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Old Jul 04, 2008, 9:28pm   #1
Gerrit2002
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Default PLO200 middle Set

OK not much stats of the Villain but he ran something like 40/20 pre and 1,8 Flopagression. I am not sure what I should do here (ok I am pretty sure what I should do but maybe I am wrong ). So whats Your plan?

Poker Stars $1/$2 Pot Limit Omaha Hi - 6 players

The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

SB: $571.90

BB: $97.95

UTG: $133.60

Hero (MP): $302.00

CO: $283.90

BTN: $192.35

Pre Flop: Hero is MP with Qd Qh Kd Kc

1 fold, Hero raises to $7, CO calls $7, BTN calls $7, SB calls $6, 1 fold

Flop: ($30.00) 5h Qc Ah (4 players)

SB checks, Hero bets $20, CO raises to $88.50, BTN folds, SB folds, Hero ???

EDIT: Damn mods please move to Omaha... Misclicked the category...

Last edited by Gerrit2002; Jul 04, 2008 at 9:39pm.
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Old Jul 04, 2008, 10:04pm   #2
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I think Aces would have reraised pre, so I think you are against 55 (not very possible) or a Combodraw.

It would be better, when you have the , but so I think he has together with another heart and a straight draw.

I'm not confident with the odds, but I think against something like Jx x you are flipping, so I think you can push because of dead money.

If he doesn't had a king (i don't thing so, because then he only has 3rd nut flushdraw) it would be better obviously.

But this is a good question: Is it better to push to protect the hand or is it better to call and bet a non heart/straight draw?
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Old Jul 05, 2008, 1:56am   #3
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Ditch it imo.

There is little chance he has 55 here. AAxx and QQxx, plus all the draws, would force 55 to either call to keep pot small, or just fold.

He's also raising you when you were the preflop aggressor, when the board flopped A high with another face card and you bet out pretty near pot (bet full pot next time btw, just so we can be even more sure in our reads on his responses - your bet is stooooooooooopid ). That sends alarm bells ringing through my head. Granted, it's 6-max so people can pull moves, but you're looking at strength here one way or another.

My guess is he has either aaxx (no, he would not always re-raise this preflop - I certainly wouldn't always, sometimes I would and sometimes I wouldn't) or he has some kind of flush+straight/wrap draw.

If you give each anywhere near the same probability, then your naked second set is toast. You're also over 100bb deep, meaning he's probably far less likely to raise the draw full pot than he is the set - he can't be seeing a lot of fold equity against the preflop aggressor in this spot. He also raised into a field of players (blinds, yes, but still).

IMO this is a ditch even at 6max, unless you know he's LAGtarded. And btw, ptstats in omaha are pretty well useless for understanding how he plays - I don't think they tell you much. Even over several thousand hands, the ranges in omaha run so different than in hold'em that you could conceivably end up with very similar stats playing very different styles.
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Old Jul 05, 2008, 10:28am   #4
Gerrit2002
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Thx TWLLM. I thought the same afterwards. If the flop would have been AQ4 rainbow I would have mucked for sure. In this spot I thought because I am ahead of all draws (3 blocker cards) that I am good against his range.

I disagree about 55. I would call it but most players raise even their bottom sets on a drawy board like this (at least on PLO200). So the chance him having 55 is definitly there I guess.

Still I guess fold is the better option. Thats why I asked. I pushed and he had AAxx (double suited btw).

Oh btw I dont think I must bet full pot here. But thats because of my overall gameplan and how the flow of the table was.
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Old Jul 05, 2008, 12:05pm   #5
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Originally Posted by Gerrit2002 View Post
Thx TWLLM. I thought the same afterwards. If the flop would have been AQ4 rainbow I would have mucked for sure. In this spot I thought because I am ahead of all draws (3 blocker cards) that I am good against his range. (3 blocker cards is not a huge deal in omaha. This is especially true when you personally have no redraws whatsoever if you're beat by at least part of his range.)

I disagree about 55. I would call it but most players raise even their bottom sets on a drawy board like this (at least on PLO200). So the chance him having 55 is definitly there I guess. (it's possible he has 55, but very unlikely he raises it full pot there, and if he does, he almost certainly folds it to your re-raise, meaning you don't ever get full equity from 55 as you give to aa, even though you do get some from picking up the pot when he folds)

Still I guess fold is the better option. Thats why I asked. I pushed and he had AAxx (double suited btw). (It's a tough fold for most people to make, especially people who play mostly hold'em, or assume their opponents play super straightforward, but you did have the advantage of being deep. That should have made the decision less marginal).

