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Old May 25, 2008, 1:46am   #1
Child_Poker
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Default luck factor in poker

for the past 6 months, i have only broken even. it's so damn frustrating because these players that are on the lower stakes are so bad. calling my 3 bet with AT, KT and 8T. wtf man... i put the money in with the best hand and always going broke... yeah yeah yeah... long run, you will win it back and so forth, but it's been already 6 months and it seems like poker has gone mad on me. i feel like i'm cursed.

i can't protect my hand, over bet it, slow play it, nothing works. it's not like i'm not picking up cards either. preflop i feel like i'm on the heater. time to cash out?

i'm making the right plays and playing good, reward bytch!!!! lol
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Old May 25, 2008, 4:27am   #2
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for the past 6 months, i have only broken even. (Some players would consider this quite an accomplishment.) it's so damn frustrating because these players that are on the lower stakes are so bad. (You've got a point there.) calling my 3 bet with AT, KT and 8T. wtf man...(I don't see the problem here however.) i put the money in with the best hand and always going broke... (Always? Really? Review your hand histories and re-evaluate.) yeah yeah yeah... long run, you will win it back and so forth, but it's been already 6 months (Subract your age from your grandfather's age. That is now your long run.) and it seems like poker has gone mad on me. (It has always been mad.) i feel like i'm cursed. (You might be...)

i can't protect my hand, (So don't), over bet it, slow play it, nothing works. it's not like i'm not picking up cards either. preflop i feel like i'm on the heater. time to cash out? (That is always up to you if you feel you aren't learning and no longer enjoy the game. You should however understand that it is my own best interest to encourage you to get some money, get out of the micros, and come give said money to me...;)

i'm making the right plays and playing good, (Double-check these results) reward bytch!!!! lol (It's all about patience.)
.
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Old May 25, 2008, 5:36am   #3
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i'm making the right plays and playing good
that's the problem man.. stop believin' that u play good. I'll bet my roll that u don'T.
That's no offense (and i'll bet that u can play better) but based on what u've written down it seems that u stoped searching/finding leaks in ur game.

I mean you complain about ppl putting too much money in with worse hands than yours. But that's something u definitly want because that's the edge u gain against them..

just make sure that u play your hands the right way, bet the right amount, fold when it's time to fold and so on..

of course it's hard work since the games are gettin tougher.. but u'll definitly be able to make some money there.
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Old May 25, 2008, 5:53am   #4
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IF you play low stakes and youre break even after 6 months, its not variance.

Dont kid yourself here. You are very bad at poker.

Im playing medstakes, I had a few 20BI DS, a ton of 10 BIs, and I never ever had 2 months breakeven.

Obviously if you play 2K hands per month, variance is a possibility.
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crazy thing is is i win money lol. that should be a ray of hope for all newbies
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Old May 25, 2008, 6:07am   #5
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nah... i can see where everyone is coming from... i have played online poker for 4 years now and as much as you all have... billions of hands with pokertracker and pahud. as well as getting help from my buddies who play for a living. i have consistantly improving my game. always played the same levels of nl25-nl100 and actually am a winning player + rakeback, but the fact is... i run fcuking bad... (well, i wish i was running better), but i can't control the luck factor and suck outs. everyone hits on me and it's sad. all you can do is say nh and move on.

meh... i'll tell you there is NOTHING i have not seen or been through. poker is indeed a dirty game and the post might of sounded noobish so now i think maybe that was a just a vent post, but yeppp... i guess ill keep a bit of money online and play for fun. NL10 here i come...
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Old May 25, 2008, 6:44am   #6
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but i can't control the luck factor and suck outs. everyone hits on me and it's sad. all you can do is say nh and move on.
No it's not. You can review where, why, how, and to whom are you losing and start to reduce these situations.
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Old May 25, 2008, 7:04am   #7
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Don't be ridiculous! You don't run bad for four years, have you any proof of this? Is it just from memory? It just seems like you always lose when you have the best hand? People tend to only remember the bad events more than the good, so the bad stand out and that's why it seems as though you lose more that you should be.

You remind me of a friend of mine who thinks he's good at poker, he breaks even in $2 SNGs and thinks it's because he always gets bad beats and he's running bad, but it's not, he's just bad, I've watched him play and say things like "no don't limp in with Q7s UTG WTF are you doing?" but he doesn't listen and refuses to read any strategy articles or anything, he said last week "I'm a big believer in learning how to play by yourself, I'd rather create my own style". Just an excuse because he's too lazy to put any effort in to it. LOL the Q7s was a funny hand, he flopped a flush and said "see what I mean, you've got to take more risks, you play too tight" he ended up tripling up from a lower flush and some other guy who had the nuts draw (A*). He moved from Full Tilt to PokerStars because "I was sure full tilt where rigging the deck" LMAO.
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Old May 25, 2008, 7:36am   #8
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I have friends who sound like you. They're convinced that they're winning players for whatever reason, so they have stopped searching for leaks.

