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Old May 02, 2008, 3:12am   #21
cpsof95
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Here are the equities on each street from PokerEV. This is for NL200.

http://users.tkk.fi/mluttine/NL200_Streets.png

In the pre-flop I've put $7000 in with an expected return of $8000, is that correct? On the flop, I'm also putting money in when I'm ahead. And on the turn I'm crushing the villains (only $7500 in with almost $10000 return). On the river I'm about equal money, so betting or calling on the river is about even money for me. Am I getting this right?

Does that also mean that I'm laying down too many winners on the turn, or that I'm not betting the turn when I'm leading and should get some value and protect my hand? I think I'm too passive on the turn and river, and just checking down when I'm in the lead as I'm afraid of getting bluffed with a raise. This would also explain the high profit in the showdown winnings.
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Old May 02, 2008, 3:13am   #22
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The poker book I want to read, but hasn't been written, would be the "Book of Leaks", in which data sets like the one by the OP are analyzed in detail by someone really good. Complete with sections on "types of leaks" and lots of individual hands for illustration. The sample sizes would have to be larger though.
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Old May 02, 2008, 3:19am   #23
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cpsof95 View Post
Here are the equities on each street from PokerEV. This is for NL200.

http://users.tkk.fi/mluttine/NL200_Streets.png

In the pre-flop I've put $7000 in with an expected return of $8000, is that correct? On the flop, I'm also putting money in when I'm ahead. And on the turn I'm crushing the villains (only $7500 in with almost $10000 return). On the river I'm about equal money, so betting or calling on the river is about even money for me. Am I getting this right?

Does that also mean that I'm laying down too many winners on the turn, or that I'm not betting the turn when I'm leading and should get some value and protect my hand? I think I'm too passive on the turn and river, and just checking down when I'm in the lead as I'm afraid of getting bluffed with a raise. This would also explain the high profit in the showdown winnings.
Your graphs show the difference in quality of players from $100NL to $200NL. It is quite a difference and I think you have had trouble adjusting to it. You are having a lot more money taken from you as opposed to you taking it from them. That graph you just posted really does little for me. Yeah your AF's drop significantly in the later streets. Meaning that you are missing a lot of pots that are easy to pick up on the turn and I think you are letting draws come at you for one bet instead of two. I would also guess from this that you are getting especially killed OOP.
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Last edited by Ishbu3116; May 02, 2008 at 3:33am.
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Old May 02, 2008, 3:43am   #24
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So what I should do is...

1) Bet more 2nd barrels with all sorts of hands (made hands, draws or even air if the board texture looks good). In small stakes, there wasn't any point trying to bluff the calling station, but things are different now, right?

2) Keep betting on drawy boards with weaker hands to protect the hand against draws and thus either get the pot down immediately or get some value from the draw.

I guess I've been watching too much HSP as I may be checking a set on the turn although there are some draws on the board to make my opponent think I have absolutely nothing and induce him to make a big bluff on the river (which they rarely do, because they have marginal hands hoping to get a cheap showdown).

I thought that having a high win% in showdowns would be a good thing to have, but I guess it's quite the opposite actually. You should be the aggressor yourself which means that your opponent usually has to have better hands than you do, so losing most of the showdowns is a natural consequence of this.

Why do you think I'm getting killed OOP? Usually I hold premium hands when I'm OOP. From the blinds I might call with AQ, pocket pairs etc. hoping to hit something, but if I don't hit I just give up the hand.

By the way, here are my VPIP/PFR figures from each position.
Button 28/25
1 OTB 23/21
2 OTB 21/19
3 OTB 13/13
BB 18/9
SB 34/13 (I often try to steal the BB against a tight villain if it's folded around)
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Old May 02, 2008, 3:53am   #25
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cpsof95 View Post
So what I should do is...

1) Bet more 2nd barrels with all sorts of hands (made hands, draws or even air if the board texture looks good). In small stakes, there wasn't any point trying to bluff the calling station, but things are different now, right?

2) Keep betting on drawy boards with weaker hands to protect the hand against draws and thus either get the pot down immediately or get some value from the draw.

