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Old Jan 14, 2010, 12:39pm   #1
wizard210
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Pretty much butchered this hand on the turn and river I believe. Just need some thoughts. I felt that if I bet and got raised on the river I was had. Pretty much felt I played it like a pussy

Absolute/UB Cereus Hold'em, $10.00 BB (4 handed) - Absolute/UB Cereus Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (Button) ($141.25)
SB ($268.50)
BB ($874.75)
UTG ($126)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A, A
1 fold, Hero bets $10, SB raises to $15, BB calls $10, Hero raises to $20, SB calls $5, BB calls $5

Flop: ($60) 5, Q, 10 (3 players)
SB bets $5, BB calls $5, Hero raises to $10, SB raises to $15, BB calls $10, Hero calls $5

Turn: ($105) 5 (3 players)
SB bets $10, BB calls $10, Hero calls $10

River: ($135) J (3 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero checks

Total pot: $135 | Rake: $2.50

Results below:
Hero had A, A (two pair, Aces and fives).
SB had 9, A (one pair, fives).
BB had J, K (two pair, Jacks and fives).
Outcome: Hero won $265
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Old Jan 14, 2010, 1:44pm   #2
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so rarely get to do limit analysis these days, i miss limit.

definitely raise the turn. you figure to have the best hand most of the time. with the 5 pairing, your AA beats any other two pair. plus there are obvious draws out there, the BB has as good as announced he's drawing and the pot is big enough that he can call 2 bets cold if you raise and SB reraises. Even if you raise and get reraised, you have more than 33% equity against their respective ranges, so you're getting good odds on your bets.

as played, there is no way you are beat on the river, the only hands that beat you are a straight or a boat, absolutely no chance that those hands check to you. if you bet and get checkraised, i'd actually threebet a significant amount of the time.

Kc
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Old Jan 14, 2010, 1:49pm   #3
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It's hard to be objective with your opponents' hands posted. but hare are my thoughts. Keep in mind that I'm nowhere near as experienced as some players here.

I'd probably reraise the turn since the 5 isn't that scary. If he reraises I'd be scared of QQ, but it's hard without any reads on the players. He could be playing AQs or KK very agressive after all. I'd probably just check the river too, but maybe that's just me. Chances are that you are beat and save 2 BB by checking after all.

Edit: Guess i posted this at the same time as KC

Last edited by ElKabong; Jan 14, 2010 at 1:52pm.
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Old Jan 14, 2010, 5:12pm   #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ElKabong View Post
I'd probably just check the river too, but maybe that's just me. Chances are that you are beat and save 2 BB by checking after all.
Well yes, you are beat like 1% of the time maybe. If SB is a decent player you are good 100% here.
And I just cap the flop 3-handed, because there are just too many cards on the turn, where I can't be sure about my equity. As played raise turn as explained, that's the perfect card for you.
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Old Jan 15, 2010, 3:06am   #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ElKabong View Post
I'd probably reraise the turn since the 5 isn't that scary.
the 5 is the best card in the deck for our hand.

we make the nut two pair and it's almost impossible for anyone to have a five.

it's rare that we're up against a set, in fact we're slightly more likely to be up against KJ than a set, so the one remaining A that would give us top set without completing the flush is completing a straight draw more often than it's counterfeiting a set.

Quote:
If he reraises I'd be scared of QQ, but it's hard without any reads on the players. He could be playing AQs or KK very agressive after all.
why be scared? he might have QQ, but his reraising range is wide enough that you're more than 33% even when you get reraised. There are no situations that can arise following your raise that don't favour you.

Quote:
I'd probably just check the river too, but maybe that's just me. Chances are that you are beat and save 2 BB by checking after all.
why on earth would he check the river with a hand that beats aces up?

Kc
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Old Jan 15, 2010, 1:19pm   #6
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Point taken. I give people to much credit I guess. In retrospect I have no idea why I thought we weren't ahead on the river.
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Old Jan 16, 2010, 7:41pm   #7
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If you're not going to cap the flop you have to raise the turn here it's a total brick and there is no reason to suspect a 5, at this point we lose to QQ and TT only, if that's the case then cooler.

As played the river is a pretty simple value bet, the only extra hands we lose to are K9 which is unlikely to have gone mental like that on the flop, 98 (ditto) and AK (Ditto and we kill a ton of combos with out hand) and we beat all 2 pair combos.
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Old Jan 17, 2010, 11:49am   #8
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not nitpicking, just filling in blanks

Quote:
Originally Posted by Boomer2k6 View Post
If you're not going to cap the flop you have to raise the turn here it's a total brick and there is no reason to suspect a 5, at this point we lose to QQ and TT only, if that's the case then cooler.
and 55. you might also throw 65d and A5 in the mix.

Quote:
As played the river is a pretty simple value bet, the only extra hands we lose to are K9 which is unlikely to have gone mental like that on the flop, 98 (ditto) and AK (Ditto and we kill a ton of combos with out hand) and we beat all 2 pair combos.
K9 and 98 should only be turning up if they're diamonds, having said that someone might spazz with K9 thinking he has kings and jacks as outs. A lot of guys will get to the river with AK in the BB, it's not that terrible a mistake, two overs+gutshot+optimism on the flop, pretty much the right price to draw on just the jack on the turn.

But this doesn't actually matter, because nobody is checking a straight on the river. nothing that beats aces is checking.

Kc
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