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Old Jul 31, 2007, 8:12am   #11
kid hustlr
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Little Edgdes:

I spoke about little edges in my last post and I feel I should elaborate on that a little more. In most cases, these things don't matter but over time, ie. hundreds upon thousands or tournaments, this is where I feel I can beat the field and be succesful.

Below are 2 examples, which, although they didn't work out for me today, are plays which work in the long run and leave villian as an overall loser.

HAND 1:

PokerStars Game #11213975387: Tournament #56613817, $30+$3 Hold'em No Limit - Level IV (50/100) - 2007/07/30 - 06:52:30 (ET)
Table '56613817 3' 9-max Seat #9 is the button
Seat 1: The Tin&Amy (1410 in chips) is sitting out
Seat 2: kid hustlr (3465 in chips)
Seat 3: flin147 (3731 in chips)
Seat 4: Taita71 (1765 in chips)
Seat 5: boyxavier (2524 in chips)
Seat 6: Naps555 (4540 in chips)
Seat 7: jockibaer (2065 in chips)
Seat 8: Bygen (3345 in chips)
Seat 9: cashryders22 (1320 in chips)
The Tin&Amy: posts small blind 50
kid hustlr: posts big blind 100
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to kid hustlr [Kc Ac]
flin147: folds
Taita71: folds
boyxavier: raises 200 to 300
Naps555: folds
jockibaer: folds
Bygen: folds
cashryders22: folds
The Tin&Amy: folds
kid hustlr: raises 700 to 1000
boyxavier: raises 1400 to 2400
kid hustlr: raises 1065 to 3465 and is all-in
boyxavier: calls 124 and is all-in
*** FLOP *** [4d Js 2c]
*** TURN *** [4d Js 2c] [9d]
*** RIVER *** [4d Js 2c 9d] [Jc]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
kid hustlr: shows [Kc Ac] (a pair of Jacks)
boyxavier: shows [Td Th] (two pair, Jacks and Tens)
boyxavier collected 5098 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 5098 | Rake 0
Board [4d Js 2c 9d Jc]
Seat 1: The Tin&Amy (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 2: kid hustlr (big blind) showed [Kc Ac] and lost with a pair of Jacks
Seat 3: flin147 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: Taita71 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 5: boyxavier showed [Td Th] and won (509 with two pair, Jacks and Tens
Seat 6: Naps555 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 7: jockibaer folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 8: Bygen folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 9: cashryders22 (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)

In this case, early on in a tournament, I am NEVER re-raising with less than TT out of big blind. With stacks so shallow, I was actually hoping to take the pot down then and there but I think my raise makes it clear I'm not folding. Whilst I understand villian playing TT in that spot, other than PERHAPS AQ, the only other hands I'm re-raising here are JJ, QQ, KK and AA. Villian is lucky to be racing in this spot and, in the long run, I gain from him playing this hand as he did.

HAND 2:

PokerStars Game #11214018561: Tournament #56613817, $30+$3 Hold'em No Limit - Level IV (50/100) - 2007/07/30 - 06:58:55 (ET)
Table '56613817 3' 9-max Seat #9 is the button
Seat 1: The Tin&Amy (1260 in chips)
Seat 2: kid hustlr (891 in chips)
Seat 3: flin147 (3056 in chips)
Seat 4: Bisnaga (7247 in chips)
Seat 5: boyxavier (4998 in chips)
Seat 6: Naps555 (5440 in chips)
Seat 7: jockibaer (4205 in chips)
Seat 8: Bygen (2445 in chips)
Seat 9: cashryders22 (1870 in chips)
The Tin&Amy: posts small blind 50
kid hustlr: posts big blind 100
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to kid hustlr [4s 4c]
flin147: folds
Bisnaga: folds
boyxavier: raises 200 to 300
Naps555: folds
jockibaer: folds
Bygen: folds
cashryders22: folds
The Tin&Amy: folds
kid hustlr: calls 200
*** FLOP *** [8s 3h Th]
kid hustlr: bets 591 and is all-in
boyxavier: calls 591
*** TURN *** [8s 3h Th] [3d]
*** RIVER *** [8s 3h Th 3d] [7h]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
kid hustlr: shows [4s 4c] (two pair, Fours and Threes)
boyxavier: shows [Ac Kd] (a pair of Threes)
kid hustlr collected 1832 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 1832 | Rake 0
Board [8s 3h Th 3d 7h]
Seat 1: The Tin&Amy (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 2: kid hustlr (big blind) showed [4s 4c] and won (1832) with two pair, Fours and Threes
Seat 3: flin147 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: Bisnaga folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 5: boyxavier showed [Ac Kd] and lost with a pair of Threes
Seat 6: Naps555 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 7: jockibaer folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 8: Bygen folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 9: cashryders22 (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)

