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Old Feb 14, 2009, 8:55am   #1
TWLLM
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Default Public notice: minbet O8 is not a solution to running bad (or being life-cursed)

Playing O8 = $260
Being TWLLM = -$350 in equity
Having your first serious cash game session in over a month be a - 90BB riggedfest... priceless...


There's some things mathematics can explain. For everything else, there's running like TWLLM.



I'm not going to post a dozen HHs and get flamed even worse than will result simply from this post, but I did want to share this one. Nice runner/runner quads for a 19 bet pot. Yeah yeah "but he has aces" - stfu.

BTW, how sick is it I knew I couldn't even 3-bet river because he *always* has quads there?

PokerStars Game #24921304894: Omaha Hi/Lo Limit ($2/$4) - 2009/02/14 3:32:57 ET
Table 'Vladimir IV' 10-max Seat #3 is the button
Seat 1: xw0331 ($79 in chips)
Seat 2: grayaspens ($37.50 in chips)
Seat 3: Bill5211 ($42 in chips)
Seat 4: JUS A PR ($68 in chips)
Seat 7: OCVI2003 ($139.50 in chips)
Seat 8: lighty119 ($32.50 in chips)
Seat 9: Omaha Jazz ($144.50 in chips)
Seat 10: Jmapih ($121.50 in chips)
JUS A PR: posts small blind $1
beauright: is sitting out
FreeStyleWiz: is sitting out
OCVI2003: posts big blind $2
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to OCVI2003 [5h 8s Kd Ks]
lighty119 said, "******"
beauright leaves the table
lighty119: calls $2
Omaha Jazz: calls $2
Jmapih: calls $2
xw0331: calls $2
grayaspens: raises $2 to $4
Bill5211: folds
JUS A PR: folds
OCVI2003: calls $2
lighty119: calls $2
Omaha Jazz: calls $2
Jmapih: calls $2
xw0331: calls $2
*** FLOP *** [Kc 7s 6s]
OCVI2003: bets $2
lighty119: calls $2
Omaha Jazz: calls $2
Jmapih: folds
xw0331: calls $2
grayaspens: raises $2 to $4
anytwowin joins the table at seat #5
OCVI2003: raises $2 to $6
lighty119: calls $4
Omaha Jazz: folds
xw0331: calls $4
grayaspens: calls $2
*** TURN *** [Kc 7s 6s] [7h]
OCVI2003: bets $4
lighty119: calls $4
xw0331: folds
grayaspens: calls $4
*** RIVER *** [Kc 7s 6s 7h] [7c]
OCVI2003: bets $4
lighty119: folds
grayaspens: raises $4 to $8
OCVI2003: calls $4
*** SHOW DOWN ***
grayaspens: shows [As 2c Ah 7d] (HI: four of a kind, Sevens)
OCVI2003: mucks hand
grayaspens collected $76 from pot
No low hand qualified
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $79 | Rake $3
Board [Kc 7s 6s 7h 7c]
Seat 1: xw0331 folded on the Turn
Seat 2: grayaspens showed [As 2c Ah 7d] and won ($76) with HI: four of a kind, Sevens
Seat 3: Bill5211 (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: JUS A PR (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 7: OCVI2003 (big blind) mucked [5h 8s Kd Ks]
Seat 8: lighty119 folded on the River
Seat 9: Omaha Jazz folded on the Flop
Seat 10: Jmapih folded on the Flop
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DoubleU
Oh, and obviously, TWLLM, we'd all rather you just ruled with an iron fist of nittiness and made all decisions without consultation, but that goes without saying, right?
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Old Feb 14, 2009, 9:39am   #2
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Serves you right for sucking out in the first place

To be fair he's not really got an option on the flop, he's got an overpair and nut low draw with shitty backup so he's drawing ok for half he's not to know you've flopped the immortal high hand in Top Set + Outside SF draw......just not drawing ok to your half your half

To make this REALLLY bad you need to be capped by AT77 or some shit on that flop and get scooped. I think someone having 5 7's would be standard for you
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Old Feb 14, 2009, 10:35am   #3
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fold riv as played
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Old Feb 15, 2009, 6:49pm   #4
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Dude, seriously, haven't you learned to just fold preflop yet? :p
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Old Feb 27, 2009, 2:07pm   #5
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I don't see what's special about this

and yeah you could potentially fold the river
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Old Feb 27, 2009, 6:04pm   #6
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Default fold? Are you MAD?! with the second nuts getting 18-1? WTF crack are you guys ON?!

You can't fold that river given the potsize and the low missing...anyone who suggests you can doesn't play nearly enough minbet. Being capable of bet/folding there is stupendously superduper exploitable imo.

But basically you have a bluffcatcher, check/call maybe? That's losing value from anything he got that far with that wasn't a 7, but he has AA or a 7 (or as it turned out both) or A2 that missed a low (and he has this less often, but getting 18-1 there's no WAY you can fold) pretty much always...

