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Old Nov 24, 2007, 6:36am   #1
gustavv
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Default $8/16 K9o from Button

Hero has K9o.
What is the line here ?

Thoughts:

I was pretty sure that Villain has nothing to beat me on Turn (but has a draw or both draws and likely overcards), so i thought about a raise. However, he will pay the turn with a draw, but fold the river if he missed it. Notwithstanding, he might bluff the river if he doesn't catch his card. Therefore, the only reason to raise the turn seems to prevent that Villain checks the river and fold to a bet in case he misses his draw.
Since he should (might) have lots of outs and the hand seems vulnerable i was not sure about the best play here.


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Old Nov 24, 2007, 10:13am   #2
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My GOD my eyes!!!!

Ok so let's see

Preflop: Yup that's good
Flop: Good

Turn: Interesting.....

When someone does something like this I'm inclined to believe he's picked up a draw. The line make absolutely no sense if he's got a decent hand. He's hoping you missed the flop and now he can take it down for 1 bet rather than risking Check-Raising you and you have something that you want to show down.

I think here it's just too likely he's on a draw as teh board now contains 2 flush draws and buckets full of straight possibilities but a donk doesn't make any sense unless he's metagaming, knowing you're going to raise any pair and planning to 3-bet you.

In this case I think you took the right line. If you raise and he's on a draw he's going to do one of two things:

1) Call. You aren't getting anything else out of him unless he hits so no more profitable than calling down and may cost you an extra bet if he hits.
2) 3-bet Semi Bluff you in which case you're going to have a REALLY hard time calling with middle pair there.
3) Immediately fold because he had crap. No value.

Personally I'd just call down here like you did hoping to continue to induce bluffs, in fact I'd call down with and decent A-High here, his bet is just far too suspicious for me to believe him and when people make massively unnatural bets like this I'm more inclined to look them up. The only hand you miss out on if you Raise the turn is an A-high flush draw which may call you down or something like a lesser 9 or a hand like Q8 and other hands are too likely to 3-bet you and put you to a really nasty test. You've got position so use it.

If he checks the river it's an interesting one but on that river i think it's an easy value bet as you may get called by things like Ace-high draws and 8's.

A lot of it is very read dependant though. Some LP players will instantly bet out with QT there, afraid that you won' bet the turn with a 9 or Jack in which case you may even find a fold but against an unknown it's between folding and raising.

Nice of hiim to let you know he's a donk in the chatbox though.
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Old Nov 24, 2007, 3:31pm   #3
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I am not a limit player, but I raise this turn. Fold to a 3bet and check behind the river if he calls.
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Old Nov 24, 2007, 10:30pm   #4
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I play limit, badly

I raise the turn, fold to a 3 bet, then bet any non diamond river.
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Old Nov 24, 2007, 11:59pm   #5
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Originally Posted by iceickle View Post
I play limit, badly

I raise the turn, fold to a 3 bet, then bet any non diamond river.
You can't fold to a 3-bet on Turn here.
And even if a diamond appears on the river, you have to bet in case Villain checks. Check = Easy bet.
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Old Nov 25, 2007, 9:28am   #6
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That's one of the reasons I hate free showdown raising.

Everyone now knows what it is and on a board like this it's so easy to 3-bet semi-bluff making a FSDR fold.

If you feel like you have to call a 3-bang here and hate it (I know I'd hate going to 4 bets on the turn/river with middle pair on a board like this) then call down.

Incidentally i think this has a lot to do with the stakes. One of the stats I now have flashing up on my HUD is "Won $ when raised Turn" and "Won $ when raised river". For just about every player at 1/2 and below the percentage will be huge because players are afraid to bluff the big streets with a raise. In fact in Terry Borer's book he says one of the stats to keep track on with maybe a spreadhseet or in the notes is how many times a turn riaser can beat TPNK. He recokons that it's about 95% of the time at stakes below 5/T online. At 8/16 you've got a lot of tougher decsisions as now people know all about FSD raises etc and will actively try and use them against you.

I don't think this is a raise for value then a value bet since what hands pay you off on the Turn & River? I think there are many more hands which will donk bluff both streets than will pay off 3 bets on the big streets, if you spike 2 pair or a 9 on the river you can get a raise in anyway becasue you're in position.
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Last edited by Boomer2k6; Nov 25, 2007 at 9:31am.
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Old Nov 25, 2007, 9:58am   #7
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I agree with you. I think as played was the best line here.
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Old Nov 25, 2007, 2:16pm   #8
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pretty advanced stuff here
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Old Nov 25, 2007, 9:06pm   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Boomer2k6 View Post
In fact in Terry Borer's book he says one of the stats to keep track on with maybe a spreadhseet or in the notes is how many times a turn riaser can beat TPNK. He recokons that it's about 95% of the time at stakes below 5/T online.
Great mention, this has saved me sooo much money at the micro's.
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Old Nov 27, 2007, 9:31pm   #10
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Just call down, you have second pair and the 8d completes a number of draws. You certainly are not folding but you don't want to pump any more money into the pot if you are behind. Definitely don't raise for a free showdown because if you get 3 bet you have a very tough decision. I think the way you played it was perfect.
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