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Old May 30, 2007, 4:41am   #21
spalding25
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Originally Posted by Gus View Post
insta call with fist pump.
QFT.
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Old May 30, 2007, 1:05pm   #22
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Originally Posted by Gus View Post
insta call with fist pump.
I might throw two fist pumps in there instead but thats a small detail.
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Old May 30, 2007, 3:16pm   #23
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TWLLM,

I think you are missing something here. My original post contained no results nor did it contain my position on the hand. You speculated. After your speculation, I posted what my original opinion was, that this was a definitive call. You are missing this. My original position was counter to the results and clearly explained as such. I also explained - clearly I believe - that the reason I was posting this was because the other player, who I think is pretty decent, was saying that it wasn't a definitive call. We conversed on it for a while. So, if it seemed worthy of conversation between us, then it seemed worthy of posting even if you don't believe it to be so.

Your position basically boils down to, this is so obvious a call that the only explanation for it being posted is it being results-oriented. I disagree. I like to question the obvious because it helps me think my way through things. It would have been obvious to TJ Cloutier that the modern aggressive tournament game could not possibly be successful when he wrote his super tight Tournament Strategy book. But, he would have been wrong.

Not every responder to this thread was convinced it was a simple call, so at the very least there was the posibility of discussion before it was nipped in the bud.

Finally, there might be more to this post than originally meets the eye, like, for example, are there other hands that he should call with - maybe AhK, maybe top set, maybe any set? Or, how about this, why did I push in the first place. Was there any possible explanation? Did it make sence if something was added to the story - possibly about the limper.

I am not offended. I am just trying to make posts that are interesting to people or myself. When you come and throw the "results-oriented" stamp on them, you shut them down intentionally or not.

I have to ask. If you are really that disinterested in the post - then why say anything at all?

Discussions lead somewhere or the fizzle away. Sometimes good things come from rocky starts. Sometimes good ideas come out of seemingly terrible ideas. It is the foundation of brainstorming. This is how a forum is useful. People talking through things. But, normally when a person uses pseudo intellectual terminology to quickly question the integrity of someone elses thoughts a disussion loses all possibility of productiveness.

BTW - this sequence makes me laugh out loud.

" I'm glad you got the second point "
" sorry for any offense "
" Sorry for any offense this may have caused "

... commence argument for why I should get your first point.

" your suggested plan of action was SO very out of line with the math/logic "
" I also thought you posted the hand because of the results as opposed to because you thought there was real strategy in it "
" I thought, 'blinded' your otherwise logical self into saying the better move was to fold"

I would venture to say that you, sir, are probably not really sorry at all.

Regards
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Old May 30, 2007, 4:23pm   #24
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Damn, this was a pain to do in poker stove. Anyway....

Here are some real numbers,

I push with a flush, two pair, a set, or AhX, then it is a call. Villain is ahead by a little bit.

---
88,110 games 0.016 secs 5,506,875 games/sec
Board: 2h 4h Kh
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 46.126% 46.13% 00.00% 40642 0.00 { 44, 22, AhKh, AhQh, AhJh, AhTh, Ah9h, Ah8h, Ah7h, Ah6h, Ah5h, Ah4h, Ah3h, Ah2h, KhQh, KhJh, KhTh, Kh9h, Kh8h, Kh7h, Kh6h, Kh5h, Kh4h, Kh3h, Kh2h, QhJh, QhTh, Qh9h, Qh8h, Qh7h, Qh6h, Qh5h, Qh4h, Qh3h, Qh2h, JhTh, Jh9h, Jh8h, Jh7h, Jh6h, Jh5h, Jh4h, Jh3h, Jh2h, Th9h, Th8h, Th7h, Th6h, Th5h, Th4h, Th3h, Th2h, 9h8h, 9h7h, 9h6h, 9h5h, 9h4h, 9h3h, 9h2h, 8h7h, 8h6h, 8h5h, 8d4d, 8h4h, 8h3h, 8h2h, 7h6h, 7h5h, 7h4h, 7h3h, 7h2h, 6h5h, 6h4h, 6h3h, 6h2h, 5h4h, 5h3h, 5h2h, 4h3h, 4h2h, 3h2h, AhKc, AhKd, AhKs, AhQc, AhQd, AhQs, AhJc, AhJd, AhJs, AhTc, AhTd, AhTs, Ah9c, Ah9d, Ah9s, Ah8c, Ah8d, Ah8s, Ah7c, Ah7d, Ah7s, Ah6c, Ah6d, Ah6s, Ah5c, Ah5d, Ah5s, Ah4c, Ah4d, Ah4s, Ah3c, Ah3d, Ah3s, Ah2c, Ah2d, Ah2s, K4o, K2o, 42o }
Hand 1: 53.874% 53.87% 00.00% 47468 0.00 { 8h7h }

If you take two pair out and I only push with a flush, a set or AhX, then it a marginal call because of the tiny bit of money in the pot even though villain is behind.

