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Old Feb 26, 2008, 2:24am   #21
chefski
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Let me clear on my intentions...

First off, I do not think PS is rigged in any way...per se. Second, I am just pointing out the discrepancies and talking it through to come about some answers. Third, this is more of an inquiry as to what they can and cannot 'tag' or identify with your machines.

I find the results quite odd and am scratching my head. But the actual play is just so different, I am at a complete loss as to what to grasp at. And, BTW, I do not drink and play poker at home.

And Wax, before we get in to a pissing match, I was not the first to start slinging the mud. If you want to have some fun settling things, you pick a date/time for us both to enter a 9 person SnG between $20 - $50 and the last guy standing pays the other's entry fee. Let all the other PTers watch along. Be happy to throw that out as a challenge to ya'...
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Old Feb 26, 2008, 6:18am   #22
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And this from a guy who has played a total of 15 tourneys on Stars with his biggest cash of $3.56...?
Ya, I dumped 100 bucks on stars just to piss around with, not that this is even relevant at all. I'm not using my stats to make any claims. You are. Therefore, your sample size has to be relevent. It is NOT, as I have already discussed.

I never claimed to be great at poker (although I'm probably a fair margin above average), or a high roller. What I do claim is that I have a higher understanding of maths than you could probably ever have. This comes from just my general mathematical coursework and logical thinking skills (something you lack to a very large degree). This is not me being cocky (maybe it is a little bit), I'm just saying you paranoid and don't have a clue about math if you think that running a bit below expectation over less than 114 tournaments can be used as decisive evidence that stars is rigged somehow.
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Old Feb 26, 2008, 6:20am   #23
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I assume they can and do tag your machine, perhaps in addition to logging your IP. I don't think this has any influence on the RNG.
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Old Feb 26, 2008, 7:22am   #24
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Let me clear on my intentions...

First off, I do not think PS is rigged in any way...per se. Second, I am just pointing out the discrepancies and talking it through to come about some answers. Third, this is more of an inquiry as to what they can and cannot 'tag' or identify with your machines.

I find the results quite odd and am scratching my head. But the actual play is just so different, I am at a complete loss as to what to grasp at. And, BTW, I do not drink and play poker at home.

And Wax, before we get in to a pissing match, I was not the first to start slinging the mud. If you want to have some fun settling things, you pick a date/time for us both to enter a 9 person SnG between $20 - $50 and the last guy standing pays the other's entry fee. Let all the other PTers watch along. Be happy to throw that out as a challenge to ya'...
Just to try to eliminate another possibility, do you drink when you play away from home on your laptop? Some people play better when they have had a couple you know.
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Old Feb 26, 2008, 4:11pm   #25
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No, no significant differences personally away vs. home other than a bit less distractions when away...and maybe just a freedom of sorts. And yes, Wax, the sample is NOT big enough draw mathematical conclusions...but that is not what I am after. In reality, no sample sizes of ANY of us is truly big enough draw definitive enough conclusions or hard-line variance numbers to work out. As the Card Player article indicated long ago, we'd all need to play millions of hands individually for "math" to work it out...1000's of hands does not even make the cut.

All that aside, anecdotally there is something there...I feel it and know it. In a week I will be in a different location for some time and time will tell what this brings.

More to come...
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Old Feb 26, 2008, 9:53pm   #26
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All that aside, anecdotally there is something there...I feel it and know it. In a week I will be in a different location for some time and time will tell what this brings.

More to come...
Funny you should mention that. Did you know that subliminal message tapes to help you lose weight actually work? They don't, but when people listen to them they still lose weight. Termed the placebo affect.

There is also an effect called confirmation bias. It is when people pay attention/remember things better that go with their beliefs. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confirmation_bias

We run into this all the time in psychological research. It is in our nature to search out information that supports what we believe and to ignore other information.

I'd venture a guess as to that being the reason for your "I suffer so much worse beats at home than away." You think you do, therefore when one happens you are like OMFG NOT AGAIN! You probably don't even recognize when your good hands hold up.

I'm not saying there is no difference, I'm saying the difference is likely not that you suffer worse beats. If it is, than your sample is small and over time if your play is the same on both than they will even out.