This hand is a little 'closer'. Same villian, in the same tournament, probably one round later from memory. I know villian to be active and with me being so short I dont think I can muck 44 here. In a spot like this I like a Stop and Go as villian is likely to have 2 overs. I was always shoving this flop, it just so happened that my opponent wasn't good enough to lay this down. Having said that, I think, if I was in his spot, I would. Calling 600 more chips here with a naked AK is not a great play imo and something which, in the end, my opponent will lose out on. Granted in this case my cards actually held but I can remember countless times in the past where I have used this play to 'avoid' a race so to speak. Little edges like these are what poker is all about and being able to identify them is really important.

I'm not sure if I explained hand 2 in the best way possible but I think what i'm getting at is a mixture between 'avoiding confrontations' (showdowns) and making mathematically correct folds.

This final hand is one from the 24+2 on tilt which I played this morning:

Full Tilt Poker Game #3108396833: $24,000 Guarantee (2320290, Table 124 - 2000/4000 Ante 500 - No Limit Hold'em - 23:57:32 ET - 2007/07/30
Seat 1: c-biz-kid (45,895)
Seat 2: CAISSES (113,272)
Seat 3: miniou (34,02
Seat 4: superAAman (17,294)
Seat 5: wildman74 (61,737)
Seat 6: jmb6644 (96,487)
Seat 7: JonnyRyba (69,036)
Seat 8: steviewu (124,675)
Seat 9: fredgrh (87,906)
c-biz-kid antes 500
CAISSES antes 500
miniou antes 500
superAAman antes 500
wildman74 antes 500
jmb6644 antes 500
JonnyRyba antes 500
steviewu antes 500
c-biz-kid posts the small blind of 2,000
CAISSES posts the big blind of 4,000
The button is in seat #8
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to c-biz-kid [Qh Kh]
miniou has 15 seconds left to act
miniou folds
superAAman raises to 16,794, and is all in
wildman74 folds
jmb6644 folds
JonnyRyba folds
steviewu folds
c-biz-kid raises to 45,395, and is all in
CAISSES has 15 seconds left to act
CAISSES folds
c-biz-kid shows [Qh Kh]
superAAman shows [5h Ah]
Uncalled bet of 28,601 returned to c-biz-kid
*** FLOP *** [9h 4c Th]
*** TURN *** [9h 4c Th] [Tc]
*** RIVER *** [9h 4c Th Tc] [2s]
c-biz-kid shows a pair of Tens
superAAman shows a pair of Tens
superAAman wins the pot (41,58 with a pair of Tens
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 41,588 | Rake 0
Board: [9h 4c Th Tc 2s]
Seat 1: c-biz-kid (small blind) showed [Qh Kh] and lost with a pair of Tens
Seat 2: CAISSES (big blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 3: miniou folded before the Flop
Seat 4: superAAman showed [5h Ah] and won (41,58 with a pair of Tens
Seat 5: wildman74 folded before the Flop
Seat 6: jmb6644 folded before the Flop
Seat 7: JonnyRyba folded before the Flop
Seat 8: steviewu (button) folded before the Flop
Seat 9: fredgrh is sitting out


