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Old Nov 14, 2008, 11:44pm   #1
Ice_9
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Default Brain Melting - Pot Odds Issue!

OMG guys, I can't believe I am back here after learning about pot odds over a year ago but a problem has arisen that has me confounded.

The way I was taught pot odds was as follows:

A) Just like any fraction, IN is written as "/" and TO is written as ":"

B) "IN" is always 1 more than "TO". So 1/5 = 4:1. They are the same because a 1 in 5 chance means you will lose 4 and win 1.

C) The bet is a fraction of the pot. So a $10 bet into a $40 pot means you have to call $10 to win $50. As a fraction this is 10/50 or 1/5= 1 IN 5. And 1 in 5 is the same as 4 to 1.

D) You NEVER add your bet to the equasion.

E) To work this as a % we work out the fraction and multiply by 100. Eg: 10/50x100 = 20%.

F) An alternate way is to NOT add villain's bet to the pot but to see that as a separate ratio. Here a $10 bet into a $40 pot would be seen as villain laying odds of 10/40 and because you are NOT adding them together, the odds are TO. In this case 4:1. Which, as mentioned in C is 1 in 5. And thus whether you use this method, or that in C, you get the same answer of 1/5 (4:1)


So far so good right?


I will start a new post now to avoid being too heavy on the eyes.
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Old Nov 14, 2008, 11:46pm   #2
Ice_9
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I came across this example:

we have AK on A897K in position against a range of {88-99, JT, AQ-AJ}, and Villain bets $10 into a pot of $15, can we call profitably?

It later transpired that we have 42% equity against villain's range (please don't get hung up on whether this is true or not) and so I performed my calculation as follows:

We have to call $10 to win a pot of $25 so the pot odds are 10 in 25 or 1 in 2.5 and this equals 1.5 to 1. As a percentage: 10/25x100 = 40% and as we have 42% equity I figured that a call is just about EV+.

I posted this and was told I was wrong, that the pot odds were not 1 in 2.5 (1.5 to 1) but 1 in 3.5 (2.5 to 1). And that the pot odds was not 40% but 28.5%. But this went against the way I was taught. Because 10/25 is 10 IN 25 – just like 1/3 means 1 IN 3 and like 1/4 means 1 IN 4. However, from what I was being told, the fraction means TO and not IN and that you reverse the figures – hence 10/25 becomes 25/10 and “/” = “TO”. So 25/10 = 2.5 to 1.

However, as a ratio, 40/60 does equate to 1.5:1 – and so seems to vindicate my working out.




And a new post follows.....

Last edited by Ice_9; Nov 14, 2008 at 11:53pm.
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Old Nov 14, 2008, 11:47pm   #3
Ice_9
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Then I was given this example, confirming that I was wrong and that the fractions equal TO and not IN,.


Ex 2) $10 in the pot and you face a pot sized bet. The odds are 10/20 which is 1/2 which means 2 to 1 and 33%. That out of 3 attempts, you win 1 and lose 2. And so 1/2 means 2 TO 1 and not 1 in 2.


So far, with the 1 examples, I have been corrected and that all fractions equal TO.

And I kinda understand Ex 2.

But now things REALLY get messed up. I gave the following example and told I was RIGHT and this vindicates my method of calculating pot odds:


Ex 3)
Villain bets $10 into a $40 pot.

It is $10 to call to win $50 thus odds are 10/50 or 1/5. 1 In 5 = 4:1. 1/5x100 = 20%.

But if this is correct then I must be right about the original example of a $10 bet into $15 pot and the above example of a pot sized bet. So in Ex 1) & Ex 2) I am told my maths is wrong and that x/y means y TO x and yet in Ex 3) I am told that my maths is correct and that x/y means x IN y.


See my confusion!


Further more, if I test the scenario in Ex 2 using Ex 1 method, then 1/5 means 5 TO 1, or 1 in 6 or 16.66%. Is having to call a $10 bet to win a $50 pot 1 in 5 (4 to 1) and 20% or is it 1 in 6 (5 to 1) and 16.66%???


And the bottom line is this: Who is right? Does 10/25 mean, as I thought, 10 IN 25 or 1 in 2.5 (which is 1.5:1) and thus calling 40% of the pot or does 10/25 mean 25 TO 10 (which is 2.5:1 – which is 1 in 3.5?

Can you see my confusion here?

Last edited by Ice_9; Nov 14, 2008 at 11:52pm.
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Old Nov 15, 2008, 11:02pm   #4
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example 3 is the culprit. this is actually wrong. you are getting 5:1 to call $10 into a $50. so you need to win 1 in 6 to call.

I think you are confusing how often you need to win to call with the actual odds the pot is giving.

if you have to call $5 to win a $10 pot you can win twice the amount you have to call and therefore the pot is offering you 2:1. however in order to call you must win 1/1+2 = 1/3 or you need 33% equity.

easy way is take the total size of the pot before you call divided by the amount you need to call. this will give you the pot odds as X:1 you then take 1/X+1 to get the equity you need to make the call profitable.
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Last edited by Drewbles; Nov 15, 2008 at 11:16pm.
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Old Nov 16, 2008, 5:39am   #5
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Example:
The pot is $30, and then the opponent bets $10.

This puts you in a situation where you are considering putting $10 in the pot to win $40 (the pot, which includes the opponent´s bet). This gives you odds of 4:1.

