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Old Feb 05, 2008, 1:09pm   #1
IronLen1972
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Default Rock - Bleeders or Accumulators?

This is a bit of an off track one dimensional question. I am hoping to get a bit of traffic on this one. Deals with the rocks I see at various levels on the table. In preface - I am trying to figure out if they are really, really slowly bleeding out, or making money.

Scenario as such is take a multi-table player who sits at 8 9h tables. I took a look over some average hand per hour numbers and I think it is relatively safe to say that with proper game selection the tables should average 63 hands per hour, per table (and also be conveniently divisible). At a given limit, like 0.50/1.00 you would be spending $10.50/hour in blinds, excluding anything voluntarily added. Standard fare.

Now what I was looking at was the different statistics in PokerTracker in conjunction with live stats fed to me by PokerAces HUD.

I made some general assumptions about ranges of hands based on the stats given. For this instance anyone with sub 8% VPIP and ignoring raise/aggression I figured these rocks were only playing hands like AA, KK, QQ, AK and occasional tier 2 hands from position. The higher the percentage, the wider the range obviously. I was uncertain as to whether the rock classification could include calling with pocket pairs for a blind to try and set mine as well. I think that might be a single level above in terms of tightness and would have a range of 13-15% ish. I digress.

So back tracking to point one about needing to bring in at least $10.50 per hour/table or $84/hour to keep ahead of the blinds. Across 8 tables I did some basic math and figured for 500 hands per hour (rough). Further this and you can estimate that you will get (statistically) tier one hands about 12 times per hour. Accepting the fact that big hands often dont see any action at all, and that even big hands dont win every time they see a flop...is it even possible to beat the blinds playing this style of play on a regular basis? Excluding the very micro limits where this might get by I can't see how this ultra tight style could prove profitable long term. What makes this worse is that anyone with a clue will pick up on the total inaction and give this style of play no action whatsoever. Yet I see these types of players in huge numbers (at least on stars).
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Last edited by IronLen1972; Feb 05, 2008 at 1:12pm.
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Old Feb 05, 2008, 3:44pm   #2
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A player like you describe needs to win a 100 BB stack from someone about 1.5 times an hour to be a 2-3 PTBB/100 winner. They should get AA or KK about 4-5 times and flop a set 3-4 times in that hour on 8 tables. So in balance they need to get paid off about 1:6 times that they have a huge hand. This is closer to 1:4 if we account for suckouts, assuming they usually get it in as a 70+% favorite.

Getting an all-in call on 1:4 hands with a VPIP of ~10% requires extreme attention to table selection, which is obviously easier at low buy-ins. Nit play is all about table selection.
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Old Feb 06, 2008, 2:47am   #3
IronLen1972
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I subtracted sets out of the equation for the little pairs, etc. Just playing essentially 4 hands + some strong hands unraised from the button. but otherwise total foldbots. I think that even with table selection and whatnot that it is statistically impossible over a large sample to play this style profitably. I can't prove it yet though. I just feel that all these rocks playing 5-8% of the hands they get are all losing money. Just really, really slowly.
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