Oh btw I dont think I must bet full pot here. But thats because of my overall gameplan and how the flow of the table was. (I can't remember if it was Hwang or Slotboom who said it, but usually there is no reason to bet anything but pot except on the river. Now I don't adhere to that always, either, but it's usually a solid piece of advice, esp. w/o reads. It's something to think about. Also, if your opponents are all betting pot and you get less than pot, they may play back at you a lot more and it'll become harder to figure out what they have. Here it would have made no difference since if you're not folding after betting $20 and getting potted, you're not folding after betting pot and getting repotted.
I should add to the comment about blockers, that what you want in omaha isn't blockers so much as it is redraws. Even non-nut redraws, so long as they're somewhat likely, can turn a second set hand from a clear fold to a 'ahh crap' push. Blockers are about as useful as the blinds are in changing the pot odds.
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Oh, and obviously, TWLLM, we'd all rather you just ruled with an iron fist of nittiness and made all decisions without consultation, but that goes without saying, right?

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Old Jul 05, 2008, 1:48pm   #6
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I agree to most of what You said but having 3 blocker cards to the most obv. draws (Str8 and Flush) at least guarantees me, that I am a favorit against all hands but AAxx. So if I think he has AA/55 (sometimes) or a draw the 3 blockers can make a difference to my decision.

If I have him on a draw 40% of the time (40% AA and 20% 55) the 3 cards change my equity by roughly 5%. This can make a fold to a call in my eyes...

But I agree I should have folded here. Different when playing 6 tables and have some seconds to make the decision and thinking about it longer. So my play in the heat of the moment was wrong...

THX TWLLM for the help...
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Old Jul 05, 2008, 8:40pm   #7
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Originally Posted by Gerrit2002 View Post
I agree to most of what You said but having 3 blocker cards to the most obv. draws (Str8 and Flush) at least guarantees me, that I am a favorit against all hands but AAxx. So if I think he has AA/55 (sometimes) or a draw the 3 blockers can make a difference to my decision.

If I have him on a draw 40% of the time (40% AA and 20% 55) the 3 cards change my equity by roughly 5%. This can make a fold to a call in my eyes...

But I agree I should have folded here. Different when playing 6 tables and have some seconds to make the decision and thinking about it longer. So my play in the heat of the moment was wrong...

THX TWLLM for the help...
Just out of curiousity, what draw did you give him? I figured we were working from the premise that he had kQtx+fd. Do 3 blockers increase your total equity against his range when he has that draw?! That would be more than I expected them to be worth compared to the overall range, which is like 2-3%.

But whatever it works out as in this case, do not overvalue blockers. 3 blockers is nice, but it's not nice enough to change anything but the most marginal choices. What you want is redraws when you're against the aa, since you're essentially never losing to a draw with a set here.
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Oh, and obviously, TWLLM, we'd all rather you just ruled with an iron fist of nittiness and made all decisions without consultation, but that goes without saying, right?
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Old Jul 05, 2008, 9:36pm   #8
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I give him the Nutflushdraw + Str8draw maybe. So a hand like T X or similar...

My hand against has 57,2% Equity
(Set without blockers) against same hand has 52,3% Equity.

So my Equity is 5% lower if I am against a draw without blockers. So Pot will be 580$ so 5% difference is 29$ or 14,5 Big Blinds. As I said not as much to make a clear fold a call but its something to consider I guess...

But I agree with You that blockers are just a little help and no more. Its just something to consider when its awefully close which is not the case here I think. As I said I should have folded (not only because of the result) and made a bad decision...
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Old Jul 05, 2008, 10:42pm   #9
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Originally Posted by Gerrit2002 View Post
I give him the Nutflushdraw + Str8draw maybe. So a hand like T X or similar...

My hand against has 57,2% Equity
(Set without blockers) against same hand has 52,3% Equity.

So my Equity is 5% lower if I am against a draw without blockers. So Pot will be 580$ so 5% difference is 29$ or 14,5 Big Blinds. As I said not as much to make a clear fold a call but its something to consider I guess...

But I agree with You that blockers are just a little help and no more. Its just something to consider when its awefully close which is not the case here I think. As I said I should have folded (not only because of the result) and made a bad decision...
OK but being 5% more in the best case scenario, not giving you 5% more equity versus his range. That was my point. The change in equity versus his range is negligible, like 2%.

I compared it to the value of the blinds. In a $580 pot, the blinds put in $11 beyond their forced bets. That works out to about 1.9% of the pot. Now I didn't do that math in advance (the approximation I made was closer than I had expected - yay me ), but that should tell you how little difference those blockers really make.

You want to see a real difference, give yourself the weakest flush draw possible and then compare it to his range. Or give yourself like JT/KT and compare (although the flush draw is better). The key is to have something of value against every significant portion of his range. Of course, if he has AAxx with the K high flush draw, and you have QQxx with the Q high flush draw, then it's just bad luck for you.

So in other words, the 'blockers' you want are the ones that give you outs when he has the overset. So blockers are fine and all, but they're not what you really need b/c you're already a favourite over the draw. What you need is an escape valve if he has aces.
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Oh, and obviously, TWLLM, we'd all rather you just ruled with an iron fist of nittiness and made all decisions without consultation, but that goes without saying, right?
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Old Jul 05, 2008, 11:35pm   #10
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Totally agree. I just wanted to point out, that having 3(!) cards blocked at least make a small difference. But for sure Omaha is a game of draws and having redraws to a made hand is the big difference even when drawing to non nut hands...
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