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Old Oct 21, 2009, 6:13pm   #1
Banalanal
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First losing session in 12 days straight of playing. But I'm making up for it today.... Getting my ass handed to me...down 8 bi's.

Nasty business, no draws hitting no trips paying off, garbage...getting close to the 10 bi stop loss and I've only played half my daily session of 3500 hands.


Still playing well enough, not tilted, just venting....

Faaak Faaaak Faaaaak
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Old Oct 21, 2009, 8:16pm   #2
killcrazy
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It happens to us all.

if you're worth 2ptBB/100 and have an SD of 50ptBB/100, down 8 buyins in 1750 hands is a 2.1 standard deviation below the mean downswing. Approximate odds, 50:1.

PM me your stats if you want to know exactly how bad you're running, i wrote a spreadsheet to do this on my last major downswing

Kc
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Old Oct 22, 2009, 3:09pm   #3
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That was interesting to hear. Finished down 10 bi's. Little gun shy to start the day's session
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Old Oct 22, 2009, 3:20pm   #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by killcrazy View Post
It happens to us all.

if you're worth 2ptBB/100 and have an SD of 50ptBB/100, down 8 buyins in 1750 hands is a 2.1 standard deviation below the mean downswing. Approximate odds, 50:1.

PM me your stats if you want to know exactly how bad you're running, i wrote a spreadsheet to do this on my last major downswing

Kc
Any chance you could take my MTT stats from OPR and work out how i've been running over the past few months based on your formula? Assume i'm +60% ROI expectation in 180+ fields.
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Old Oct 22, 2009, 11:01pm   #5
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My "formula" is 8th grade maths, but perhaps we've all forgotten everything we were taught in school because at the time we didn't realise which bits would be useful. I'll try to make this as simple as possible for the folks who flunked math.

First you need to know (i) your winrate in BB/100 hands (ii) your standard deviation in BB/100hands. Your database program will be able to tell you these.

By way of example we'll go with a player worth 4BB/100 with a standard deviation of 100BB/100 as in my first post. That player played 1750 hands (note that because we have everything expressed per hundred hands, the figure we work with is 1750/100 = 17.5) and lost 800BB (so they "won" -800BB).

First calculate your mean expected earn, over 1750 hands, the mean earn is 17.5 x 4 BB = 70 BB

Next calculate your actual earn minus your expected earn; -800BB - 70BB = -870BB

Now the standard deviation over the period, (square root of 17.5) x (standard deviation per 100 hands); sqrt(17.5)x100 = 418.33

Finally you divide your (earn-expectation) by your standard deviation over the sample; -870 / 418.33 = -2.08.

Over this sample of 1750 hands, our hero has run 2.08 standard deviations below the mean. You now either find a calculator with a normsdist function, or you google for "normal distribution table" and read the value for 2.08, which is 0.9812. The rarity of this swing is of the 98.12th percentile. Or if you prefer 100-98.12 = 1.88% chance of this happening. 52:1.

Kc
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