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Old Oct 13, 2009, 4:13am   #1
darryl
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Default paired river with nut flush in live game

This was live against a fairly new opponent at the table. My take on him from the little I gathered is that he is competent, probably plays online fairly well and plays fairly lag. It is too soon to tell for sure, but sometimes you can just tell these things by their mannerisms.

Anyway, it was 1-2 NL I was BB with AcRag with $350. There were 4 limpers in the pot and it's limped to me, I check it. ($8 )

Flop comes 7cKc9c. I lead out for $10, it's folded to the villain who takes his time and calls. ($26)
Turn gives me a rag club for the nut flush. I lead out for $20, he calls. ($43)
River is another 7, I lead out for $25. ($68 )
He raises All in.

My primary question is, at what point in stack sizes (if any) do I fold? I purposely left out the villain's stack size to see what people here are willing to call with and why.
I should have bet more on the river, but that voice in my head said he is playing trips or K7 or K9 or even 79 being that it was a limped pot and all, and I thought if I bet smaller I could call a smaller raise. (probably flawed thinking) I've seen live players in position wait too long to hammer their trips and the way he was pausing in this makes me think that.

I've seen similar situations that I wasn't involved in where the one with the nut flush stacks off and says they would stack off all day long because they feel in the long run, they come out ahead. These seem to be the guys paying me off with their second best hand.

Hope I wasn't rambling too much.
Thanks!

-d
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Last edited by darryl; Oct 13, 2009 at 4:49am.
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Old Oct 13, 2009, 4:21am   #2
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Strange hand. Is he savvy enough to predict that you'll lay down the Ac to his all-in? Even if there's a fairly small chance you think he's capable of doing that, I think you have to call. I don't hate how you played it though. I don't think I like checking the river at all. The Qc or Jc checks behind way too much.
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Old Oct 13, 2009, 4:30am   #3
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I like your line. I call 100bb stacks. 200bbs, without a read, I fold.
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Old Oct 13, 2009, 5:15am   #4
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This would be ugly online, but live you have so much more information to play with. Interrogate him until he tells you his hand.

Kc
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Old Oct 13, 2009, 11:15am   #5
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Prolly wouldnt call anything more than 100 in that spot, but live people do really weird and spewy things alot.... and u havent particularly said i have the Ac @ any point with ur play...

Live pokerz often farks with ur head.. gotta love the Ev though!
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Old Oct 13, 2009, 1:25pm   #6
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Ozone - his impression of me is probably that I probably couldn't lay that down. I say this because all he has really seen of me is that the table clown has been BSing like crazy and I'm the only one egging the guy on. I love doing that live, it makes the good players underestimate you.

Kc - I did try to get something out of him. He was very quiet, wouldn't say much more than a peep. It looked like he's used to that. I've seen this type of response mean anything.

By the way, I've seen this a lot lately where at your table, there is that one guy deciding to make the call and he always shows his had to the pusher. This wouldn't be so bad if it was only once at the table. But when they do it for every big decision, it gets annoying.

Rhughie - I didn't tell him my hand. I was just saying things like - I know you beat the flush, but do you really have the boat, did that 7 help you. You've probably got pocket 7s or K7 or something. Still no reaction from that.

-d
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Old Oct 13, 2009, 5:26pm   #7
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Kc - I did try to get something out of him. He was very quiet, wouldn't say much more than a peep. It looked like he's used to that. I've seen this type of response mean anything.
Keep interrogating him until he tells you his hand. You've got a decision for your stack, you keep digging until you find something.

Once it becomes apparent that he's not going to give you anything other than his name, rank and serial number, there's limited utility to strapping him into a dentists chair and screaming VE KNOW YOO ARE LYINK, VEHR IS ZEH MICROFELM? If possible you want to establish rapport, you need to sneak something small past his defences and then build on it. "Lets see you called on the flop, called on the turn and now you're...what's your mother's maiden name?" "Smith" "Smith? I think I have to fold if her name was Smith...hang on my mother's maiden name is Smith, we can't both have be Smith, are you trying to pull a fast one here, 'Smith' ?"

If you can get him to react to a joke, you're basically in. at the very least it will take him time to marble over again, and you'll get to see him reset into givenothingaway mode.

Quote:
I was just saying things like - I know you beat the flush, but do you really have the boat, did that 7 help you. You've probably got pocket 7s or K7 or something. Still no reaction from that.
I know you beat the flush but do you really have the boat...what else could he have that beats the flush except quads?

Direct questions are the easiest to ignore, they're also the questions he expects you to ask.