---
70,290 games 0.005 secs 14,058,000 games/sec
Board: 2h 4h Kh
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 53.390% 53.39% 00.00% 37528 0.00 { 44, 22, AhKh, AhQh, AhJh, AhTh, Ah9h, Ah8h, Ah7h, Ah6h, Ah5h, Ah4h, Ah3h, Ah2h, KhQh, KhJh, KhTh, Kh9h, Kh8h, Kh7h, Kh6h, Kh5h, Kh4h, Kh3h, Kh2h, QhJh, QhTh, Qh9h, Qh8h, Qh7h, Qh6h, Qh5h, Qh4h, Qh3h, Qh2h, JhTh, Jh9h, Jh8h, Jh7h, Jh6h, Jh5h, Jh4h, Jh3h, Jh2h, Th9h, Th8h, Th7h, Th6h, Th5h, Th4h, Th3h, Th2h, 9h8h, 9h7h, 9h6h, 9h5h, 9h4h, 9h3h, 9h2h, 8h7h, 8h6h, 8h5h, 8d4d, 8h4h, 8h3h, 8h2h, 7h6h, 7h5h, 7h4h, 7h3h, 7h2h, 6h5h, 6h4h, 6h3h, 6h2h, 5h4h, 5h3h, 5h2h, 4h3h, 4h2h, 3h2h, AhKc, AhKd, AhKs, AhQc, AhQd, AhQs, AhJc, AhJd, AhJs, AhTc, AhTd, AhTs, Ah9c, Ah9d, Ah9s, Ah8c, Ah8d, Ah8s, Ah7c, Ah7d, Ah7s, Ah6c, Ah6d, Ah6s, Ah5c, Ah5d, Ah5s, Ah4c, Ah4d, Ah4s, Ah3c, Ah3d, Ah3s, Ah2c, Ah2d, Ah2s }
Hand 1: 46.610% 46.61% 00.00% 32762 0.00 { 8h7h }

If you take out AhX, so that I could only have a set or a flush, then it is a fold.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt
52,470 games 0.005 secs 10,494,000 games/sec
Board: 2h 4h Kh
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 57.355% 57.35% 00.00% 30094 0.00 { 44, 22, AhKh, AhQh, AhJh, AhTh, Ah9h, Ah8h, Ah7h, Ah6h, Ah5h, Ah4h, Ah3h, Ah2h, KhQh, KhJh, KhTh, Kh9h, Kh8h, Kh7h, Kh6h, Kh5h, Kh4h, Kh3h, Kh2h, QhJh, QhTh, Qh9h, Qh8h, Qh7h, Qh6h, Qh5h, Qh4h, Qh3h, Qh2h, JhTh, Jh9h, Jh8h, Jh7h, Jh6h, Jh5h, Jh4h, Jh3h, Jh2h, Th9h, Th8h, Th7h, Th6h, Th5h, Th4h, Th3h, Th2h, 9h8h, 9h7h, 9h6h, 9h5h, 9h4h, 9h3h, 9h2h, 8h7h, 8h6h, 8h5h, 8d4d, 8h4h, 8h3h, 8h2h, 7h6h, 7h5h, 7h4h, 7h3h, 7h2h, 6h5h, 6h4h, 6h3h, 6h2h, 5h4h, 5h3h, 5h2h, 4h3h, 4h2h, 3h2h, K4o, K2o, 42o }
Hand 1: 42.645% 42.65% 00.00% 22376 0.00 { 8h7h }

Never is this a definite call, IMHO

No wonder I was on the fence on this. It is not all that clear cut that he should have called.

BTW, the full range of made flushes were like 85% over the 8h7h. That was my real range.

I meant to run set, two pair, or flush but the damn file didn't save right in Poker Stove. I would guess that it was somewhere between the middle and the last. This was the range that villain said he put me on. If that is the case, then he should have folded.

I am still back and forth a little on this. I still say call but the numbers have me confused.

EDIT -

TWLLM made the point that this crazy play is less likely with a made flush, so flushes can be weighted down making it a call. But is this the case? Or, is there evidence that my opponent can use to reason out that I would only do this if I were very strong? Or is the there no real additional indicator to weight the potential hands making it an even distribution and simply something for poker stove to figure out?

