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Old Mar 07, 2008, 2:30am   #1
KS_Perfection
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Default I make Good Read

OnGame Skin, $20/$40 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

BTN: $1,302.40
SB: $2,237
BB: $4,124.80
Hero (UTG): $2,667.10
CO: $2,339

SB posts $10
Pre-Flop: A K dealt to Hero (UTG)
Hero raises to $70, 2 folds, SB calls $60, BB calls $50

Flop: ($210) Q 6 3 (3 Players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero checks

Turn: ($210) 4 (3 Players)
SB bets $160, BB folds, Hero calls $160

River: ($530) 6 (2 Players)
SB bets $400, Hero calls $400

Results: $1,330 Pot ($3 Rake)
SB showed A J and LOST (-$630 NET)
Hero showed A K and WON $1,327 (+$697 NET)

This might look like a brag, which it is. But it also has good strategy lesson. Just because I definied my hand on the turn as marginal at best (likely mid pair in his mind) isn't terrible like some think. Cause I know that he knows Im weak, so he's more likely try to bluff me and I know this. So it comes down to do I think he's bluffing or value betting.

If your making good reads you can play more passively, or in many different creative and strange ways. Whereas if you aren't its best to stick to basic aggression and ABC technical poker. I know I try to do that for myself.

Last edited by KS_Perfection; Mar 07, 2008 at 2:52am.
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Old Mar 07, 2008, 9:16am   #2
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Good read.

Obviously this is way above me so I have a question: If you're going to call an almost PSB on the river (which you did) then why wouldn't you raise the turn? If you're sure he's whiffed both streets then raising could take the pot down there and then. If he calls and leads out the river, or re-raises the turn, then you get away for less than your $400.

As it is you rely on him beaing weaker than you when he may actually have a marginal hand that beats you but you which could fold out with turn aggression. In retrospect he's not folding the nut flush draw to a turn raise but there are plenty of holdings he might lay down.
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Old Mar 07, 2008, 12:16pm   #3
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Well I wasn't defniitly planning to call a river bet, I was going to call turn and reevaluate. the biggest problem with raising is it really kills my pot odds, instead of getting 2-1 I get 2-3, for the turn raise. In raising the turn or calling the river I both put the same amount only I stand to win 400 more, nearly 50% more on teh hand. I think this way is more profitable than the other. Plus your assuming my read wouldn't have been different if he had something poor.

The added bonus to raising turn would be if I fold a Q that would bet river too, but I don't know if that would happen given the line. What excatly am I representing? Im not gonig to check AA on this flop, maybe QQ, 44 or some combo of small cards. Not too many hands that Im likely to raise preflop with. A riase looks very suspicious, He might have shoved with his hand which would have really sucked.
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Old Mar 07, 2008, 12:53pm   #4
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OK, that makes sense. I understand that him shoving the turn is bad but my point is this:

If your read is more or less accurate but he is just weak rather than holding complete air then you're calling with a hand that you don't want to show down. My comment regarding the turn raise is that you possibly fold out a marginally better hand while getting better information from him if he re-raises. As it is you don't know if he's value-betting or bluffing the river.

If you bumped the turn to $450 then his subsequent action gives you a better route forward, although I appreciate it's hard to rep any hand that wouldn't have bet the flop.
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Old Mar 07, 2008, 1:27pm   #5
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Nice call.

One thing confuses me though. You said, you made a good "read". What was the read? You made a decision. I get that. A decision based on the fact that he has a chance to be bluffing with a flush draw. The betting pattern hints at that. OK. But, was there an actual read involved? Did you know something about this player? Was there something that said that this guy was more likely to be bluffing the river than an ordinary Joe in that spot?

Did you consider that he may be "bluffing" but still have a better hand then you? Something like middle pair or a flush draw with a lower pair?

I get what you are saying about the turn call. Your call manipulates the odds on the river. You are inducing enough bluffs that the river call might be profitable (don't know the exact situation but I get it). You are basically manipulating the odds. I like to call it "changing the future". But I still don't understand what you "read"

Good post. Thanks.
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Old Mar 07, 2008, 1:39pm   #6
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I just felt that he was weak. Im sure subconsciously their was some rationale to make he feel this way, but nothing blanatly obvious like bet size or anything. He's a decent player that I played a fair bit, mostly at NL1K.
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Old Mar 07, 2008, 6:35pm   #7
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One thing to consider, his bet size is too big for a Q. Usually. But it's really a feel thing.
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Old Mar 07, 2008, 6:36pm   #8
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NH.

This really belongs in poker stories though, because there's no strategic content since your reason for calling seems to be a history/read/intuition about the player that you can't really quantify (which I totally understand) and you definitely can't express to us. I guess the lesson is... don't try to bluff a soul-reader like you?

EDIT - I think Bubbleboy is right about it not being a queen. My only concern is that you don't beat some hands that are 'bluffing' the river, and you beat mostly AJ/AT/FD/air. Almost a spot where you'd want to raise, but that's pretty crazy for a lifenit like me.
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Oh, and obviously, TWLLM, we'd all rather you just ruled with an iron fist of nittiness and made all decisions without consultation, but that goes without saying, right?
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Old Mar 07, 2008, 7:32pm   #9
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It does have some strategic value, as people discussed raising it on turn or river. I didn't bring any value to it, but others found some. Even you can't resist chimming on how I misplayed it.
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Old Mar 07, 2008, 10:46pm   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by KS_Perfection View Post
It does have some strategic value, as people discussed raising it on turn or river. I didn't bring any value to it, but others found some. Even you can't resist chimming on how I misplayed it.
I actually don't think you misplayed it, I'm unsure what the right play is. And how can I know - if there's one consistent theme in this thread it's that no one can say after the fact whether this was a good play or not because we don't know the reasoning and it was completely a 'feel' hand.

I just think there is much 'strategy' to the hand because it is so unique.

I suppose you're right that other people brought strategy into it (we're trying to figure out your reasoning after all) but if we distinguished posts based on what other people end up posting afterwards, it'd be pretty random.
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Oh, and obviously, TWLLM, we'd all rather you just ruled with an iron fist of nittiness and made all decisions without consultation, but that goes without saying, right?
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