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Old Nov 24, 2007, 4:33am   #11
Ishbu3116
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I see nothing wrong. The only reason to do this is if you have such a large portion of your bankroll on the table and you are cannot afford to lose a big pot. So you would give up a chunk of EV to protect your stack.
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Old Nov 24, 2007, 5:10am   #12
chrissy
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jimmytrick View Post
Probably made the right play?

I don't see that you yet understand the gravity of your error. If you look at poker as one life time session, which it is, and a winning player's edge as modest, which it is, surely you can see that 100% of the types of players that sacrifice such huge EV+ spots in an effort to reduce variance are 100% losing players 100% of the time.

Probably made the right play?
So the correct play would have been precisely what i'd done - to get it all in on the turn?

As I'd mentioned, the player I was up against is a donk and when he re-raised me I put him on a set so i KNOW what he has. If the board paired on the river, i can lay down my hand. However, if the board didn't pair, I don't think HE can lay down his hand. So it seems that either way, I will get paid off for my straight (if it holds up), and not have to risk and all-in and get sucked out, which will happen 20% of the time. The only thing I'll lose is the guy on the flush draws remaining stack, because he obviously will not call an all-in if he misses on the river.

Against a good player I'd push because I won't get paid if the board doesn't pair.

Imagine you're playing poker with your cards face up... wouldn't you try to reduce the gambling element by waiting to see the river first, instead of getting the money all in every time you're ahead?

Last edited by chrissy; Nov 24, 2007 at 5:27am.
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Old Nov 24, 2007, 5:23am   #13
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The problem is you DON'T KNOW.

What if he has two pair? Then the board pairs (without giving him the fullhouse) and you lose the set. He's a donk. That's all you say about him. You don't say he's a calling station donk or an aggressive donk.

So you never ever with 100% certainty know he has AA/KK/QQ/77. He could have AK/AQ/KQ/AQ/KQ/A7/Q7/K7. (I thought I'd list all of the possibilities to make a point). Not to mention a multitude of flush draw + pair combinations.

Your example of playing with the cards face up does not apply because you do not KNOW he has a set.
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Old Nov 24, 2007, 5:42am   #14
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Lol, I'm confused...

So you don't like playing monster pots with the nuts as an 80% favorite?
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Old Nov 24, 2007, 2:28pm   #15
chrissy
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Originally Posted by tmash View Post
Lol, I'm confused...

So you don't like playing monster pots with the nuts as an 80% favorite?
strange as it sounds, not really, because i have a track record of getting sucked out when all the money is in and i'm at least an 80% favorite.

maybe i'm playing too big, but a $1300 loss does hurt. even if i had a 50k bankroll there are many things i can do with $1300 and it sucks to lose it on a gamble, even when i'm getting 4-1. perhaps as a poker player, i need to learn to be willing to gamble more.
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Old Nov 24, 2007, 3:19pm   #16
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Originally Posted by chrissy View Post
strange as it sounds, not really, because i have a track record of getting sucked out when all the money is in and i'm at least an 80% favorite.
This is bad. You need to get over it or it's going to cripple you.
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Old Nov 24, 2007, 11:42pm   #17
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chrissy View Post
strange as it sounds, not really, because i have a track record of getting sucked out when all the money is in and i'm at least an 80% favorite.

maybe i'm playing too big, but a $1300 loss does hurt. even if i had a 50k bankroll there are many things i can do with $1300 and it sucks to lose it on a gamble, even when i'm getting 4-1. perhaps as a poker player, i need to learn to be willing to gamble more.
Well there are few instances where you'll be playing a $1300 pot and have the other player drawing completely dead....there's always an element of risk when putting all your chips in.

If it was preflop, and you had AA, and he pushes all-in for $1300, do you fold?
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Old Nov 25, 2007, 12:09am   #18
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strange as it sounds, not really, because i have a track record of getting sucked out when all the money is in and i'm at least an 80% favorite.
We call that the 'TWLLM-effect' around here.

Seriously though, this isn't omaha, and putting the money in here is pretty much never -EV. Even if you're against JTcc sometimes, the pot is big enough that you have to gamble for it (if forced - I'll address the choice issue in a second).

One thing you have to try to remember is that, even if you run really, really, really, really bad, you still have to make the right play. For example, there was one stretch where I put the money in with an overset and good to one out, and lost three straight times with it. The odds of that are like 75k to 1 or something, but whatever. The point is, I felt fine about my play, and I knew it was correct in each case. I'm saying this to point out that it is one thing to say "I've been running really bad in big pots" and another to say "I've been running really bad in big pots, so I should change what I'm doing". The first isn't harmful (usually); the latter is a serious problem. You cannot go around changing your play or questioning obviously correct/standard plays based on how you're running. You should neither start making weak folds, nor making loose calls, based on how you've been running.

To provide some theoretical perspective, the same logic that defines that the long run does not *actually* exist, is that which says that previous results in independent events do not affect present/future outcomes. You could run extremely bad until you die, or you could run extremely well until you die - both are possible, but neither is very likely. It is most likely that you will run somewhere in between in the future, but always remember that how you ran yesterday, the week before etc. doesn't actually impact on how you run today/tomorrow, even if it seems that way. Who knows, maybe both you and I will win the lottery tomorrow. So just remember that changing your play based on your past history/luck is neither prudent nor logical.

Getting back to the issue of how you played your hand, I think that for the most part, your play was extremely standard and obviously correct for holdem. Ishbu is right (ldo) about the bankroll issue, but assuming that isn't a concern, the only way I can see it being correct for you not to push on the turn, is if you know what each of your opponents has as a holding (eg. 'set' or 'flush draw', although not exactly which set or which flush draw; excepting two pair where you need to know which two pair they have). If you know with a great degree of certainty what your opponents hold, you can play 'perfectly' on the river, and this may be more +EV than simply pushing and hoping for value from calls. Obviously I'm oversimplifying here, and there are other issues such as cards that kill your action/split the pot, but in theory if you knew what they had, you could figure out the EV of pushing versus calling and playing the river perfectly.

Practically speaking, however, you can't know in this situation what each player has. You have to raise here (maybe not push, but certainly raise) because you cannot extract maximum value otherwise. You do not know exactly what they hold, nor do know which cards kill your action etc. Hence, getting the money in here is definitely the correct play. I could see the value of raising to less than what you did as a value bet, but pushing is fine since the pot is large, and you want to either protect your hand, or force them into calling in a clearly -EV spot for them. You also make playing the hand out very easy, removing the chance that a misplay on your part could decrease your potential EV.

So I think you played the hand fine, and you're just being results-oriented and thinking you need to change something based on the outcome. Let's face it, you would never have posted this hand had the board not paired or brought the flush, and you would not have questioned your play if you'd won. I totally understand posting this hand in poker stories as a vent, but there is no merit in a strategy of not putting the money in with the nuts based on your previous bad luck.
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Oh, and obviously, TWLLM, we'd all rather you just ruled with an iron fist of nittiness and made all decisions without consultation, but that goes without saying, right?
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Old Nov 25, 2007, 12:56am   #19
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thanks for the helpful responses. looks like i really need to get over "running bad" and hope things balance out in the long run.
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Old Nov 25, 2007, 4:37am   #20
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chrissy View Post
I decided to push to make it obvious that I had the nut straight and to take it down.
lol

was it your rent money?
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crazy thing is is i win money lol. that should be a ray of hope for all newbies
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