Probably more likely though, is that your play is not the same. You are likely less distracted, or more relaxed, or perhaps playing scared at home anticipating your bad beats to come. If I were you I'd either spend some time gathering data to compare or let it go.

Also http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neglect_of_probability for:
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Fuck variance, luck, or any other random stat you want to throw out there
There is no middle ground to the bad beats. Either the RNG is rigged, or it isn't. If it isn't, you are either experience variance or there are other factors. Don't ignore the stats because you "feel" something.

Or put up cameras, because Lee Jones is probably sleeping with your wife.
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Old Feb 26, 2008, 11:11pm   #27
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I clearly understand variance and runs. But this is just weird, and has been going on for two years, not just a small sample.
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without a doubt you that there is a problem with whatever info/method (or tagging) is being obtained from my home computer
Quote:
First off, I do not think PS is rigged in any way...per se
Quote:
There is just no possible way that I can suffer the level of come-from-behind plays that I am experiencing. It is consistent, relentless, and statistically impossible. Fuck variance, luck, or any other random stat you want to throw out there, it just cannot happen with the regularity I am seeing and the gap is too wide.
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the sample is NOT big enough draw mathematical conclusions...but that is not what I am after
Oh, ok.
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Old Feb 27, 2008, 3:39am   #28
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Oh, ok.
On a side note, I absolutely love that green text. I never noticed it before, but my eyes just kinda draw to that color.
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Old Feb 27, 2008, 4:07pm   #29
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Originally Posted by kmay06 View Post
Funny you should mention that. Did you know that subliminal message tapes to help you lose weight actually work? They don't, but when people listen to them they still lose weight. Termed the placebo affect.

There is also an effect called confirmation bias. It is when people pay attention/remember things better that go with their beliefs. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confirmation_bias

We run into this all the time in psychological research. It is in our nature to search out information that supports what we believe and to ignore other information.

I'd venture a guess as to that being the reason for your "I suffer so much worse beats at home than away." You think you do, therefore when one happens you are like OMFG NOT AGAIN! You probably don't even recognize when your good hands hold up.

I'm not saying there is no difference, I'm saying the difference is likely not that you suffer worse beats. If it is, than your sample is small and over time if your play is the same on both than they will even out.

Probably more likely though, is that your play is not the same. You are likely less distracted, or more relaxed, or perhaps playing scared at home anticipating your bad beats to come. If I were you I'd either spend some time gathering data to compare or let it go.

Also http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neglect_of_probability for:


There is no middle ground to the bad beats. Either the RNG is rigged, or it isn't. If it isn't, you are either experience variance or there are other factors. Don't ignore the stats because you "feel" something.

See, now THIS kind of shit makes sense to me and in my mind is more legitimate than trying to study the math of it like Wax likes to present. Stats are important and I've reviewed this past Sunday...just an anomaly I guess. The numbers will NOT even out, and yes, samples are too small even over the course of two years. But aces getting cracked 4 times in a row as an 80%+ favorite...? Then throw two more 90% leads on top of that getting caught all in row at the worst possible times...makes you wonder if not straight to the 'funny farm'. You do grasp at straws here...

Good stuff though.

Kind of like the "Secret" where you tell the universe what you want to bring in. I have to admit, days like this past Sunday where it is one bad one after another, you almost get to a point where you expect it and call out the card before it comes...then WHAM! Lately, at critical times, I have to look away or minimize the screen 'cus I can't bare to view it. Also, when you start to see the day trend that way, you just have to stop and let it go for the day sometimes and come back tomorrow.

Thanks for all the input...I know it was a bit of rant on my part, but just hard to take when you have 5-6 tourneys in a row during the day that deal you such brutal blows at the worst times...1, 2, 3, whatever...but 4, 5 & 6 and you begin to go nuts. And when your 80% leads are not holding up over and over, you feel pretty helpless and not too keen on "numbers".
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Old Feb 27, 2008, 11:12pm   #30
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On a side note, I absolutely love that green text. I never noticed it before, but my eyes just kinda draw to that color.
I find the colour red to be a little scary. It seems to jump 2 millimeters or so out of the screen, like it is in 3D (not joke).
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