This was a tough spot, and I would love to hear skeptix's view on this. Villian had just lost a big pot the hand before so he could have easily been on tilt. With 10k in the pot pre flop, and the raise to 16k, I am looking at calling 14k to win something like 40k. This is way to good of a spot for me to fold imo. KQ is ahead of his pushing range and even if it wasnt, the price is to good. Looking at it a little deeper, I'm currently sitting with 45k at 2k/4k with a big ante, as far as I'm concerned I'm pretty much in push or fold mode anyway, so 29k vs 45k doesnt really change how I play my hands. If I had 25k -30k PERHAPS I would fold this. This is due to the fact that if I was to lose that pot I lose all fold equity, I'm down to 10-15k in chips but even then I believe it's close. This is however one example where my stack size does influence whether I should be making a +EV call in the long run.

In this case, the move failed but once again, I think in the long run this is a small edge which I am happy take. There are many who wouldn't.

For the record I ran 99 on the button into QQ on big blind next hand so I was probably destined to go broke in this tournament. It happens.


Anyway, just some food for thought.

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Old Jul 31, 2007, 9:33am   #12
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First hand : your opponent could say the exact same thing as you (about how he's not doing this with less than TT and that his range is ahead of AK). Second hand : Again, from the opponent's perspective he's probably ahead against a random player. Against YOU it may be a -EV in the long run but against a random person it may be +EV. Even against you, if he knows your play well enough and knows you're going to be pushing any flop and therefore could consider this as a preflop race, paying 900 for all 5 cards. In addition, he is getting bad odds considering what you have but he is probably +EV against your range. Again, if he's not ahead of YOUR range then he's certainly ahead of the range of a random opponent (given the pot odds as well).

Last hand : isn't this standard?
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Old Jul 31, 2007, 11:16am   #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by WaxHaX0rS View Post
Against YOU it may be a -EV in the long run but against a random person it may be +EV.
That doesn't really matter and in fact it's one of the things that makes the stop and go effective. The power of the stop & go is that you are putting your opponent in a spot where it's difficult for him to know what the "right" decision is. As a result he will make the "wrong" decision about half the time (edit: I mean "right" and "wrong" in the fundamental theorem of poker sense, ie the decision he would make if he could see your hole cards). Of course in this case the right decision would be to fold but you could equally be making this move with something like an unimproved suited connector, in which case the right decision would be to call. In either case though you are forcing him to make a decision which might be a "mistake" in the fundamental theorem sense. On the other hand if you just shove preflop, he would be correct to call even if he could see your hole cards, so unless he doesn't understand pot odds he will make the correct decision 100% of the time (well, 99%, sometimes you will have AA I guess).

Of course about a third of the time if he has AK the flop will improve his hand, you'll shove and he'll call with fist pump, but that result is no different from what would have happened if you shoved preflop. Similarly, it turns out kid would have also won this hand if he'd shoved preflop. So the stop and go is not some magic way of winning lots of pots that you would otherwise lose, it's a way of slightly increasing your edge in certain situations by increasing the possibility that your opponent will make a mistake and therefore winning some pots that you would otherwise lose.

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Old Jul 31, 2007, 11:22am   #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by angusg View Post
That doesn't really matter and in fact it's one of the things that makes the stop and go effective. The point of the stop & go is that you are putting your opponent in a spot where it's difficult for him to know what the "right" decision is. As a result he will make the wrong decision about half the time. Of course in this case the right decision would be to fold but you could equally be making this move with something like an unimproved suited connector in which the right decision would be to call. In either case though you are forcing him to make a decision which might be a "mistake" in the fundamental theorem sense. On the other hand if you just shove preflop, he would be correct to call even if he could see your hole cards, so unless he doesn't understand pot odds he will make the correct decision 100% of the time (well, 99%, sometimes you will have AA I guess).
The right or wrong decision should not really be based on results of a single example. It sounds like you're being results-oriented. He's getting a little better than 2:1 and I doubt he's worse than a 2:1 dog on average (if he is then I'd bet it's very close).

edit: You yourself think that it's a good call about half the time so it's a clear call everytime given better than 2:1 pot odds.

