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Old Feb 14, 2010, 8:06pm   #1
GoldfishUltraDeluxe
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Default Flop decision

Microlimit FL game

10-handed, folded to me at BTN, with

I raise
SB folds
BB calls (quite decent player)

Note: Pot size is given in BiB (= Big Blinds) below, rather than BB = Big Bets

Flop (4,5 BiB)



BB checks

So I have TPTK at an ugly flop which should have helped BB somehow.

The flop gave me some headache, since BB has such a wide range that he will be happy to continue playing with postflop. From my point of view: Is aggressive play or passive play the better choice here?



Specific questions:

Do I bet here? If not, what should be my line through the hand? Do I change
gears and start betting on turn or river, if BB does not bet?

If I bet, what do I do if raised? Can I fold, or should I call down?
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Old Feb 14, 2010, 9:42pm   #2
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your hand is about ahead of his range 1/3 of the time if he calls or raises. However you don't have info and must c-bet here. If he just calls you can fire again and hope he folds non-straight hands. His range is so much stronger than your hand that your action after the first c-bet depends entirely on your reads and whether or not you think you can exploit him for more than you're investing here when you do have KQ here or other strong hands. Is he playing the cards or also the players? Most likely just the cards so easy fold past the first c-bet or if raised. Note: if this is TWLLM your next cards will be: JJ; AA or AJ and you should raise and jam
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Old Feb 15, 2010, 12:31am   #3
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this is one of those spots that can be easily rephrased as "how do you play poker?" pretty much whatever answers anyone gives you, there will be a straight forward counter.

lead the flop, there are a bunch of draws out here, you can't give them a free turn. If one of the 21 scare cards turns, check behind and, unless you find a reason not to, call the river. if the turn is a brick, you have a choice between betting again and checking to induce a bluff. you probably want to go with betting, because you still have all those draws to contend with and i suspect that your opponents are more likely to just check through rather than try to steal. you can make a judgement call on the river as to whether you think you can make a valuebet.

if you get checkraised you're in an ugly spot, but you at least have decent information because most peoples checkraising ranges are well defined. very few of your opponents are going to be capable of checkraise/bet/betting here with air. if you decide that you should call against this opponent's checkraise, you basically have to get out of the way if any straight cards fall (diamonds are less scary here than straight cards, because he's more likely to be checkraising a closegapped connector with pair+sd than he is two diamonds, unless its 9Xd, but there aren't that many 9Xd hands compared to pair+sd hands). i state that emphatically but you should really run the numbers and see if i'm right, i might not be, you might have enough equity to call if, say, an 8 lands, but it seems more fun to make you do the math instead. he's also going to checkraise two pair and a flopped straight, of course.

Quote:
Originally Posted by snaggle
If he just calls you can fire again and hope he folds non-straight hands.
you're hoping he folds everything we can beat?

Quote:
His range is so much stronger than your hand that your action after the first c-bet depends entirely on your reads and whether or not you think you can exploit him for more than you're investing here when you do have KQ here or other strong hands
it's pretty close to 50/50 when the flop bet gets called, if the turn bricks we gain somewhere around 7 or 8% equity (based on very rough calculations). you're right that reads influence this hand a lot, i have us as a small favourite on a brick turn, but the question then is how much is he checkraising with, can we beat any of it, and are we obliged to call. getting done for 3 big bets can wipe out that small advantage over his range.

worth mentioning, say the turn is the 8s, we're now a heavy dog, but we do have enough equity to call down.

there, i'm bound to have halfarsedly misexplained something enough to start a discussion

Kc
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Old Feb 15, 2010, 11:07am   #4
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What KC said, roughly, although im slightly less confident about our hand than he is, but his analysis is better than anything I feel like writing right now
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Old Feb 15, 2010, 6:07pm   #5
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If the Big Blind is an decent player here I'm betting and heading to showdown if he puts in any aggressive action. Folding a hand as strong as TPTK in a Button vs Blind battle should only be done with EXTREME reads in today's games or if the boards comes awful, i.e. and T pairs or something.

