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Old Oct 09, 2008, 8:41am   #21
Joes28
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meh, id do the same thing with the 66 prob... i do this to fish a lot in tourneys and it rarely ever works but occasionaly it does... the more buttons u make them click the bigger chance they have to make an error.

maybe u can fold pre, i didnt really check stack sizes, but probably not.
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Old Oct 09, 2008, 9:06am   #22
SwoopAE
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Yeah, it's variance, I know. So are the upswings. The thread wasn't designed to be a whine, it may have resulted in that, I haven't played anywhere near the necessary volume this year to get a true sample to determine ROI. I was originally just looking for someone to watch a session of mine for random feedback incase any of it was useful.

Most are MikkeD but in this case it was the end of the night and I was 1-tabling.

Also, you'd be surprised how much math is automatic. I could have told you in under a second I want villain to fold the flop here without running the exact numbers.
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Old Oct 09, 2008, 3:33pm   #23
acehole_76
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kid hustlr View Post
I lol'd

AND WHAT SKEPTIX SAID

In fact, im going to go one better.

This thread and the concept behind it is bullshit.

You have a ROI this year of 62% and you play a lot of heads up and 90 man tournaments so this is ridiculously high

You have won most of your money in the highest buy in tournys u have played. That's luck

You had a shit month in september PRECEED BY A RIDICULOUSLY GOOD MONTH in August.

For a guy who has played poker for as long as you to have such little grasp on the concept of variance baffles me.
Swoop when you first stated posting here I was sure you were a losing player, because you posted like one. I tried to find an old post where I said as much but it was hard and I gave up. Your advice to others is solid though so it confuses me, I end up going back and forth on you, solid advice + posts a losing player makes = ????. I don’t know why you don’t get that when you are winning you don’t have to be playing the best poker of your life and when you are losing you don’t necessarily have leaks creeping in to your game. I am going to let you in a secret success as an MTT player isn’t going to be decided by extremely marginal situations. Making the “correct” choices in these situations is mostly luck and affects almost nothing in the long term. Mostly you need to avoid large mistakes, or repeating small mistakes and then try to influence your opponents to make these mistakes and you will win in the long run. Sound simple? Well it is.

So in conclusion you are never running badly and winning (they just don’t go together), it is almost always variance not leaks that cause a winning player to downswing (note downswings can cause leaks but a winning player should see these leaks easily with some self analysis since like I said, they are big). You will become a better player when you understand this it will keep you from hitting the panic button if you are a winning player and if you are a losing player it will keep you from blaming these so called leaks thus forcing you to improve your game. Good luck, I hope this helps.
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obviously, it's always my fault whenever anyone does anything stupid around here.

fucking morons every one of you. there isn't a man in this village that i wouldn't feed into an incinerator for no reason other than to get rid of them.

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Last edited by acehole_76; Oct 10, 2008 at 12:21am.
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