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Old Jul 31, 2007, 11:28am   #15
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Quote:
Originally Posted by WaxHaX0rS View Post
First hand : your opponent could say the exact same thing as you (about how he's not doing this with less than TT and that his range is ahead of AK).

I dont see how his range can be ahead of AK if he is happily calling 3 bet all in's with TT. There aren't many ranges 'ahead' of AK. Maybe with the money in the pot it's ok to be playing those mid pairs in position. Maybe. The fact is he has (effectively) called all in praying to be 50-50. A lot of those times he's a big dog. That's an overall loss as fas as I'm concerned.

Second hand : Again, from the opponent's perspective he's probably ahead against a random player.

That's irrelevant. He's been playing with me for an hour and I have only shown down strong hands. In fact, in this spot, you would need a VERY strong read to be able to make a call like this profitably. Even further, what is ahead of on that board? If I have any piece he's 3-1 against, at best I might have a naked flush draw in which he might be a slight favourite. This is a losing call by him in the long run.

Against YOU it may be a -EV

That's what matters to me.

in the long run but against a random person it may be +EV.

Irrilevant to me.

Even against you, if he knows your play well enough and knows you're going to be pushing any flop and therefore could consider this as a preflop race, paying 900 for all 5 cards.

I see what you are getting at here, but you're incorrect. He still needs to figure me for enough of a hand to call the pre flop raise. It's not a pre flop race. There isn't enough money in the pot pre flop to call it that. This gets back to those little edges I was talking about. Even if he know's I'm pushing any flop, what does he beat? This once again goes back to calling and preying. In the first instance, he is hoping to be 50-50, In this hand, he is hoping to have the right 'price'. Once again though, the important thing to remember here is that this is a little edge for me.

In addition, he is getting bad odds considering what you have but he is probably +EV against your range.

See above, even if it's +EV for him, it's even greater EV for me. I know my range, calling with A high is a loss.

Again, if he's not ahead of YOUR range then he's certainly ahead of the range of a random opponent (given the pot odds as well).

You are talking as if people will call a raise then shove any flop with ATC. That's not correct.

Overall, I'm talking about long run for me. If people are making these plays, they are mistakes against me and on other (most) occasions I will benefit. Calling all in with TT in that spot, is a loss, against me,calling with A high is a loss, against me.

Last hand : isn't this standard?

In most cases, yes. I used this hand to more point out the relation to stack sizes and the correct (I believe) accordingly. As I said, there are instances where I think and I could be wrong, I need to muck KQ there.
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Old Jul 31, 2007, 11:30am   #16
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Quote:
Originally Posted by WaxHaX0rS View Post
The right or wrong decision should not really be based on results of a single example. It sounds like you're being results-oriented. He's getting a little better than 2:1 and I doubt he's worse than a 2:1 dog on average (if he is then I'd bet it's very close).

edit: You yourself think that it's a good call about half the time so it's a clear call everytime given better than 2:1 pot odds.
I mean "right" and "wrong" in the fundamental theorem of poker sense, ie the decision he would make if he could see your hole cards. (Have edited to specify this, I realise it was a bit vague.)

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Old Jul 31, 2007, 12:10pm   #17
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Quote:
First hand : your opponent could say the exact same thing as you (about how he's not doing this with less than TT and that his range is ahead of AK).
Quote:

I dont see how his range can be ahead of AK if he is happily calling 3 bet all in's with TT. There aren't many ranges 'ahead' of AK. Maybe with the money in the pot it's ok to be playing those mid pairs in position. Maybe. The fact is he has (effectively) called all in praying to be 50-50. A lot of those times he's a big dog. That's an overall loss as fas as I'm concerned.

True, in this case the opponent is probably a donk. However (and this kinda contradicts the main point of my post but I think it should be noted), HE actually effectively 4-betted himself allin. It seems in this case you're the one who's probably 50-50 at best, and you basically called his allin 4-bet (you put his last big blind in, which he obviously can't fold even if he knew you had AA). I'm just saying that he seems very strong here as well (see the end of post for a bit more on this bit...).

Second hand : Again, from the opponent's perspective he's probably ahead against a random player.