If you wanna figure out how often you have to win for a call to be profitable, you add your bet to the pot as well, which makes the pot $50. This means you have to win at least as often as 1 in 5 times to profitably call.

Bottom line, always include the opponent´s bet. And include your bet as well to get IN.

I think one thing that might be confusing you is that when if the pot was $30 and the opponent then bets $10, the pot is no longer $30, it is $40

Now that the correct procedure has been stated, let´s look at the examples you have provided.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ice_9 View Post
C) The bet is a fraction of the pot. So a $10 bet into a $40 pot means you have to call $10 to win $50. As a fraction this is 10/50 or 1/5= 1 IN 5. And 1 in 5 is the same as 4 to 1.
I am assuming the pot was $40 and then the opponent bet $10.

The pot excluding your bet is $50, so the odds are 5:1
The pot including your bet is $60, so you need 1 in 6 to call.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ice_9 View Post
we have AK on A897K in position against a range of {88-99, JT, AQ-AJ}, and Villain bets $10 into a pot of $15, can we call profitably?
The pot excluding your bet is $25, so the odds are 2,5:1
The pot including your bet is $35, so you need 1 in 3,5 to call.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ice_9 View Post
Ex 2) $10 in the pot and you face a pot sized bet. The odds are 10/20 which is 1/2 which means 2 to 1 and 33%. That out of 3 attempts, you win 1 and lose 2. And so 1/2 means 2 TO 1 and not 1 in 2.
The pot excluding your bet is $20, so the odds are 2:1
The pot including your bet is $30, so you need 1 in 3 to call.

Quote:
Ex 3)
Villain bets $10 into a $40 pot.

It is $10 to call to win $50 thus odds are 10/50 or 1/5. 1 In 5 = 4:1. 1/5x100 = 20%.
The pot excluding your bet is $50, so the odds are 5:1
The pot including your bet is $60, so you need 1 in 6 to call.
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Old Nov 16, 2008, 8:29am   #6
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It all goes back to the original post, where under (D) you state that you NEVER add your bet to the equation.

This is in fact not quite true. When talking in pot odds, you don't add your bet to the pot. When talking in percentages though, you do in fact add your bet.

So take your example 2: Pot is $10 and you face a pot size bet. So villian bets $10 and the pot becomes $20, and it's $10 for you to call. Your pot odds are 20:10 not 20/10. 20 to 10. Which of course is 2:1. Now if you want to work it out as a percentage, you do add your bet. So you will be calling $10 and the final pot will be $30 - 10/30 which is 1/3 which is 33%. That's the same as 2:1.

That's all I have time for. Hope it helps.

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Old Nov 25, 2008, 12:15am   #7
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I always thought of pot odds as the odds of me smoking pot before I play. In this case my pot odds are very, very good.
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Old Nov 25, 2008, 3:27am   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ice_9 View Post
I came across this example:

...We have to call $10 to win a pot of $25 so the pot odds are 10 in 25 or 1 in 2.5 and this equals 1.5 to 1. As a percentage: 10/25x100 = 40% and as we have 42% equity I figured that a call is just about EV+.

I posted this and was told I was wrong, that the pot odds were not 1 in 2.5 (1.5 to 1) but 1 in 3.5 (2.5 to 1). And that the pot odds was not 40% but 28.5%. But this went against the way I was taught. Because 10/25 is 10 IN 25 – just like 1/3 means 1 IN 3 and like 1/4 means 1 IN 4. However, from what I was being told, the fraction means TO and not IN and that you reverse the figures – hence 10/25 becomes 25/10 and “/” = “TO”. So 25/10 = 2.5 to 1.

However, as a ratio, 40/60 does equate to 1.5:1 – and so seems to vindicate my working out.
And a new post follows.....

Pot odds are 25:10 = 2.5:1 meaning you have to win at least once in (2.5+1) = once in 3.5 times = 100/35% = 29%. If you odds of winning are 29% or more then call, otherwise fold.

(always add 1 to you pot odds to get the percentage of times you need to win)

Last edited by rpark; Nov 25, 2008 at 3:33am.
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Old Nov 25, 2008, 11:09pm   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ice_9 View Post
OMG guys, I can't believe I am back here after learning about pot odds over a year ago but a problem has arisen that has me confounded.


F) An alternate way is to NOT add villain's bet to the pot but to see that as a separate ratio. Here a $10 bet into a $40 pot would be seen as villain laying odds of 10/40 and because you are NOT adding them together, the odds are TO. In this case 4:1. Which, as mentioned in C is 1 in 5. And thus whether you use this method, or that in C, you get the same answer of 1/5 (4:1)
I cant do all that math while I, just a ditzy blonde, am sitting at a fast table - live or online - so I use the following which has worked amazingly well for me:

If opponent bets 1/4 pot, I need 5 outs after flop, 9 after turn
If 1/2 pot, then 7 after flop, 13 after turn
If 3/4 pot, then 8 after flop, 15 after turn
Full pot, then 9 after flop, 17 after turn
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Old Nov 26, 2008, 1:56am   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by liz View Post
If opponent bets 1/4 pot, I need 5 outs after flop, 9 after turn
If 1/2 pot, then 7 after flop, 13 after turn
If 3/4 pot, then 8 after flop, 15 after turn
Full pot, then 9 after flop, 17 after turn
This is only true if the opponent can´t or won´t bet on the turn in addition to on the flop.

The implied odds are greater on the flop, though, so you can call with fewer outs there, but not as few as half as many (usually).
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