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Old Jan 30, 2009, 3:34pm   #21
john_delay
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pics or it didn't happen
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Old Jan 31, 2009, 5:59pm   #22
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it didn't happen

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Old Jan 31, 2009, 10:21pm   #23
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Originally Posted by john_delay View Post
pics or it didn't happen
Then I guess it didn't happen. I honestly don't have the inclination to go after whatever it is you think I can prove. I mean, pics of what exactly?

The absolute most I will concede to is the number of hands played being slightly (and I mean slightly) high, and maybe having been dealt 4 or 5 hands that you might consider better than the trash I've described. But even then those hands are not much in the way of starting hands and would be something like a J8o or whatever.

Perhaps I need to be more concise in future posts, I dunno. You guys being who you are (poker players) it's difficult to get away with much if you know what I mean.

I'm here for information, not reputation.
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Old Feb 02, 2009, 8:32am   #24
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Old Feb 02, 2009, 4:31pm   #25
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Sure, if you look at a particular set of 500 hands you'll get that probability. But I think you should be looking at all sets of 500 hand stretches over the entire sample of 25k hands or whatever. I think the probability of it happening sometime over that sample goes up a ton, but still not super likely.
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Old Feb 02, 2009, 4:50pm   #26
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Sure, if you look at a particular set of 500 hands you'll get that probability. But I think you should be looking at all sets of 500 hand stretches over the entire sample of 25k hands or whatever. I think the probability of it happening sometime over that sample goes up a ton, but still not super likely.
The probability of not getting a single top 8.7% hand 500 hands in a row is (1-0.087)^500 = 1.72x10^-20 (1 in 50 quintillion!!!). Even if you want to think of every 500 hand stretch in the 25K as independent (which they aren't) and mutiply by 25,000 the odds only increase to 4.3x10^-16 (1 in 2 quadrillion).

It didn't happen.

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Then I guess it didn't happen. I honestly don't have the inclination to go after whatever it is you think I can prove. I mean, pics of what exactly?
PT or HEM stats would be what you are looking for, but really it's ok. You had a bad stretch. It probably seemed worse than it really was and you aren't remembering the AJo etc. that you were getting UTG+1 with an UTG raiser etc. We're giving you a hard time, but you are claiming a truly unbelievable thing.
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Old Feb 02, 2009, 7:09pm   #27
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Goddamn poker players...

You're right, it did seem worse. No AJ's though. I'd remember such an amazing hand.
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