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Old Oct 08, 2009, 9:59pm   #1
Banalanal
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Default NL50 Two Pair River

Hero (UTG): $125.40
CO: $66.84 21/16 agg5 wtsd 28 3bets 9
BTN: $45.75
SB: $60.93
BB: $57.65
Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is UTG with J A
Hero raises to $2, CO calls $2, 1 fold, SB calls $1.75, 1 fold
Flop: ($6.50) J A 3 (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $4.75, CO calls $4.75, SB folds
Turn: ($16.00) T (2 players)
Hero bets $9.00, CO calls $9
River: ($34.00) Q (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $19.50,

Felt like my turn bet was weak and maybe I should have bet folded the river half pot?
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Old Oct 08, 2009, 10:17pm   #2
kmay06
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Banalanal View Post
Hero (UTG): $125.40
CO: $66.84 21/16 agg5 wtsd 28 3bets 9
BTN: $45.75
SB: $60.93
BB: $57.65
Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is UTG with J A
Hero raises to $2, CO calls $2, 1 fold, SB calls $1.75, 1 fold
Flop: ($6.50) J A 3 (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $4.75, CO calls $4.75, SB folds
Turn: ($16.00) T (2 players)
Hero bets $9.00, CO calls $9
River: ($34.00) Q (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $19.50,

Felt like my turn bet was weak and maybe I should have bet folded the river half pot?
I'm fine with going more like 12 on the turn. Board is drawy. Anyway, what is your reason for wanting to bet/fold the river? I don't see him callinig with AT or something. Normally you bet/fold to get hands that wouldn't normally bet to call a river bet, but I'm not sure what you beat that fits that.
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Old Oct 08, 2009, 10:26pm   #3
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Well I was thinking maybe he calls with two pair, but yeah, perhaps not the greatest plan... So are you c/f?
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Old Oct 08, 2009, 10:41pm   #4
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If you check the river is it to c/c or c/f? I don't see a lot of kings in the hands he could have (assuming the stats are significant), so c/f seems sort of week, but I'm having a hard time putting him on a range here anyway.

I also like a bigger turn bet. I have mixed feelings about a b/f -- all of the options look kind of crap imo, though I think c/c is probably the least crap depending on betsizing.
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Old Oct 09, 2009, 12:08am   #5
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Agg = 5, a bit high compared to most at this level, so I'm probably c/c up to med size bet, folding to anything near pot, figuring he'll take a stab at the pot fairly often since so many draws got there that I don't rep.
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Old Oct 09, 2009, 2:53am   #6
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Yecch this is a weird one. AK or AQ would probably threebet preflop...he can't have AXh because you have that ace, nor some combination of KQTh because two of those cards are on the board, nor something like J9h because the jack is up there, so hearts don't get past the flop unless he's captain never fold to cbets...KJ just about fits if you shoehorn it in a little bit; he probably expects you to bet A high flops whatever you have and then the bet on the turn isn't very big so maybe he hangs around thinking he has more outs than he does. KQ or KT might have done something creative, but it's really tough to see him showing up with a king here...the danger hand that fits best is 33, he should have taken the lead before the river but people like to mutilate their sets...whatever he has, he's done something weird here.

I can see bet-folding against some opponents...and i can see some opponents calling you with a worse two pair; there are more optimists than analysts in poker. there might be an "oh of course its so obvious now that i see his cards" coming, but i'd sanction the check-call. Folk will try bluffing here, they shouldn't because neither hearts nor a king make a lick of a sense, but they will and this is an aggressive opponent.

And yeah, you can put out a bigger valuebet on the turn.

Kc
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Old Oct 09, 2009, 3:43am   #7
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river: he reps KJ or Axhh, now you hold the Ah and 2 jacks are out and KJ should ofld turn.. feel pretty good about looking him up

flop: might bet more, an A is never folding and you want to get stax in there

turn: def bet more, again A isn't folding and there's also JT/AT now that will pay, while QJ/KJ will probably fold no matter how much you bet. looking to shove the river.

river: pretty close to bet for value. like JJ is a bet for sure, I suppose a small bet/fold is still cool with AJ, looking to get called by worse 2pr. But checking is fine.
and then as I said initially, he doesn't rep a K o flush at all.. maybe AK maybe 43hh but really weird, I def like a call. Not because I can see what he can bluff with (which you usually should when you bluff catch), but just because his value range is so slim.
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Old Oct 09, 2009, 3:54am   #8
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some good responses guys, thanks
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Old Oct 09, 2009, 11:18am   #9
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Quote:
Well I was thinking maybe he calls with two pair, but yeah, perhaps not the greatest plan... So are you c/f?
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I think he has two pair or a set here about 0% of the time. He has either hit the flush or is floating you with floating being more likely. If he's floating you 95% of the time he'll fold if you raise him...so it's a clear look up. Ideally this is the time where you check your notes on him rather than software stats and see whether he's a chaser or a floater or both.
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Old Oct 09, 2009, 12:33pm   #10
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If he's floating I think we have to put KQ in his range for doing so sometimes. KJ is also a possibility depending on our reads, and I'm not willing to take 33 entirely out either although you'd really have to think he'd raise on that board texture/our position. A flush is entirely possible versus somebody who floats a decent amount. But even if you allow all of this it's still a profitable look up imo -- he'll also have 3b KQ and KJ some % of the time.
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