THE FORUMS


German ForumsGeneral DiscussionStrategyFrench Forum

Go Back   PokerTips.org Forums > Strategy > Beginners' Corner

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old Jan 14, 2008, 1:22pm   #21
moculon
Brunson
 
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 124
Reputation: 10
moculon is on a distinguished road
Default Table Abuse!

I haven't got the hand history so i'll summarise quickly. Blinds are on two small/mid stacks (not the shove/push guys) and we're in the final 30 in the 180 4$ on stars. Villain has been stealing a lot and I have a note that he tends to steal with KQ, AJ etc and limp pairs (QQ and JJ he'd limped according to my note!). He made his standard blind stealing bet from mid/late after it folded to him. I was acting just before the blinds and had 7-7.

I put him on some sort of high cards so I'm 55%-45% to double (we're both mid stacked) and probably 10% chance he decides to fold KQ etc when he's pushed for all his stack. I saw that as a shove here as +EV move. If I lose I'm out, but hey I was drifting with a mid sized stack (7,000) with the blinds moving to 400/800 soon. This double through gave me a shot at the final table, and if I lost I was looking like struggling for the basic money (which isn't really worth it anyway).

I received some abuse from a random player at the table (who is good from opr stats). I felt that even a flat call loses my fold equity (he's only played a steal he may have nothing and fold) and I have no real way of knowing what overcards on that flop mean to me. I'm either folding or shoving here, and I felt having the edge plus the chance of a fold it was the right move?

Any thoughts?
moculon est déconnecté   Reply With Quote

Sponsored Links
Don't like this ad? Register to make it go away!

Old Jan 14, 2008, 2:44pm   #22
deuce65
Brunson
 
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 221
Reputation: 10
deuce65 is on a distinguished road
Default

"Of course it is true. If you think you have a tiny edge, you think have a tiny edge."

No, it isn't. Logically, we are more likely to encounter a good strong player later on then early on. Of course, as mentioned above it is possible that we might encounter a weak player later on, odds are that the later in the TM we get, the better (on average) our opponent is. Say you have something like AsKs and our opponent holds some sort of small\medium pocket pair. Now, this isn't a 55/45 situation for us, as we are actually a slight dog, but on the other hand, we never know exactly what are opponent holds anyway so I think it is a good example. Now, wouldn't we prefer to play that hand against a poor player then a good one?

"But you won´t (expect to) get it in a practically neutral $EV hand. If the guy behind you ends up taking all his chips in this hand, then tough luck. It was not meant to be. But that doesn´t mean your decision to fold was wrong."

Again, not true at all. We aren't talking about pushing or anything, we are talking about playing cards. See my above example. It is a fairly neutral position, yet against a weak opponent we stand a good chance of making chips, but not so much as against a strong opponent. If we take this position early, we have two advantages. One, we are more likely to be up against a poor opponent who we can outplay. And two, we are more likely to not be playing for stacks (where it basically would come down to luck).

"But we have an expectation of what will happen. When someone goes all-in preflop, and you have AA, you don´t know that it will end up profitable to call, but you expect it to be. That is what EV is. Expected Value."

But we aren't talking about going all in in marginal situations. We are talking about playing them. Yes, that may end up with our opponent pushing, but it very well might not. What are we supposed to do, wait around for AA all day? Can I sit at your right next TM? I meant that as a joke of course, no offense intended, still, I don't see how we can not play anything but premium hands until the later rounds. At that point, we are bound to have a relatively small stack in comparison to our opponents, we are going to facing rather large blinds, and will no longer be playing cards post, but rather push or fold pre where we are forced to take actions we might not otherwise want to take. This is not good if your primary advantage is your post play, as you are now not going to have any post play.

"which is why there are certain times when folding aces pre is correct etc.. (though this is disgusting and id probably never do it)."

If we aren't willing to play Aces early on, what ARE we willing to play? We aren't going to be folding are way to number 1.

Anyways, I have tried to emphasise that I am not suggesting we act like a maniac or anything. Rather, what I said earlier:

No, my solution is to consider all my options, and in some cases, that includes taking a bit of a risk early on. I'm not saying one should do this all the time, what I do think though is that one shouldn't exclude certain things just because they are afraid of a risk. The fact is, if I am 55 and you are 45, I am going to win more, and more often. And in a TM, we can't sit around and wait for a 90/10 type situation.

