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Old Feb 27, 2008, 1:38pm   #11
CMBurns
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Originally Posted by Gerrit2002 View Post
The decision is Push or Call not Push or Fold. So the chances of Villain bluffing is not important here.
Thats right. I mean that villans bet of 17$ is a bluff (he can't know, that hero is strong). So Bluff=Fold to push.

But beside that I was afraid, how obvious heros hand in this spot is, if we take the time and think about it.
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Old Feb 27, 2008, 1:42pm   #12
Gerrit2002
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Yeah but it is not important if there is a chance that Villain is bluffing cause we will win the same amount with Calling and Pushing then anyway. So in our decision making wether to Call or to Push the chance of him Bluffing doesnt change anything...
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Old Feb 27, 2008, 1:49pm   #13
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Seems to be pretty much split down the middle so far. I'll post the result in a few hours after some more people have a chance to comment.
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Old Feb 27, 2008, 1:59pm   #14
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BTW: I could also imagine Villain having in addition to the + another heart hands... anyway I am not seeing him here calling more than 50% with hands that we have beat...
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Old Feb 27, 2008, 2:08pm   #15
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This isnt deep. Insta shove in, anyone who disagrees is a nit.
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Old Feb 27, 2008, 2:27pm   #16
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I really don't see what the problem is here.

Firstly, villain completed from SB.

Secondly, I would not pay that much attention to the WSD% and W$SD. It's only 130ish hands. Any numbers below 500-1,000 hands are not reliable when it comes to WSD% and W$SD. Just because he has a low WSD% and high W$SD doesn't mean that he's not capable of calling with a worse hand, eg. 3h 5h, any 6xh combo
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Old Feb 27, 2008, 2:50pm   #17
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Please don't ever use the term "bottom set" again.
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Old Feb 27, 2008, 4:04pm   #18
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The weakest of all sets

Seriously, Theres an epidemy of overthinking here.

' I dont see what he calls with that we beat' = We have a FH, with both hole cards. No need to think about that, 99% of the time.

' We bet into 4 people, so our hand is fairly transparent to a 25/6 50NL unknown player' hmmm no ?

I think some people here got a simple principe completly wrong: Unknown player is mediocre/bad player untill proven otherwise, not a world cashgame champion thinking on 4 differents levels at all time, almost seeing trhough your cards and capable of guessing your hand to the suits of both cards, folding trips on the river for a raise.

There arent a lot of things that still make me laugh while playing poker. Smooth calling the bet there would be one, along with checking in position 3 times with a straight. Calling is a very gross and obvious error, I dont even comprehend how theres a discussion about it.
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Old Feb 27, 2008, 4:10pm   #19
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Calling is a very gross and obvious error, I dont even comprehend how theres a discussion about it.
Show me all hands the bad player will play this way which we have beat. And then calculate please why pushing is so much more +EV than calling. THX!
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Old Feb 27, 2008, 4:30pm   #20
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The results:

I shoved, the way-too-perceptive 50NL villian thought for his timebank and folded, saying "well you either have deuces full or a bluff"

We got to discussing the hand later on in the session and he told me he had a pair of sixes on the flop, picked up a gutshot on the turn (making his hand 6/3 or 6/5), and then tripped up on the river. Villian also mentioned he probably would have called a smaller bet on the river rather than a PSB.

Who knows if he told the truth about his hand, but he didn't have any reason to lie about it so far after the fact so I believe him.

Didn't think much about the hand until I was out walking the dog and got to thinking "what exactly was I expecting he would call with I beat?" Came up with 53, A6, K6, Q6, J6, 96, 86, 76, 65, 63 (largly those with 2 hearts). Hands beating me are TT, 66, T6, 64, 44, and 62. Pushing seems like the right play, but thought I'd get a second opinion.

I was also struck by how much thought the average 50NL joe put into his hand analysis. Scary.

Last edited by Timbilo; Feb 27, 2008 at 4:49pm.
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