You beat AA, and *have* to pay off a river raise. The question is will he always bet AA on the river for value, or are you missing value by checking when he checks it back?

Interesting hand, you was unlucky...news at 11
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Old Feb 27, 2009, 11:42pm   #7
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you're 4way on the turn, which means there are 12 cards out there that could include a 7

assuming every 7 continues on the turn, it means on the river there is 1 card in 12 out of 43 unknown cards.

that's rougly a 28% chance one of the two guys has quads on the river. You can figure out the rest.


e: obv you can start pf how likely 7's are for starting hands. Idk, but prolly ~average. Then go onto the flop, how likely are holding including a 7 carried over to the turn. I'd again say ~average, maybe slighty higher cause 987 or the like will be played freqeuntly. So yeah in total I'd say the 28% quad chance is on the low side of a reasonable estimate.


my point is that raising that river without a 7 is would be way too loose for value. Which means only the idea of being able to 3bet there for value is horrendously bad against competitive players. And if the river raiser is a nit, or just a good solid player, yes, you can consider a fold, or at least call it a crying call at best.
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Old Feb 28, 2009, 12:20am   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BubbleBoy View Post
you're 4way on the turn, which means there are 12 cards out there that could include a 7

assuming every 7 continues on the turn, it means on the river there is 1 card in 12 out of 43 unknown cards.

that's rougly a 28% chance one of the two guys has quads on the river. You can figure out the rest.


e: obv you can start pf how likely 7's are for starting hands. Idk, but prolly ~average. Then go onto the flop, how likely are holding including a 7 carried over to the turn. I'd again say ~average, maybe slighty higher cause 987 or the like will be played freqeuntly. So yeah in total I'd say the 28% quad chance is on the low side of a reasonable estimate.


my point is that raising that river without a 7 is would be way too loose for value. Which means only the idea of being able to 3bet there for value is horrendously bad against competitive players. And if the river raiser is a nit, or just a good solid player, yes, you can consider a fold, or at least call it a crying call at best.



I thought you were kidding...





First of all, assuming every 7 continues is a terrible assumption. It's almost so bad that it could be a joke, but in light of the rest of your post its too much to be a joke. It's hi/lo so a 7 is a bad card generally since its in the middle of the pack (contrary to omaha, where 789 and such are fine cards). Also, on the flop its not a great card since he's rarely going to make high with it (unless he has exactly 76/k7) and its not possible for it to be part of a low draw.

In terms of the river, I agree that a 3-bet without a read is thin value. BUT I DIDN'T 3-BET! I bet/called. You're actually saying bet/call is bad against a random player? It's a ~20 bet pot, he's calling with at least AA, and probably most pps in his hand since its omaha and AK is now behind any pocket pair. Granted, he doesn't call all pps, but 88+ in minbet in a 20 bet pot is certainly reasonable. Make it just face card pairs and it's still a bet/call in a vaccum.

I would agree that if you have a read that this guy will fold everything but AA, and will bet AA if checked to, its a c/c instead of a bet/fold. But unless he flips up his cards and shows you a 7 its not a 'fold' in any sense of the word. Heck, even if he shows you the 7 its probably still a call.

What is perhaps the most ridiculous thing about your logic is that you imply I played it wrong by 3-betting river, and you fail to even read the HH apparently, since I bet/called, which you say is probably ok but not optimal.



Also, just because I expect this when he reads my response (and whatever other responses may come about) and is owned... odds on bubbleboy trying to claim this was a 'level' after the fact to save face?
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DoubleU
Oh, and obviously, TWLLM, we'd all rather you just ruled with an iron fist of nittiness and made all decisions without consultation, but that goes without saying, right?
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Old Feb 28, 2009, 12:52am   #9
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lol nah im serious

good point on the 7's cause of hi/lo, didn't consider that.
Still, you really think a 7 (talking any 7) will fold the turn for 1 bet?

you talked about 3betting river in the OP, so that's where that comes from. like " run so bad I can't 3bet here". Maybe I misunderstand what you're saying, but sounds like you liked you're hand so much on the flop/turn that not even being able to 3bet river feels like pain to you. Like a weaker version of the "omg I got AA can't fold postflop to any action cause it's AA". whatever.

I dunno what the best rive line is. I'm just saying quads are not omg-so-sick unlikely here. Hand values change, and quads are now in the lead, pretty often so.

really just a standard hand. you might have dropped from, what do i know, 55% equity on the turn, to 0% on the river. But it's poker, that's gonna happen. And no it's not worth a crying post, imo.
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Old Feb 28, 2009, 1:03am   #10
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He gets to that river with a 7 pretty much only when he has exactly AA27, or a hand like A237 or A247 with the ace suited in spades.

You just CANNOT bet/fold that river. If I thought for one instant you could bet/fold a river with the second nuts in an 19BB pot, I'm raising there all day with my whole range. I only need you to fold once in a blue moon to make that profitable.
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