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Old Dec 24, 2007, 9:27am   #41
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What odds do you want on him winning NH? It's the ONLY state he even has a remote chance in. Iowa if you want as well, although you'd be wasting your money at 500-1 in Iowa. NH, maybe, if the stars align and all of the other candidates supporters have car accidents simultaneously on their way to the primary.

I'll take you up on it if the odds are right.

What odds would you give me for John Edwards to win Iowa (not the nomination necessarily)...?
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Old Dec 24, 2007, 9:35am   #42
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Not interested in a bet on Edwards, but I'd be willing to put down some money at 20-1 that Paul wins NH or Iowa. A 20-1 bet on him winning NH and another 20-1 bet on him winning Iowa. I'd also be willing to do 10-1 that he gets 1st/2nd in the two states (same as before, one bet on each state). Also 5-1 on him coming 1st/2nd/3rd in the two states (again, one bet per state).

I'd be willing to put down $100 per bet if you are willing, but I doubt you got all that money handy, as I'd want either Shads, KrappyKonnect or TWLLM to act as escrow on this.
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Old Dec 24, 2007, 10:47am   #43
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Yeah I don't have the money in my bankroll spare to cover $100 bets at those odds.

How about a friendly $10 on Paul to win Iowa at 20-1... and i'll reinvest the money by buying a share in your stakewatch when you lose

Can't give you 5-1 on top three, that's almost even money imo, especially in NH
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Old Dec 24, 2007, 11:01am   #44
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Ok, how about two 20-1 bets at $10. One bet that he wins Iowa, and one bet that he wins New Hampshire. Shares are $20 a piece you know. I'll go ahead and just give you one share, and if I win either or both of the bets that share is invalid (I won't have completed the stake by the time these primaries run).

If that's the stake I don't need an escrow, I feel that you're good for the rare scenario that I take down $200 or $400.

Bet or no bet? I can clear up any confusion about the bets if need be.
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Old Dec 24, 2007, 11:03am   #45
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Also to anyone else that thinks I'm foolhardy...

I'll continue to take any action up to $100 per bet that I previously outlined. 20-1 to win Iowa or New Hampshire (you can't pick and choose, an even amount has to be on each state). 10-1 to get 1st/2nd, same deal. 5-1 to get 1st/2nd/3rd, same deal.
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Old Dec 24, 2007, 11:04am   #46
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Okay, lets do it, bet is on.

$200 per state for Iowa or NH if he wins, and one share for me when he finishes 4th in Iowa and 3rd in NH. Can easily afford the payout if you win, assuming you are happy to be paid on Full Tilt.
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Old Dec 24, 2007, 11:06am   #47
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By the way, does anyone want to give me 5-1 on Edwards to win Iowa or McCain to win New Hampshire? Edwards is polling third, McCain second at the moment.

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Old Dec 24, 2007, 11:21am   #48
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Wheeeeeeeee, political betting is fun afaik.

Ok, so here's the bet....

I give you one free share in my stake.

If Ron Paul wins in either Iowa or New Hampshire, this share is invalid and is immediately considered as a share I bought myself, regardless of how I've done so far in said stake. For each state he wins, you give me $200 on Full Tilt.

I would like to further ramp up this bet by giving you action on both of your bets.

I'll put up $50 on each of your bets at 5-1. 5-1 on McCain winning NH and 5-1 on Edwards winning Iowa.

So if you win both of your bets and I lose both of mine, you get $100 from me on Full Tilt and a free share into my stake.

If you lose both of your bets and I lose both of mine, we are even and your share is considered invalid.

If you win one of your bets, lose the other and I lose both of mine, you get $50 from me and a free share into my stake.

Etc, etc, etc.

Type "Agree with above betting guidelines" to lock in bet.
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Old Dec 24, 2007, 11:31am   #49
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With my two, i meant would anyone offer me 5-1 odds as a bookie, as in me making the bet, not taking the bet there. So i'll pass on those extra two bets.

Looks like you got pretty good odds here by conventional standards, as Paul is 21-1 for Iowa and 9-1 for New Hampshire according to Betfair. I think those odds are inflated due to his money edge though, money is overrated in politics.

Agree to aforementioned conditions for Ron Paul in Iowa/NH.

Iowa is no chance, but there's a tiny, tiny chance for you in NH if Huckabee wins Iowa but stays broke, Romney finishes third or worse and McCain finishes seventh or something in Iowa. I think my odds are fine, since I believe there's less than a 5% chance that he wins each state. You need to hit your one outer here.

Obviously McCain at 5-1 is just silly, he's paying 2-1 at Betfair, Edwards is paying 4.90 there so that's pretty much even with the odds I wanted.

Political betting is indeed fun, I had a 100% strike rate in the recent Australian election (although I put all of my bets in writing at another forum I post at, I was too lazy to actually go out and put the bets on)

I also tipped Huckabee at 20-1 for the nomination a few months ago. He's probably about 3-1 i'd say at the moment.

I've just become a card rack on the bubble in the tournament i'm playing in, sports/election betting is +EV in the eyes of the poker gods?
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Old Dec 24, 2007, 11:43am   #50
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Maybe you don't understand, I'm laying 5-1. So you put up $10 for McCain NH, I put up $50. You put up $10 for Edwards in Iowa, I put up $50.
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