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Old Feb 27, 2008, 4:22am   #1
Timbilo
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Default 50NL Six Max- Bottom set semi-deepish value bet river & how much?

Ultimate Bet No-Limit Hold'em, $.50 BB (6 handed) Hand History converter Courtesy of PokerZion.com
UTG ($50)
MP ($149.95)
CO ($11.60)
Hero ($67.50)
SB ($79.35)
BB ($39.65)
Preflop: Hero is Button with , .
UTG calls $0.50, 1 fold, CO calls $0.50, Hero calls $0.50, SB completes, BB checks.
Flop: ($2.50) , , (5 players)
UTG checks, BB checks, UTG checks, CO checks, Hero bets $2.65, SB calls $2.65, BB folds, UTG folds, CO folds.
Turn: ($7.80) (2 players)
Hero bets $7.8, SB calls $7.80.
River: ($23.40) (2 players)
SB bets $17, Hero ???

Reads:

Table Specific Read: The CO loves to limp/call any raise/check-raise with any pair on the flop with his/her extreme shortstack. Since any pair the CO picks up beats my pair, I elect to overlimp the button and play for set odds

SB- No reads, but I have datamined PAHUD numbers over 130ish hands of 26/5.3/1.63 with a 20% Went to showdown and a 62% Won at showdown.

Main Question: SB calls a slightly larger than pot-size bet on the flop, a pot-sized bet on the turn, and then leads out 3/4th pot on the river. River options include smooth call/do some sort of value min-raise/shove. Who does what?

Keep in mind too that effective stacks are $67. Pot is now $40.40 after his $17, and villian has an effective stack of $39.55 remaining.

Last edited by Timbilo; Feb 27, 2008 at 3:29pm.
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Old Feb 27, 2008, 4:43am   #2
kmay06
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I think I just call. I wouldn't be surprised to have him flip 6Ts or something and he just got lucky. He's in the small blind so that could certainly be in his range. I can't see him doing this with much that he'd call a value raise with something we beat.
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Old Feb 27, 2008, 4:48am   #3
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Id pay 20$ just to bitch slap you Kmay
Im pushing 101% for value here
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Old Feb 27, 2008, 4:59am   #4
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From a break-even 50NL player: ditto Gus...my guess is something like Xh6h, or a totally busted FD and he has you on TPTK and sees a bluff opportunity. Seems like you'll be ahead more often than behind.

Edit--PS, I'm tired of sucking at this game, and just reading posts in the forums isn't helping me, so I'm going to start posting to either confirm what I think I know or get feedback on what I've deluded myself on. If that's bad form on this forum let me know and I'll go back to reading. Thanks.

Last edited by TallJohn; Feb 27, 2008 at 5:03am.
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Old Feb 27, 2008, 5:01am   #5
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Originally Posted by Gus View Post
Id pay 20$ just to bitch slap you Kmay
Im pushing 101% for value here
Lol, take a ticket please and wait in line.

What do you think he is calling with that you beat? Unless he is a total donk I can't see him calling calling two pot sized bets with just a 6. The only hand would be 6x of hearts (that I can think of).
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Old Feb 27, 2008, 5:42am   #6
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Push FTW. Seriously, if you have no absolute read, I'm pushing here 100% of the time. I think it's Ah6h ftw.
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Old Feb 27, 2008, 7:51am   #7
kmay06
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Originally Posted by KHSPoker21 View Post
Push FTW. Seriously, if you have no absolute read, I'm pushing here 100% of the time. I think it's Ah6h ftw.

Well, it appears I am mistaken then. Though Is till don't understand why we are shoving with only one hand calling us that we beat :-/
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Old Feb 27, 2008, 12:57pm   #8
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puuuuuuuuuuuuush

btw. post the conclusion plz
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Old Feb 27, 2008, 1:53pm   #9
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First of all i would raise this preflop to 3$.

After potting Flop and Turn and limping on the button, he must have you on a set or a combo draw.

You wouldn't limp T6o, T2o or 62o. An overpair would have raised preflop (if you had raised preflop, you can look like JJ+).

So what are your limp preflop Button and overbet Flop range? It would be littel PP, suited connectors or suited Aces.

I don't think, that you donk into 4 opponents, so I think villian knows this too. Betting this flop leaves the range above.

Also betting turn makes sense with this range, even you maybe checked behind with the combo draw.

Now the board pairs and SB donks into you. With his low VPIP values I can't see him calling a PSB twice with only a flushdraw. So he has a better hand.

I think his range is almoust identicaly with yours.

So a better set or a busted combo-Flushdraw.

I think even a lonely 6 maybe folds to push here. But if not, he calls 100% with TT and 66, maybe 90% with a lone 6.

I can't see him calling other Hands that makes sense. So how possible is it, that he has one of these hands?

Pot is 40.40$ giving you 17$/40.40$ = 42%.

If you push, your EV is

(P_f=villian folds)* 29.45$+(P_cl=villian calls and lose)*69$+(P_cw=Villian calls and wins)*(-67.50)=EV.

If villian calls, he has TT, 66 or 6x. I assume, he has 40% 6x and 60% TT or 66, which is very hopefull, I think.

If P denotes the probability that villain calls, the EV=0 leads to the equation

(1-P)* 29.45$+(P*0.5)*69$+(P*0.5)*(-67.50)=EV=0.

Solving this eqaution with respect to P leads to P=69.5%.

So if you think villian has 30% of the time a weaker hand or a bluff, than a push is +EV. But I don't think with these stats that this is the case.

I think he has really 66.
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Old Feb 27, 2008, 2:19pm   #10
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Nice post CMBurns. Just one thing to add: The decision is Push or Call not Push or Fold. So the chances of Villain bluffing is not important here. Even if the Push is +EV Calling maybe a bigger +EV and therefor the right move.

So You have to figure out the times Your push makes Villain lay down a better hand (0 in this case I think), the times You get called and win and the time You get called and loose.

In this case You will not get him lay down a better hand so Pushing is right if Villain calls You with hands that include a chance of more than 50% that Hero wins. Otherwise calling is the right option here.

So in this case I dont see this happen so I would call here also and be prepared to loose against a better full or even quads more often than to win against a weaker hand like trip 6s...
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