I guess I've been watching too much HSP as I may be checking a set on the turn although there are some draws on the board to make my opponent think I have absolutely nothing and induce him to make a big bluff on the river (which they rarely do, because they have marginal hands hoping to get a cheap showdown).

I thought that having a high win% in showdowns would be a good thing to have, but I guess it's quite the opposite actually. You should be the aggressor yourself which means that your opponent usually has to have better hands than you do, so losing most of the showdowns is a natural consequence of this.

Why do you think I'm getting killed OOP? Usually I hold premium hands when I'm OOP. From the blinds I might call with AQ, pocket pairs etc. hoping to hit something, but if I don't hit I just give up the hand.

By the way, here are my VPIP/PFR figures from each position.
Button 28/25
1 OTB 23/21
2 OTB 21/19
3 OTB 13/13
BB 18/9
SB 34/13 (I often try to steal the BB against a tight villain if it's folded around)
Stop completing from the SB. That's waaaaaaaaaaay too high
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Old May 02, 2008, 3:57am   #26
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Most players who are not doing well in non showdown hands normally play very poorly OOP. My guess is that the good opponents have figured out that two barreling works a lot against you. That and I think a check from you means that you are giving up on a hand a lot of the time. So you make yourself very floatable because it seems like you like to show some speed on the flop and slow down on the turn and then fold to a bet.

As it relates to two barreling more I would recommend doing so. But that does not mean two barrel all the time. And yes bet a lot more on drawy boards, with a big bet you can fold out draws and you can fold out weak pairs that are trying to see what you do on the turn. And eventually once your opponents figure out you are being more aggressive learn to use it to value bet much more.
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Old May 02, 2008, 3:57am   #27
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Quote:
Originally Posted by KHSPoker21 View Post
Stop completing from the SB. That's waaaaaaaaaaay too high
Yeah I agree here as well. I normally raise or fold my SB. But I do mix in a few calls here and there to mix things up.
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Old May 02, 2008, 4:31am   #28
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Ok, I must increase my aggression then.

Bluffing wasn't an option in NL50 and not even NL100, but I guess it's something that has to be done in NL200 to survive.

I guess what happened was that, I was shocked by the level of aggression in NL200. So I decided that I look for good hands and then let them do the betting for me. So I can only win small pots in showdowns and lose a lot when they actually hit a monster.

Thanks for all the advice, Ishbu and others!
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Old May 02, 2008, 10:53am   #29
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ishbu3116 View Post
I think you are folding too much in the early streets and calling to much in the later streets. This also shows that you are very weak postflop.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ishbu3116 View Post
My guess is that the good opponents have figured out that two barreling works a lot against you.
Ish, did you change your mind about him calling too less early on and too much later on? Because two-barrelling (trying to fold him out) against such an opponent seems to be bad.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ishbu3116 View Post
The green line should under normal circumstance be the highest line of the three. A good player should be winning more in non-showdown pots then he is losing.
This is not necessarily true I think, because it depends very much on the style you are playing - like it's telling you where your money mainly comes from.. A good TAGs green line isn't necessarily the highest line, because he will not be aiming at making his opponents fold as much as a good LAG. Therefore he will have to give up very often loosing in nonshowdown pots but recovering when he succeeds in getting his monsters paid off. The green line being the highest means that you are good at getting your opponents to fold, a sign that you are utilising a LAG style.
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Old May 02, 2008, 12:34pm   #30
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Something just popped into my mind. The stats show that I'm winning in the pots that go to showdown and losing in the ones that are not. And it was argued that this shows bad post-flop skills (laying too many winners and not making opponents fold when it easily could be done).

But if most of my opponents are calling stations, then I guess that's how it goes. Because they call me down with junk, I'm winning the showdowns, but since they call me down with junk, there's no point try to make them fold, so if they bet, I'd better fold and not try to bluff at it.

And if my other opponents play TAG post-flop, then obviously I have to give credit to their post-flop aggression, and lay down some decent hands, when they show strength. And if they're being passive in a hand, then I shouldn't try to force them out on the turn, but take them to the river, make a value bet and let them make a crying call.

So against these kind of opponents, I guess there's no way to avoid losing money in the pots that don't go to showdown. Am I right?
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