather 'weak' hands that could bust him with (your preflop comments).
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Old May 29, 2007, 5:39pm   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Got 6 Aces View Post
Is this a trick question?
My initial guess would have been results-oriented (trick) question, assuming his opponent called.
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Oh, and obviously, TWLLM, we'd all rather you just ruled with an iron fist of nittiness and made all decisions without consultation, but that goes without saying, right?
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Old May 29, 2007, 5:49pm   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Got 6 Aces View Post
Is this a trick question?
No, this is not a trick question. Just a question about what to do when someone acts so frickin' ridiculously and you are strong but don't have the nuts - especially when they forcast their ridiculous play beforehand with table talk.

Obviously, Hero's bet is stupid no matter what he holds. Hero made a very dumb bet. Hero (me) was being an idiot.

But, is it enough reason to call?

The reason I ask is because hero and villain talked afterwards about whether villain should have called or not. Hero and Villain disagreed with each other, actually supporting each others actions rather than their own. I wanted other opinions.
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Old May 29, 2007, 6:13pm   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TWLLM View Post
My initial guess would have been results-oriented (trick) question, assuming his opponent called.
Seriously, Hero is not proud of himself, hero was having a good time and acted ... well... goofy. So it was not results-oriented from Hero's standpoint.

Yes, villain called. Hero had the flush. Qh6h.

Villain said, "Sick"

Hero said, "Sorry"

Then a conversation started about whether villain should have called. Villain said that he shouldn't have called. Hero said that there was no way of him getting away from it. Hero maintained that villain made the right call.

Villain said, "Too much chance for a set, or even top two pair there."

Hero agreed.

Villain said, "Yeah, but it's 200 BB's. This is too deep a stack."

Hero disagreed. "There is no way of getting away from that - especially with the talk before the hand. You had to call."

Villain, "But it's 200 BB's. I can't call that."

Hero said, "But with the hand you were holding, that is exactly the flop you wanted. It is why you are playing those cards.

Hero continued, "There is no way of getting away from it. I acted out of line and you had the perfect hand for my bad play. You can't fold that."

Villain, "I'm not really into the forum thing, but I have to post this hand. It was just sick."

Hero, "Where are you posting it?"

Villain, "Blah blah blah" <- hero doesn't remember the site. Hero lost the hand history.

Hero, "Alright, I'll post too and see what people think."


To tell you the truth, I think I am leaning the other way now. Villain should have folded.
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Old May 29, 2007, 6:41pm   #9
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I muck for 200BB in a ~15bb pot on the flop.
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Old May 29, 2007, 7:57pm   #10
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My thinking is clearing on this.

I disagree with my original assessment that I shared in chat with Villain. I think he should have folded.

I had either flopped the better flush or I had a big hand like a set, two pair, or AhXx (probably with a pair).

Someone said I needed to have the flush less than half the time. But, I think I needed to have the flush a lot less than half the time because, in those cases where I don't already have the winning flush, I am going to draw out on him pretty often. A set is not that big a dog (35% to win). AhXx is not a monsterous dog (28%-32% depending on if I have a pair). Even two pair is not close to dead (18%). So, assuming I win 30% of the hands where I don't have the flush, then he needs to put me on something other than the flush like 60% of the time for it to be worth a call. That's a tough call there. I say fold.

Actually, I did the math, it is like 56% of the time that I need to have something other than the winning flush to call assuming he wins 70% of those with the money that is already in the pot. Still a tough call.

Regards

Last edited by seedload; May 29, 2007 at 8:04pm.
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