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Old May 01, 2008, 10:47pm   #1
cpsof95
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Default Struggling at NL200

Desperate situation calls for desperate actions, so here I am. A while ago I moved up to NL200 after playing 30000 hands in NL100 with 7.30 PTBB/100. So far it's been a nightmare. After 15000 hands I'm down almost 10 buy-ins, and there seems to be no way up.

I've been stacked several times holding a monster when the villain has the nuts. Most good players seem to play something like 18/12/3, so I can easily steal blinds and win small pots, but eventually I get crushed when they really hit something (and I only have bottom set, two pair etc.).

I could go on and on listing all the bad beats I've had, but even though luck plays a big role in poker, I don't want to try to explain my bad results with bad luck, because if I give myself a permission to lose, then I'm not going to win ever again.

Anyway, here's a detailed view of my performance so far:
http://users.tkk.fi/mluttine/NL200_14802.pdf

Here are some of the key figures:
VPIP/PFR/AF: 24/17/2.35
Attempt to steal blinds 32%
Folded SB/BB to steal: 84% / 76%
Went to showdown: 29%
Won at showdown: 54%
C-bet frequency: 57%
Folded to river bet: 59%

Any comments are warmly welcome.
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Old May 01, 2008, 11:02pm   #2
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It would seem that your Went to showdown% is high and your Call River bet % as well. You are going to SD almost 30% of the time you see a flop. You have roughly the same % to even hit anything on the flop so I would think that is a leak. Looks like you are being taken to valuetown quite frequently.
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Old May 01, 2008, 11:14pm   #3
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I am not going to comment on your stats as I think both of your samples are pretty small. Is this full ring? How many tables are you playing?

IMO, you should move back down.

My limited experience in moving up is that as the agression rises you tend to make bad calls....essentially getting committed to hands too easily. Its hard to credit these guys sometimes. Add in a little variance and you have a downswing.

Good luck in the future.
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Old May 01, 2008, 11:22pm   #4
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Looks like you're a bit of a P.O.W. Pay Off Wizard. I agree with Grisu that you're being taken to value town a bit too much. 58% fold to river bet is a bit on the low end. Granted 15k is a relatively small sample but try to tighten up and be in situations where you're not calling it down.
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Old May 01, 2008, 11:25pm   #5
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Sorry, it's 6-max.

So both of you suggest that I should tighten up post-flop? But that would mean that villains get wonderful odds pushing me out of hands. We don't want that to happen, do we?

On the other hand, the cases where a big river bet by a strong player has been a bluff have been extremely rare (can't remember any right now)...
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Old May 02, 2008, 12:02am   #6
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I think you moved up too quickly. But yeah you are a bit of a POW. I would recommend reducing the amount of tables you are playing or drop down a level. How many tables are you playing at $200NL at one time?
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Old May 02, 2008, 12:40am   #7
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I play four tables.

NL100 was so darn easy (even easier than NL50!), but it seems that NL200 is a LOT harder. Some players who I considered to be pretty good players at NL100, are now players that I actually want to see in NL200.

I decided to move up pretty quickly, because I don't have any bankroll issues, and I want to improve my game. Playing with fish doesn't teach much, I want to set my goals higher, because I think I have all the required abilities to play with pretty high stakes.

As being a POW, I've had 11 hands out of 14802 where I've lost at least a full buy-in. At least half a buy-in I've lost in 35 more hands. Is this too much?

A description of those 11 disaster hands:
1) I had AA against a monster draw. As I was very sure he was on a draw, I decided to push, he called, gg.
2) I had TT on AK6T4 board. Pre-flop action suggested he might have 66 or 44, and was happily pushing my chips in. He had called my pre-flop raise OOP with QJo...
3) One of those hands where I couldn't let AA go, bad play there.
4) A very good player called my pre-flop reraise with 85s. I had AK, and tried to show some weakness on an ace high board to encourage him to bluff me. He made a big bet on the river, after he had hit his gutshot straight.
5) I had TT on a JT3 flop and slowplayed it. Turn and river gave 2 and 2, and I got stacked against 22.
6) I had KQ on a KQT multiway flop with a flush draw. I pushed my chips in, hoping to get called with all kinds of draws, but one guy had AJ.
7) I had AJ on SB in a limped 3-way pot. I check-call J6Q flop. Turn and river bring AA giving me a fullhouse. The other guy had AQ and I got stacked.
8) I had AA, villain goes all-in pre-flop with QQ and gets his Q on turn.
9) I have QQ against a calling station. He called my bet with AK on flop after hitting nothing. I push my remaining chips in hoping to get called with all sorts of junk. I do get called with his AK, as he got flush draw on the turn, and he hits his ace.
10) I flop a flush, villain has a nut flush draw, pushes it and wins.
11) Well, I'm too ashamed to say what happened here...

By the way, the 24 biggest net wins in a hand have been $193 in average, while the average loss in the 24 biggest pots is $205. But going further down the list, I win bigger pots than I lose. So the leak has to be somewhere in the small and medium-sized pots.
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Old May 02, 2008, 12:52am   #8
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Oh okay 4 tables is fine. You are not jamming like 10 on there. Try putting your HH's into a Skalansky Buck's Calculator. I think you may be getting outplayed in pots that do not go to showdown based on your stats and this graph may help us find out. But again your sample size is small and it is possible for a marginal-decent winner to have a downswing that lasts this many hands.
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Old May 02, 2008, 1:21am   #9
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Okay, I downloaded PokerEV, and it would take some time to learn how it works, but I managed to make a familiar-looking graph. What does it tell?

http://users.tkk.fi/mluttine/NL200_Sklansky.png
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Old May 02, 2008, 1:26am   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cpsof95 View Post
Okay, I downloaded PokerEV, and it would take some time to learn how it works, but I managed to make a familiar-looking graph. What does it tell?

http://users.tkk.fi/mluttine/NL200_Sklansky.png
It means that you are down 4k in pots that do not go to showdown. That means there are some serious leaks. You did run a bit below EV though. Running 20 buy-ins down in non showdown pots over 14k hands is extremely alarming.
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