Sometimes, taking a 55/45 is correct. And to say it is never correct is a leak, I think. At the very least, you're going to get robbed every time you sit in the blinds.

Last edited by deuce65; Jan 15, 2008 at 1:34am.
deuce65 est déconnecté   Reply With Quote
Old Jan 14, 2008, 7:44pm   #23
TJTay89
I am a wolf
 
TJTay89's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 2,935
Reputation: 1993
TJTay89 has a brilliant futureTJTay89 has a brilliant futureTJTay89 has a brilliant futureTJTay89 has a brilliant futureTJTay89 has a brilliant futureTJTay89 has a brilliant futureTJTay89 has a brilliant futureTJTay89 has a brilliant futureTJTay89 has a brilliant futureTJTay89 has a brilliant futureTJTay89 has a brilliant future
This member received this PokerTips Exclamation Mark for one of a number of reasons: blogging, winning a contest, contributing great content, etc. Keep an eye out for chances to receive one of these by your profile!
Default

It is never good to fold aces pre-flop early in a tournament. The only time it is +EV to do so is when you are very late in a satellite tourny and you have a stack that isn't in trouble of getting blinded away, and there are one or more people left who are on life support, and another large stack bets really large, if you tangle with him you will not be increasing your chance to get the satellite spot (assuming that it pays more then 1st place) since your chance of getting the spot by just letting the short stacks get knocked out is great enough that it isn't worth it to you to take the 20% risk of losing most of your stack and being one of those left on life-support.

I have never had to do this with AA, but I did fold KK once in a sat. I was in 6/35 place and the top 33 got the satellite. The 2nd largest stack went all in from the cut-off and I folded it in the SB because I knew I could sit out and win, so playing the hand did nothing to increase my chance of winning while potentially could end my tourny life with out getting the satellite. Trust me, it stung to fold it, but ten hands later I had won a seat, and that is what the goal was.

Since the goal in a satellite and the goal in a regular tournament are different, there is rarely a case that I could think of where you would want to be folding AA pre-flop during a regular tournament.
TJTay89 est déconnecté   Reply With Quote
Old Jan 15, 2008, 2:11am   #24
Lord Mushroom
The Dark Knight
 
Lord Mushroom's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Norway
Posts: 3,568
Reputation: 42
Lord Mushroom is on a distinguished road
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by moculon View Post
Any thoughts?
Just because he limped QQ and JJ doesn´t mean he limps pairs. It is more likely he limps great hands, say JJ+ and AK.

Given your (probably incorrect) read it is best to re-raise as you are likely to win if he calls and you also have fold equity.
__________________
(00:42-03:27)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TibA0sQQZw8

The bot has spoken.

Last edited by Lord Mushroom; Jan 15, 2008 at 3:06pm.
Lord Mushroom est déconnecté   Reply With Quote
Old Jan 15, 2008, 2:49am   #25
Lord Mushroom
The Dark Knight
 
Lord Mushroom's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Norway
Posts: 3,568
Reputation: 42
Lord Mushroom is on a distinguished road
Default

I advice you to re-read my posts in this thread until you get it, deuce65.

Quote:
Originally Posted by deuce65 View Post
Say you have something like AsKs and our opponent holds some sort of small\medium pocket pair. Now, this isn't a 55/45 situation for us, as we are actually a slight dog, but on the other hand, we never know exactly what are opponent holds anyway so I think it is a good example.
This is a horrible mixing of apples and oranges.

If you have AKs, it is seldom unprofitable to play it against a player who has small/medium pairs in his hand-range. The fact that the player actually has a small/medium pair is irrelevant as you don´t know that. All you know is an estimation of what hands he could have, and you estimate what your EV against that hand-range is. It is when the EV against the RANGE is marginal that folding in order to get better opportunities later should be considered.

In this case the EV is so big, that it is a no-brainer call (unless the situation is very unusual, like what TJTay89 describes).