Regards

Last edited by seedload; May 30, 2007 at 4:47pm.
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Old May 30, 2007, 4:49pm   #25
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Wow there is too much writing in this thread. A respectable player just straight pushes a triple heart board. What do you beat. He is a good player, not someone who just pushes a set or two pair on a coordinated board, he actually plays poker. I fold the 7h8h and think nothing of it. If he wants to keep pushing like that I will look for a better spot. And this is not a results oriented post.
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Old May 30, 2007, 5:54pm   #26
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You're right I speculated it was results oriented seedload; but, unless the original poster is the one who identifies his own logic as results-oriented, any claim that a poster is letting the results warp his thinking is going to be speculation. My apologies if the speculation is indeed faulty.


You did the pokerstove analysis, great, but are you telling me you open-shove the nut flush here as often as, say, a lower flush or a set or AhXx? This changes how you have to view your distribution - pokerstove doesn't do the whole job. So with every possible hand in your distribution that you might open-push with, you have to weigh it based on how often you take that line (open-pushing) with that hand, not just how statistically likely that hand is ceteris paribus.

I thought you posted earlier that you would very rarely open-push a strong flush here. In relation to other handsyou'd pull the same move with, how often do you do it? If you open push with 5 hands here, ever, how often do you do it with each? The second nuts seems to be an absurd hand to open-push, and I would have thought (and I thought you confirmed) that of the hands you might ever open-push here, it is more rare than average. In other words, your distribution should be weighted against it, relatively speaking, in light of your action.

If after you do that, you still have reason/numbers to say it's a fold, and you haven't skewed your numbers based on how your perception of the spot changes after seeing the cards (this is the 'results oriented' view I speculated about), then fine, you're not being results-oriented and I apologize.
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Oh, and obviously, TWLLM, we'd all rather you just ruled with an iron fist of nittiness and made all decisions without consultation, but that goes without saying, right?
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Old May 30, 2007, 5:56pm   #27
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A respectable player just straight pushes a triple heart board. What do you beat. He is a good player, not someone who just pushes a set or two pair on a coordinated board, he actually plays poker. I fold the 7h8h and think nothing of it.


Are you saying you fold this against an otherwise decent player in your regular game ($2knl), in a game of the stakes where this took place (where you have recent experience because of your challenge), or both?
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Originally Posted by DoubleU
Oh, and obviously, TWLLM, we'd all rather you just ruled with an iron fist of nittiness and made all decisions without consultation, but that goes without saying, right?
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Old May 30, 2007, 6:35pm   #28
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Originally Posted by TWLLM View Post
If after you do that, you still have reason/numbers to say it's a fold
At the time of posting, I believed that it was clearly a call. Therefore, it could not have possibly been results-oriented because my belief was that the villain made the right call despite the outcome. I posted, you said results-oriented, I said no, I thought the call was right, I changed my mind later. It is in writing, in sequence, in this thread. No need to show any more evidence.

Good, that's clear. Moving on.

I cannot remember a time where I ever in my life open pushed 200 BB's. So, it is hard to say what range I would do this with. I will say this. There was a little bit of logic (maybe faulty) to my push. I didn't suspect that the button was very strong. That flop was very unlikely to have hit him with just the king out there and given that I was using a bunch of hearts to made the flush. I also suspected, given what I knew, that he would not continuation bet with two other players because of the three flush and that he is pretty tight so I ruled out check/raise. But, the limper and me had seen previous action. A good portion of my stack had been won by showing a bluff to him. He was a bad player. He was seeing a lot of flops. He was calling me with a lot of hands but folding to later pressure. I really thought he might call with a king or with an Ah. Also, Mike Caro says to be a little crazy sometimes because it gets you action. If everyone folded, I thought I would get some future action because of my idiotic push. Given all this, and with a little bit of this-is-funny due to the perfect table talk set up, I pushed. I will say that there is no way I would do this without the made flush.

If you are asking me to analyze this given my knowledge of my range, then the villain was only 15% to win. If you are asking me to analyze this given his admitted range that he put on me (flush, two pair, set) then I would now (after talking though this in this forum) say he should fold because poker tracker says so. I do not think he could weight my likelihoods of pushing there any way other than to possibily give more weight to a flush.

Regards.
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Old May 30, 2007, 8:09pm   #29
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Originally Posted by seedload View Post
If you are asking me to analyze this given my knowledge of my range, then the villain was only 15% to win. If you are asking me to analyze this given his admitted range that he put on me (flush, two pair, set) then I would now (after talking though this in this forum) say he should fold because poker tracker says so. I do not think he could weight my likelihoods of pushing there any way other than to possibily give more weight to a flush.
Obviously we have to work with what he can know about your range, as we're asking whether or not he should have called. What you know to be your range in this spot (which is now flushes only, apparently... my fault, I thought you were being results-oriented when all of a sudden the only hand you have here is a flush, but ok) is irrelevant.