That's irrelevant. He's been playing with me for an hour and I have only shown down strong hands. In fact, in this spot, you would need a VERY strong read to be able to make a call like this profitably. Even further, what is ahead of on that board? If I have any piece he's 3-1 against, at best I might have a naked flush draw in which he might be a slight favourite. This is a losing call by him in the long run.

Addressed in other post.

Against YOU it may be a -EV

That's what matters to me.

I understand, I think you misunderstand the intention...(see end of post)


in the long run but against a random person it may be +EV.

Irrilevant to me.

Ditto what I said right above

Even against you, if he knows your play well enough and knows you're going to be pushing any flop and therefore could consider this as a preflop race, paying 900 for all 5 cards.

I see what you are getting at here, but you're incorrect. He still needs to figure me for enough of a hand to call the pre flop raise. It's not a pre flop race. There isn't enough money in the pot pre flop to call it that. This gets back to those little edges I was talking about. Even if he know's I'm pushing any flop, what does he beat? This once again goes back to calling and preying. In the first instance, he is hoping to be 50-50, In this hand, he is hoping to have the right 'price'. Once again though, the important thing to remember here is that this is a little edge for me.

Continuation of argument a little above, addressed in other post.

In addition, he is getting bad odds considering what you have but he is probably +EV against your range.

See above, even if it's +EV for him, it's even greater EV for me. I know my range, calling with A high is a loss.

Same old...


Again, if he's not ahead of YOUR range then he's certainly ahead of the range of a random opponent (given the pot odds as well).

You are talking as if people will call a raise then shove any flop with ATC. That's not correct.

I dunno, I know I'm mostly used to my lowstakes but I've railed a lot of your's and skeptix's (and others) $24+ tournies a lot and I dunno if I'd be surprised to see any two face cards making the move you made.

Overall, I'm talking about long run for me. If people are making these plays, they are mistakes against me and on other (most) occasions I will benefit. Calling all in with TT in that spot, is a loss, against me,calling with A high is a loss, against me.

Ya, addressed below.


Last hand : isn't this standard?

In most cases, yes. I used this hand to more point out the relation to stack sizes and the correct (I believe) accordingly. As I said, there are instances where I think and I could be wrong, I need to muck KQ there.




I guess you're taking it the wrong way. I'm not really trying to say you're not making -EV plays. I was just sort of being the devil's advocate, arguing the other guy's case. For example, he could say :

"Whilst I understand villian playing AK in that spot, other than PERHAPS AQ, the only other hands I'm re-raising here are, TT, JJ, QQ, KK and AA. Villian is lucky to be racing in this spot and, in the long run, I gain from him playing this hand as he did."


Of course the guy is probably a donk, I just kinda noticed, as I was reading it, how this could be turned around and so I just decided to point it out for some reason. There's no real point to it I suppose other than just to say that this guy really isn't playing too bad and he might have an edge over the field himself (although that TT hand was a little edgy, his 4-bet shove might have been warranted if he's seen you 3-bet at least a few times).
.

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Old Jul 31, 2007, 12:18pm   #18
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Quote:
Originally Posted by angusg View Post
I mean "right" and "wrong" in the fundamental theorem of poker sense, ie the decision he would make if he could see your hole cards. (Have edited to specify this, I realise it was a bit vague.)
I like how you edited it and added the second paragraph, makes your point much clearer. As I stated in my above post (sorry to spread all this across 3 posts), I'm simply being the devil's advocate in favor of this guy, no real point, and kid's +EV doesn't really have to do with my point. As I described above, this guy is getting better than 2:1 on his money and he is probably not more than a 2:1 dog on average.
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Old Jul 31, 2007, 2:09pm   #19
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Yeah, in practice I think there are definite arguments for the call with AK...that's part of what makes the stop and go an effective play, that sensible people can disagree about how to react to it and it ends up being a +EV move in the right circumstances whatever your opponent does.
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Old Aug 01, 2007, 1:02am   #20
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Nice to see I sparked some discussion lol.

Not planning on playing today, or tomorrow, will try and get in a session soon though.
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