Quote:
Now, wouldn't we prefer to play that hand against a poor player then a good one?
Yes, probably, but so what? What I am saying is that when the EV is marginal, a fold should be considered. Whether the player is poor or good is irrelevant (the skills of the players left in the tournament are not, though). The player being poor or good naturally affects EV, but when I speak of marginal +$EV situations, the situations ARE marginal. If we define a situation as marginal, it is marginal by definition. What the circumstances behind the marginal situation are (the skills of the players in the hand, the blinds, the stacks, the payouts, the hands, etc.) is irrelevant.

Quote:
"But you won´t (expect to) get it in a practically neutral $EV hand."

Again, not true at all.
Enlighten me as to how a neutral $EV hand can be +$EV.

Quote:
We aren't talking about pushing or anything, we are talking about playing cards.
But when we estimate a situation to be neutral $EV, we consider the ENTIRE HAND as being neutral $EV, not just the preflop decision.

Quote:
I don't see how we can not play anything but premium hands until the later rounds.
I have never said you can only play premium hands.

Quote:
No, my solution is to consider all my options, and in some cases, that includes taking a bit of a risk early on.
No, it is not. There are only 2 options:
1) Taking the +$EV move.
2) Not taking the +$EV move.

And you consider number 2 as always being incorrect, so you always go with number 1.

Quote:
Sometimes, taking a 55/45 is correct. And to say it is never correct is a leak, I think.
Fortunately, no one has claimed it was never correct to take these situations.
__________________
(00:42-03:27)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TibA0sQQZw8

The bot has spoken.
Lord Mushroom est déconnecté   Reply With Quote
Old Jan 15, 2008, 1:25pm   #26
deuce65
Brunson
 
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 221
Reputation: 10
deuce65 is on a distinguished road
Default

"I advice you to re-read my posts in this thread until you get it, deuce65."

As I said in the other thread, if I am misunderstanding what you are saying or misstating what I mean, then for that apologize. With that said though:

"Yes, probably, but so what? What I am saying is that when the EV is marginal, a fold should be considered. Whether the player is poor or good is irrelevant (the skills of the players left in the tournament are not, though). The player being poor or good naturally affects EV, but when I speak of marginal +$EV situations, the situations ARE marginal. If we define a situation as marginal, it is marginal by definition. What the circumstances behind the marginal situation are (the skills of the players in the hand, the blinds, the stacks, the payouts, the hands, etc.) is irrelevant."

With this I agree, if I am understanding you correctly. This is what I was getting at when I said that a situation is either +EV or is not. Where I think the confusion is coming from though is in the original post to which we are all replying, the poster was talking about a situation where he knows he is a 55/45 favorite. This to me implies that he is talking about a situation where he knows if they say, either check it down all the way to the river, or go all in, etc., he is 55 to win, and the opponent is 45. What *my* contention is, is that early on in a TM, even if you are only 55 to win if a hand goes to showdown, doesn't mean you shouldn't play, as if you are a strong player you can A. maximize your gains when you do win and B. Minimize your loses when you do lose C. have a much higher chance of winning.

"Enlighten me as to how a neutral $EV hand can be +$EV."

Well, you you quote only a small part of what I said. Again, this goes along with what I said above; at this point I am fairly sure we are both arguing the same point but using different words and so not understanding what each other is meaning.

"No, it is not. There are only 2 options:
1) Taking the +$EV move.
2) Not taking the +$EV move.

And you consider number 2 as always being incorrect, so you always go with number 1."

No, exactly the opposite. While it has seemed to me that you only consider 2 the correct option. I have stated over and over that I do not consider one option as always being the correct one; rather I think that both options should be considered. Now it is my turn to say "I advice you to re-read my posts in this thread until you get it"
deuce65 est déconnecté   Reply With Quote
Old Jan 15, 2008, 2:39pm   #27
Lord Mushroom
The Dark Knight
 
Lord Mushroom's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Norway
Posts: 3,568
Reputation: 42
Lord Mushroom is on a distinguished road
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by deuce65 View Post
What *my* contention is, is that early on in a TM, even if you are only 55 to win if a hand goes to showdown, doesn't mean you shouldn't play,
And my point is that if you are only 50,1% sure to win the hand, folding is probably better in terms of hourly rate.

Quote:
While it has seemed to me that you only consider 2 the correct option.
If I had done that, I would have folded every hand.