Newsflash, your game is full of leaks that you haven't found yet.

I think Annette once said "if you don't ever get it in bad, you don't get it in enough" - This is especially true for tournaments. If you 'always' seem to be getting your money in ahead, perhaps you are playing too weak/tight and your profit is getting eaten by the blinds and hands you fold that don't go to showdown? Earlier this week, I was berated for "overplaying" KQ by re-raising all-in preflop over a 3BB raise when I had 14BB by a player who blinded his stack away to about 4BB then had aces cracked and whined about how good he plays and how bad he runs. Newsflash sir, you're a losing poker player and i'm not and it's because you only look at showdown winnings.

I see this a lot in live play. I have players berating me for open-shoving AT from LP in an unraised pot with 6 big blinds and cracking their QQ. Guess what, my play is profitable because of times that hand doesn't go to showdown. I have seen players fold 77, AT, etc with 7BB in their stack, then get it in with 2BB with KK against AQ to double up, then run QQ into A2 with 4BB and lose in the late stages of a tournament. Guess what, it's your own fault for blinding your stack away, you're going to lose one of those two showdowns half the time, so you're better off shipping AJ with 9BB and flipping or being behind if called than waiting for KK with 2 big blinds and then complaining that you get sucked out on.

You could also just be running bad and it may be affecting your confidence which in turn affects your abilities as a player, i've had about three losing months in the past year and a half and at times when I start running bad I find myself making non-optimal decisions and I notice new leaks creeping into my game (usually it's me being too passive or weak/tight, that creeps into my game a lot when i'm running bad)

In the last two weeks, i've found so many new leaks in my game and in that time, i've quadrupled my investment while playing what isn't even close to truly optimal poker. Sure, i'm playing better than my opponents, but there's that spot where I could have squeezed with J5o that I missed and there's that hero-call I could have made with AJ on the big blind when villain shoved because i'm ahead of his range, but not far enough ahead to have the nerve to make the +EV call.

Keep searching for leaks and try and work new plays into your game. I've only really started squeezing and running regular multi-street bluffs and semi-bluffs on a regular basis over the past month and it's making a big difference already to my ability to chip up from a medium stack in the mid-late stages of MTTs, which was one of my weak points.

Anyway, good luck, I hope you start winning again, you may just be running bad but you're probably just failing to notice leaks in your game.

Personally, I know that the better I get at poker, the worse I realise that I actually am.

I thought I was so good at poker when I won my Aruba seat but in reality, I was f---ing awful at the game back then. In about eight months, my game has improved massively and i'd imagine that in eight months time, i'm going to look back at now and think 'wow, I was so bad at poker back then'.

Never stop looking for ways to improve your game.
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Old May 25, 2008, 9:15am   #9
Tyrone Shuz
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Default It usually starts w/a few bad beats

Then your confidence gets shaken. Then your decision-making becomes corrupt. I've found going back to books and reviewing helps a lot. You can kind of "reboot" your mind to where it was when you were playing well.

I'm a slow and steady winner, with lots of room for improvement, and have only hit a couple bad patches, none lasting four months.

I play extremely low stakes (for now) but I'm up three levels from where I started, and I hope to actually supplement my income doing this someday. In a year and a half, I've sextupled my roll. I hear stories of people doing that here in a few months' time. But I never play w/more than about 2-4% of my roll, and I don't do much NL ring games, mostly FL and SnG's.

Take a day or two away from poker, perhaps a week. Take the first two days and do anything but poker, then re-read some materials that really helped your game. Sometimes you'll find the leak, sometimes you won't, but the leak will go away because you're now thinking right again.
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Old May 25, 2008, 6:46pm   #10
Child_Poker
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hmmm i didn't wanna start this into such a deeper thread, but it's seem like it's gone that way.

oh well, all BM comments is welcome because I don't really get mad at what people say to me because if i think they have a point, i will listen and if it's retarded flaming then i can just ignore it. i'm usually a very optimistic person.

i guess when i wrote my OP i was a bit annoyed and felt like i couldn't win at poker. overall to keep this simple, i don't think people have given me enough

creditability, everyone is telling me things that i have already heard before back like 2 years ago and even say to other people. i guess that is okay since it doesnt seem like i have enough forum posts here and people must consider me noob anyways for even writing this.

i have gone through a 25BI DS before. been through and seen it all. maybe i have plateau and need to look deeper into my game. but like i said, people ar so bad yet i can't punish them for putting all the money in. when i trap them well... maybe people are now better and better so it makes it more difficult to win big. who knows. i'll review over it when in a few days.

Last edited by Child_Poker; May 25, 2008 at 9:39pm.
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