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Old Jan 05, 2009, 12:19pm   #1
SwoopAE
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Default I hate variance

I am now 1 from 13 in all in preflop situations from 20 left in my last 5 deep runs in 700+ fields.

I was chipleader with 25 left in one and finished 19th.

3/27 and finished 18th

Average stack with 20 left finished 18th

1/9 and finished 7th

Final straw today: 1/15, lose three flips go in 6/9, finish 9th

Today's bustout was the only mistake and even then it was very minor; everything else was completely standard

I've been running sick hot for two weeks for a net gain of 2k. Sounds good right?

NOT WHEN MY FUCKING EQUITY WITH 9-20 LEFT IN EVERY TOURNAMENT MEANS I'M UP ABOUT 10K INSTEAD OF 2K IF I WON 7/13 FLIPS INSTEAD OF 1/13

FUCK SO MUCH LOST EQUITY IT SICKENS ME

EWFFEIHWUFEWFIHUEWF
EWFEWFIJOEWF
EIJHW9FWIJOEIHWUOFEWFIHUWFIHUI
FEWEWRFIHOEGWFIJHOWFIJHOEIJWOFWIJO
HUEWFIHUWFIHUEWFEIHUEWFHUHWUFE
IWUFEWFWFEWF

IHATEEVERYTHINGRIGHTNOWSOMUCH

Okay, there we go, better.

If i had FOLDED OUT from all of the tournaments i'd STILL have like 5k+

God I hate variance so much right now
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Old Jan 05, 2009, 1:17pm   #2
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Paging TWLLM for equity recalculations...
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Old Jan 05, 2009, 1:34pm   #3
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I think the really cruel thing to do would be to remind Swoop that MTT equity is deceptive because in all the situations at issue, he's clearly run hot for that tournament (assuming every time he busts he's winning more than his expected ROI before the tournament starts).


Even when taken as a group, I doubt that your combined ROI for however many tournaments it took for you to go into x # of deep runs, will combine to 10k worth of equity, especially when you count other cashes. And if it doesn't, then you don't hate variance, because you're actually running hot, and its just that you're running hot early on and colder later on. It's not as good as what you used to get (hot/hot) or (hot/sick hot) or (sick hot/hotter than the sun) but it could be worse.


Also, I am displeased that instead of using 2k equity as your catchphrase, you've moved up to 10k equity. That said, I'm sure we will manage to adapt the new number into our lexicon for Swoop jokes.
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Old Jan 05, 2009, 6:32pm   #4
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You still playing without rakeback Swoop?
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Old Jan 06, 2009, 1:14pm   #5
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Originally Posted by TWLLM View Post
I think the really cruel thing to do would be to remind Swoop that MTT equity is deceptive because in all the situations at issue, he's clearly run hot for that tournament (assuming every time he busts he's winning more than his expected ROI before the tournament starts).


Even when taken as a group, I doubt that your combined ROI for however many tournaments it took for you to go into x # of deep runs, will combine to 10k worth of equity, especially when you count other cashes. And if it doesn't, then you don't hate variance, because you're actually running hot, and its just that you're running hot early on and colder later on. It's not as good as what you used to get (hot/hot) or (hot/sick hot) or (sick hot/hotter than the sun) but it could be worse.


Also, I am displeased that instead of using 2k equity as your catchphrase, you've moved up to 10k equity. That said, I'm sure we will manage to adapt the new number into our lexicon for Swoop jokes.
I know i'm running hot overall.

I'm saying with 20 left in every tournament over the past 2 weeks, my gross equity AT THAT TIME (yes im picking and choosing) is about +10k - i've been c/l with 20 left four times in tourneys where first is like 5-7k and made another 3-4 deep runs with average stacks at that stage etc.

In any case, I was just massive c/l of yet another one with 50 left, I now have an average stack with 37 left due to losing the flips after doing the run deep thing

I freely admit i'm running above expectation overall over the past two weeks or so. It's just frustrating I haven't hit a score.
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Old Jan 06, 2009, 1:15pm   #6
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Originally Posted by Banalanal View Post
You still playing without rakeback Swoop?
Yes but i'm playing most of my MTTs on Stars at the moment and they don't have rakeback so I feel less left out.
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Old Jan 06, 2009, 1:17pm   #7
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Default

Oh and I fully realise i'd be someting like 120/220 for flips or w/e over the past 2 weeks but i'm 1 from 13 from 20 players left in that time.

I'll embrace the running good and whatnot but a score would be nice after all these deep runs.
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Old Jan 06, 2009, 1:33pm   #8
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The trick is to fool the software that you are a fish who just happened to go far in the tournament. (Limp in with ATC whenever your stack is ~21 big blinds.) Then, you will become coin-flip-superman on the final table since a big win for a "fish" might be good for the poker site...

OK, this post was not serious
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Old Jan 06, 2009, 1:50pm   #9
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Well i'm in the top 40 in one tourney and top 20 in another of those 800 fields (I know, I run sick hot etc) so maybe i'll try limping Q6 since that's clearly optimal from here on out
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Old Jan 06, 2009, 2:01pm   #10
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Default

ahahahahahahaha

28 left i'm a top 5 stack

JJ<55 monster pot
JJ<QT monster pot

out 28th

lost half my stack in the other one with 18 left KQ<KQ AIPF when he makes a flush

i'm so cursed to run sick hot until 18-20 left then run bad in everything
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