How I run when I take shots

[Rafvdv]

I took a shot at 100NL this month. first table I opened to take my first shot, I managed to get from $100 to +$600 in about 40 min. I kinda liked it.

[TWLLM]

Originally Posted by Ishbu3116

If you have been running bad why are you taking shots? Man I miss Party and Ongame.

A full ring game where the average pot is 30% of the full buy-in is worth taking the shot.

Normally I bankroll like a squirrel collects nuts for the winter, so I wasn't risking my head by playing this game.

[TWLLM]

Originally Posted by kid hustlr

scary how true that is

thinking about the hand, twllm do you never raise out of big blind here? how about if it was 6 max?

sick cooler

the turn check is fine.

thats a 2k river card

Yes, I would likely have raised out of the big blind had it been 6-max. In this particular game, however, a raise here would have been pointless and just building a big pot out of position with no idea where I stand (usually) and no way I can take the pot down now.

This table was pretty crazy with action, which is why I was taking the shot, so raising 99 here isn't a great idea, nor is it necessary to win a big pot (all I'd have to have done is hit my 9 without the board pairing and someone would pay me off).

Otherwise we're in agreement. ;)

[ChilloutNoob]

Originally Posted by luisma

Then when he can take shots if he always run bad???

because he runs good in the long run obviously

[TWLLM]

Originally Posted by ChilloutNoob

because he runs good in the long run obviously

BHAHAHAHAHAHAH

Man you crack me up.

[ChilloutNoob]

that you run very very bad sometimes implies that you run mad hot sometimes

[the_fox31]

Originally Posted by ChilloutNoob

that you run very very bad sometimes implies that you run mad hot sometimes

No. He doesn't have to reference his own relative luck at some other time to say he runs bad, but an absolute/universal EV neutural that he can inductively assume he is most likely to run. If induction is a valid argument (I don't think it is, but whatever) then he can say that he runs bad at one point in time even if he has never run good.

Anyways. We can all agree that running bad for the last 10 years should not affect whether or not he takes a shot at a higher level. There is no good reason to suspect that he will continue to run bad.

regards

[ChilloutNoob]

Originally Posted by the_fox31

No. He doesn't have to reference his own relative luck at some other time to say he runs bad, but an absolute/universal EV neutural that he can inductively assume he is most likely to run. If induction is a valid argument (I don't think it is, but whatever) then he can say that he runs bad at one point in time even if he has never run good.

tc,dr

[the_fox31]

Originally Posted by ChilloutNoob

tc,dr

I'm no doctor.

[TWLLM]

Originally Posted by the_fox31

Anyways. We can all agree that running bad for the last 10 years should not affect whether or not he takes a shot at a higher level. There is no good reason to suspect that he will continue to run bad.

I'm inclined to agree.

If I was on tilt from running bad, or short rolled from running bad, those would be good reasons.

Just seeing a very juicy game and moving up a level or two to try to capitalize on it isn't necessarily a bad move if my play isn't affected by anything specific.

I should point out that I'm not on some kind of life tilt or anything - when you run as bad as I have in the past, it's hard to get tilted just by beats/coolers.