I could write pages and pages on lie detection and mindreading, fortunately somebody else already has, if you're going to play much live, find it and read it. Don't bother with Phil Hellpless' shitty book, just learn to do mentalism tricks.

Kc
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Old Oct 14, 2009, 1:37am   #8
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I will dig deeper next time, but you still haven't answered my question. Assume he is a deaf, blind mute. How much would you call here on his all in?

BTW I ended up folding. He was all in for another $100 on top of the $25 I bet. It's probably weak, but the more I thought of it, the more I convinced myself I was beat.

I'm assuming he was a good player, he assumes since I'm bullshitting with the table clown that I'm probably not the greatest and not capable of folding a nut flush. Being that there are 4 clubs on the board, he knows I have a flush. He also knows that I lead out on all three streets and if I had a weak flush draw on the flop I probably wouldn't have bet. He called the turn bet knowing he could probably stack me on the river if it paired up. I had enough behind to make that EV+ for him. I'm assuming he wouldn't push with a flush because he is probably putting me on the nut flush and knows I'm going to call (which is what he wants if he has the boat). So therefore he thinks I'll stack off and he pushes with his boat.

^^Is this thought process reasonable? I of course will never know what he had since I folded, but I just can't see him pushing with anything that I beat. Unless he somehow knew I was capable of folding the nut flush and just bluffed me off it. If so NH.

-d
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Old Oct 14, 2009, 2:38am   #9
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I will dig deeper next time, but you still haven't answered my question. Assume he is a deaf, blind mute. How much would you call here on his all in?
My apologies, most live decisions are heavily read based for me. In a vacuum I'm folding a lot due to decompression sickness.

Quote:
BTW I ended up folding. He was all in for another $100 on top of the $25 I bet. It's probably weak, but the more I thought of it, the more I convinced myself I was beat.
So the pot is about 220 and it's 100 to call? Are you good 31% of the time?

I doubt it, because he has to get to the river before he makes this raise. Is he really going to float the turn with four clubs on the board, hoping the board will pair so he can bluff? With no guarantee that you're able to fold your flush if it does? There is only one legitimate hand he can actually be bluffing with, K9. It's kind of ass backwards since he was assuming he'd get paid if he hit but can bluff if the board pairs something else, but people do have a tendancy to make history doesn't exist bluffs when they miss even in spots like this. There is also the possibility that he realises he was wrong when he called on the turn and that you actually are afraid of boats now, so has correctly re-evaluated and gone for you. Of course the only reason we're even talking about this is that K9 is the only hand that gets to the river and isn't full, how many % does K9 account for?

He might be capable of bluffing with the Qc now that your ace isn't the nuts but again it's extremely unlikely. He gets such a good deal from calling that shoving hoping to fold the nut flush is spastic and he obviously never gets called by anything he beats.

Do K9 and Qc add up to 31%? I don't think so, I think he's full.

Quote:
I'm assuming he was a good player, he assumes since I'm bullshitting with the table clown that I'm probably not the greatest and not capable of folding a nut flush. Being that there are 4 clubs on the board, he knows I have a flush. He also knows that I lead out on all three streets and if I had a weak flush draw on the flop I probably wouldn't have bet. He called the turn bet knowing he could probably stack me on the river if it paired up. I had enough behind to make that EV+ for him. I'm assuming he wouldn't push with a flush because he is probably putting me on the nut flush and knows I'm going to call (which is what he wants if he has the boat). So therefore he thinks I'll stack off and he pushes with his boat.

^^Is this thought process reasonable?
Yes.

We could also consider the possibility that he thinks you flopped a small flush and are trying to get it shown down cheap, but again this only adds a very small amount to your am-i-good %.

Quote:
I of course will never know what he had since I folded, but I just can't see him pushing with anything that I beat. Unless he somehow knew I was capable of folding the nut flush and just bluffed me off it. If so NH.
Remember to watch people after you fold to them in spots like this. They'll often give you some information about the hand once it's over.

Kc
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Last edited by killcrazy; Oct 14, 2009 at 2:42am.
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Old Oct 14, 2009, 1:41pm   #10
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Remember to watch people after you fold to them in spots like this. They'll often give you some information about the hand once it's over.

Kc
Oh believe me, I kept asking him to show me his quads or his full house, but he didn't even flinch, he just took the chips, mucked his hand and moved on to the next hand.

Looking at the hand again, I'm wondering if he did have quads. It is conceivable that even with three suits he just called his trips. I don't get it, but live people do that all the time. Oh well, moving on...

-d
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