If his range was reasonable, then you need to consider what he has to think, reasonably, is the likelihood that you take such an action with each hand in the range.

For example, let's say he puts you on 2 pr (let's say just kings up, not 24), a set, AhXx, or a flush, then you need to do 2 steps to decide if it's a fold:

1) Run the poker stove numbers (you've done this, and obviously the numbers are fine b/c they're from poker stove). But you can't stop here. You have to re-orient the range around how often YOUR OPPONENT must reasonably expect you take the action with each hand...
2) Weigh the relative likelihood of the distribution/range given in 1, by the chance that you make the move (push) with each in that spot, based on the reasonable expectations of your opponent, not your own idea that you make the move with a flush only (unless he should have known that somehow... and the fact that you only have pulled this move once, and this was it, doesn't count, unless we're being... well, you know...)

Using what your opponent has to reason is a decent approximation of the relative likelihood of each, we'll say that you open push with a higher flush 1% of the time here, with two pair 0.5% of the time here, and with a set 1% of the time, and with AhXx 2% of the time, and with a lower flush 2% of the time.

Note that these numbers don't represent how often a player has each hand in this spot; rather, they represent how often a player plays each hand in the range by pushing. For example, you are more likely statistically speaking to have a higher flush than a lower flush versus his hand, if you have a flush. However, a sane, rational opponent is more likely to try to get value and maybe c/r with a high flush that he's not worried about having counterfeited. Usually, if a player open-pushes a flush, it's not going to be a high flush, despite the results of this hand. In my experience, anyway, players tend to bet out (and maybe even push) with lower flushes to protect their hands, whereas with a flopped nut/2nd nut they go for a c/r or a trap or value raise. So even though there might be twice (or more) as many flushes that beat him, as there are that he beats, we must re-weigh these numbers based on the relative likelihood of each in light of your play.

So now you re-evaluate (1) by the % likelihoods in (2). NOW you have the answer, and not before. You're right that 'of course I (meaning you) changed my mind that it should have been a fold', because you are using incomplete math. So please complete the steps (and you can substitute slightly different %s if you want for 2, although I don't see how these numbers are all that odd: they're all very low, and I have you pushing weak made hands and strong draws/sets more often than things like the 2nd nuts or very weak made hands like kings up).

You shouldn't come up with anything near him having reason to think he's beat 85% of the time! Maybe it will be a fold (marginal) or a call (marginal or clear), but it won't be that this is a clear fold by the numbers at least.

Once again, I apologize to any Baesians out there who know full well that this is a simplification.
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Oh, and obviously, TWLLM, we'd all rather you just ruled with an iron fist of nittiness and made all decisions without consultation, but that goes without saying, right?
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Old May 30, 2007, 8:13pm   #30
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At the time of posting, I believed that it was clearly a call. Therefore, it could not have possibly been results-oriented because my belief was that the villain made the right call despite the outcome. I posted, you said results-oriented, I said no, I thought the call was right, I changed my mind later. It is in writing, in sequence, in this thread. No need to show any more evidence.

Good, that's clear. Moving on.
Clear as mud, apparently. Did you just say that I accused you of being results-oriented when we were in agreement that it's a call? That is, when we both said call, I was accusing you of being results-oriented? This doesn't make sense, why would I criticize you for agreeing with me?

Isn't it more accurate to say that when you switched between call and fold, I called you results-oriented? In which case, whether you are or aren't, at least my speculation wasn't totally illogical (might have been wrong, but then again, all of a sudden you make the push with flushes only, so...)

EDIT - I suppose that, on reflection, yes I did say you were maybe posting the hand because of the results, rather than for a real strategy discussion, based on the principle that you rarely have Q6 here, but THIS TIME you did. So this would be the only way I could have called you 'results-oriented' while we were in agreement (that is, before you changed your mind), but obviously I've suggested your error is much deeper than that, so let's not let me off the hook that easily.
I also said your change of heart seems to be results-oriented, and that there is no way the correct math (steps 1 and 2) are even close to supporting your argument, unless you alter your perceived distribution in light of information we can't know as the person holding 78hh - such as the results, and your own newly asserted idea that you only push flushes here, etc.
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Originally Posted by DoubleU
Oh, and obviously, TWLLM, we'd all rather you just ruled with an iron fist of nittiness and made all decisions without consultation, but that goes without saying, right?

Last edited by TWLLM; May 30, 2007 at 8:20pm.
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