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View Poll Results: I would like to stake skeptix for...
Anything! 12 36.36%
Nothing, gtfo. 3 9.09%
Stars nightly when it's $320. 0 0%
FTP Monday 1k. 0 0%
Stars sunday tournies when Skeptix is low on stars. 4 12.12%
Skeptix should learn to play cash games. 13 39.39%
Skeptix is a bastard. 9 27.27%
Multiple Choice Poll. Voters: 33. You may not vote on this poll

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Old Oct 02, 2007, 12:08am   #21
skeptix82
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There is no way I reduce my "premium" for $200-500 events. If someone would like to stake me for $1k+ events, I would then be willing to reduce my "premium" to 40%. If someone would like to stake me for $5k+ events, I would then be willing to reduce my "premium" to as low as 30%.

You must remember that while I do enjoy playing for you guys, I'm not in the business of handing over my EV to others for shits and giggles. This is a mutually beneficial arrangement, set up by me, to play events that have a lot of value but very high variance.

With stakeback, and the assumption that my playing these events has a +EV, there is no risk. The risk you speak of is a function of time and variance.

I know you'd like to have an amazing deal set before you, but that's not gonna happen. What you will get is a good deal (and you evidently think it is a good deal by being the biggest taker).
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Old Oct 02, 2007, 4:10am   #22
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Originally Posted by skeptix82 View Post
There is no way I reduce my "premium" for $200-500 events. If someone would like to stake me for $1k+ events, I would then be willing to reduce my "premium" to 40%. If someone would like to stake me for $5k+ events, I would then be willing to reduce my "premium" to as low as 30%.

You must remember that while I do enjoy playing for you guys, I'm not in the business of handing over my EV to others for shits and giggles. This is a mutually beneficial arrangement, set up by me, to play events that have a lot of value but very high variance.

With stakeback, and the assumption that my playing these events has a +EV, there is no risk. The risk you speak of is a function of time and variance.

I know you'd like to have an amazing deal set before you, but that's not gonna happen. What you will get is a good deal (and you evidently think it is a good deal by being the biggest taker).
Wow. There are just too many things for me to disagree with in here. Some of these issues I've already pointed out my true feelings on in the previous post.

I disagree with you that we're getting a 'good deal' with the current staking arrangement, even though you're right that stakeback does make the arrangement somewhat more amenable. I would say the current arrangement is barely adequate.

I do have to ask this, though: do you have any numbers on your ROI on tournaments with a buyin over $200 versus those with a buyin below $200? Or by some similar dichotomy? I know it's always just based on 'past results' that aren't always reliable vs. 'long-run' expectation, but I would be REALLY interested in seeing these figures. This way we could evaluate your perceived profitability in these tournaments, beyond just the past 3 staking arrangements (which we'll all agree could easily be explained by variance).

All that said, I'm stuck backing you in similar ventures whether I like it or not based on the fact that I know you're good enough that, with the amount of stakeback potentially owed, the investment becomes much better. But that's not to say that, to a new potential investor, the arrangement is amicable - it's only 'good' for me because I have a lot of lost money to recover, which is a shitty way for a barely adequate arrangement to become decent.

PS - I should add this isn't anything personal with Skeptix (if I didn't trust you or believe you were a good player I never would have staked you in the first place). I just wonder about the veracity of your perceptions versus reality as concerns the higher buy-in events and your ROI.
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Oh, and obviously, TWLLM, we'd all rather you just ruled with an iron fist of nittiness and made all decisions without consultation, but that goes without saying, right?

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Old Oct 02, 2007, 10:18am   #23
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First off, I don't really track my numbers as well as I should, so I don't have ROI or other numbers for particular buy-in levels. Secondly, any numbers I did have would be rather irrelevant due to a very small sample size. Thirdly, it is not the buy-in amount that decides ROI, it is the expected edge you have over the field. For instance, I feel there was tremendous value in the WCOOP ME because of all the people satting in, whereas I wouldn't feel there was such value in the weekly Super Tuesday event (which has a smaller buy-in).

Unless I can play the exact same event over and over hundreds of times, you'll never know the true ROI. All you have to go on are my instincts as a poker player, and your own. I feel that my decision making abilities within poker are very strong, and are constantly getting better. Part of your staking me is trusting my judgement, and not only in the individual decision making within a hand, but in a much broader sense.

With that being said, I have played two $1000 buyin tournaments online. In one I finished 6th for $6500+ when my AK went down to Phatcat's AQ all-in preflop. My ROI for $1000 mtts is over 300%
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Old Oct 02, 2007, 3:11pm   #24
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With that being said, I have played two $1000 buyin tournaments online. In one I finished 6th for $6500+ when my AK went down to Phatcat's AQ all-in preflop. My ROI for $1000 mtts is over 300%
I agree that RIO for tourneys over $1k will be difficult for you to figure out if you've only played 2.

But surely you've played enough tournaments over $200 (not just WCOOP and FTOPS) that the sample size, while small, won't be miniscule. I understand you don't have the numbers lying around, maybe I can poke around looking at the various 'tracking' sites and see what turns up. I know those aren't very reliable on their own though, which is why I wanted to see what you had.

BTW, I realize ROI isn't based on buy-in it's based on edge (don't insult my intelligence - lol), but as buy-in increases, edge tends to decrease. Yes, there are lots of satellite winners, but there are less and less as you go higher (the Sunday Million will have several thousand, and the WCOOP ME maybe one thousand, esp. if you remove people who satellited in but are regularly playing $100+ mtts).
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Oh, and obviously, TWLLM, we'd all rather you just ruled with an iron fist of nittiness and made all decisions without consultation, but that goes without saying, right?
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Old Oct 02, 2007, 3:36pm   #25
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The tracking sites aren't going to tell you his ROI with a good enough accuracy, so you might as well just try to guess it yourself. (If they say 30%, it should probably be interpreted as "30, give or take 200" percent).
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Old Oct 02, 2007, 3:51pm   #26
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I don't know anything about your play, your bank roll, your current goals or your normal playing grounds, but I still think you are better off just playing cash games.
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Old Oct 02, 2007, 4:11pm   #27
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I think your musical taste... is.. well.. HOT!... there I said it....
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Old Oct 02, 2007, 4:14pm   #28
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He won't be better off if he gets bored at the cash game grind and then blows off half is bankroll at one stretch. Now I don't know much about skeptix, but I will assume he plays Tournies for a reason. I agree that money games offer better return of investment for a lot of people, but the great things about a tourny is if you are better then the other people you should be able to place fairly often, it only takes one big score to make up for multiple bad tournies, and if you are prone to getting bored then it offers you a faster paced game that has an end in sight.
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Old Oct 02, 2007, 7:52pm   #29
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I've often thought cash games would be the way to go. However, I've been playing like 95% tournaments ever since I started playing. It would take a while to make the switch to cash games, and I would have to absorb a whole new skill set before I could expect to have the same sort of winrate I now enjoy in tournaments.
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Old Oct 02, 2007, 8:30pm   #30
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If you watch a bunch of cardrunners videos first, you could make the transition very fast.

But if you don't feel like switching to cash games, don't bother. It's not like you really need to change anything right now.
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