Quote:
I have stated over and over that I do not consider one option as always being the correct one;
Yes, but then you go ahead and say stuff like "we should take all +$EV moves because they are +$EV" (not actual quote). So do you accept now that it is sometimes better to turn down +$EV moves?
__________________
(00:42-03:27)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TibA0sQQZw8

The bot has spoken.
Lord Mushroom est déconnecté   Reply With Quote
Old Jan 15, 2008, 3:37pm   #28
deuce65
Brunson
 
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 221
Reputation: 10
deuce65 is on a distinguished road
Default

"And my point is that if you are only 50,1% sure to win the hand, folding is probably better in terms of hourly rate."

But the hand doesn't have to go to showdown. What part of this is so hard to understand? If I can make my opponent fold say, 30% of the time, then I am a lot more sure of winning that hand then 50.1 %. Even if I was only 50.1% to win pre.

"Yes, but then you go ahead and say stuff like "we should take all +$EV moves because they are +$EV" (not actual quote). So do you accept now that it is sometimes better to turn down +$EV moves?"

No, I never said that. Please show me where I said that? What I have said over and over and over again is that no, we shouldn't always play these sorts of hands, but that we should at least consider playing them some of the time if we think it is beneficial to do so. Again, what is so hard about this to understand? I realize you don't like to play this way, and that is fine. I actually like hearing from people who have differing opinions then my own, as it gives me a different perspective on the game and can perhaps improve my game. But then when I see you say stuff like "Yes, but then you go ahead and say stuff like "we should take all +$EV moves because they are +$EV"", when I have in fact said nothing of the sort, actually the exact opposite, it seems to me that you are looking for nothing more then a fight. And that is rather pointless, to me at least. At this point, I don't think it would be in any way constructive to continue this conversation, as you simply "make up" things I never said and then attribute them to me.
deuce65 est déconnecté   Reply With Quote
Old Jan 15, 2008, 3:49pm   #29
Lord Mushroom
The Dark Knight
 
Lord Mushroom's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Norway
Posts: 3,568
Reputation: 42
Lord Mushroom is on a distinguished road
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by deuce65 View Post
But the hand doesn't have to go to showdown. What part of this is so hard to understand? If I can make my opponent fold say, 30% of the time, then I am a lot more sure of winning that hand then 50.1 %. Even if I was only 50.1% to win pre.
Your opponent can make you fold say 30% of the time too.

Quote:
No, I never said that. Please show me where I said that? What I have said over and over and over again is that no, we shouldn't always play these sorts of hands, but that we should at least consider playing them some of the time if we think it is beneficial to do so. Again, what is so hard about this to understand? I realize you don't like to play this way, and that is fine. I actually like hearing from people who have differing opinions then my own, as it gives me a different perspective on the game and can perhaps improve my game. But then when I see you say stuff like "Yes, but then you go ahead and say stuff like "we should take all +$EV moves because they are +$EV"", when I have in fact said nothing of the sort, actually the exact opposite, it seems to me that you are looking for nothing more then a fight. And that is rather pointless, to me at least. At this point, I don't think it would be in any way constructive to continue this conversation, as you simply "make up" things I never said and then attribute them to me.
(00:00-00:04)
http://video.google.com/videoplay?do...arch&plindex=9

Quote:
Originally Posted by deuce65 View Post
A move is either +ev or is not. If it is, then it should be taken, if it isn't, then it shouldn't.
(post 15 in this thread)
__________________
(00:42-03:27)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TibA0sQQZw8

The bot has spoken.
Lord Mushroom est déconnecté   Reply With Quote
Old Jan 15, 2008, 4:05pm   #30
deuce65
Brunson
 
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 221
Reputation: 10
deuce65 is on a distinguished road
Default

"Your opponent can make you fold say 30% of the time too."

Well, if you feel unable to play to your opponent's standards then yes, folding is in order. In this case however, I suggest improving your game.

"(post 15 in this thread)"

Way to take something completely out of context, given that I have said about a dozen times that it depends entirely on the situation. But hey, why let a little thing like facts get in the way of your ego?
deuce65 est déconnecté   Reply With Quote
Reply

Bookmarks

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Forum Jump



All times are GMT. The time now is 9:03am. vBulletin 3.7.4 Copyright ©2000 - 2017, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.