He's defending a hugely wide range preflop (or should be if you have a decent TAGGY image) and you have good equity vs his range.

(I'm assuming you open-raise about 40% from the button which is probably a little tight and he'll defend hands with 40% equity vs your perceived range which, again, is a bit tight)

So his defending range looks something like this:

Equilator Results

Pairs
22+

Suited
A2s+
K2s+
Q4s+
J7s+
T7s+
98s
87s

Offsuit
A2o+
K5o+
Q8o+
J9o+


vs that range on the flop here's our equity:

http://www.PokerStrategy.com
Operation canceled... 50,384,558 games processed in 23 seconds.

Board: Jd Td 9c
Dead:

Equity Win Tie Loss Hand
Player 1: 60.346 % 58.406 % 3.880 % 37.714 % AsJh
Player 2: 39.654 % 37.714 % 3.880 % 58.406 % 22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q4s+, J7s+, T7s+, 98s, 87s, A2o+, K5o+, Q8o+, J9o+


So not betting the flop isn't an option and tbh there are very very few circumstances I won't follow through Heads Up with Initiaive on the flop.

If we're check raised then there's trouble:

If we're up vs made hands and Pair+Draw combos then our equity drops to about 47%. However we will also often be bluffed with flush and 1 card straight draws so being generous I'd say we're about 50/50 vs his range if check raised.

We don't have enough equity to 3-bet and we don't really gain anything by doing so if he is bluffing since he won't call a river bet if he's bluffing.

So if x/r'd I'd say call flop and re-analyse turn, immediately folding certainly and , what you do on the other 8's and Q's is dependant on how you percieve his value range on the flop. If it's Top Pair+ then you've got a pretty easy fold. If he'll take you on with middle pair/air then you've got a tougher decision.

If the turn and river brick off then call down.
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Last edited by Boomer2k6; Feb 15, 2010 at 6:10pm.
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Old Feb 15, 2010, 7:17pm   #6
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His preflop range doesn't really need to be examined in any detail except that it leads to his flop ranges. You forgot to pull the threebetting range out btw.

He gets past the flop with a range that looks something like;

99-88,
AJs-A8s,
Ad7d,Ad6d,Ad5d,Ad4d,Ad3d,Ad2d,
KJs-K8s,
Kd7d,Kd6d,Kd5d,Kd4d,Kd3d,Kd2d,
Q7s+,
J7s+,
T7s+,
98s,
AJo-A8o,
K8o+,
Q8o+,
J9o+,
T9o

Against which we have 49.2% equity, 2s on the turn gives us 58.3% equity against the same range (with an uncertainty of about +/- 3% overall equity)

If we assume the kind of player I was describing, I'd expect checkraises from (* hands might checkraise or call):

99
Ad9d,Ad8d
Kd9d down to Kd2d
QJ, QT, Q9, Q8 s/o
JT, J9, J8 s/o
T9s/o,T8s*
98d
KJ* s/o

Which leaves a calling range of (**except the diamond versions that checkraise):

88
AJ, AT, A9**, A8**
Ad7d,Ad6d,Ad5d,Ad4d,Ad3d,Ad2d,
KJ, KT, K9** K8**
Q7s
J7s
T7s
98s**
T8s

Against the calling range (between 10 and 11.5% of all possible 2 card hands) we have 66.2% equity regardless of what he does with the hands that he might checkraise or call (which is kinda cool because it means the hands I thought were borderline have almost dead on 33.8% equity). If the turn bricks we have between 79.4 and 79.5% equity against the same range.

Against the checkraising range (which is also, bizarrely, between 10 and 11.5% of all possible hands) we have 34.3 to 38.1% equity on the flop and 39.4 to 44.2% equity on a brick turn.

So. First point of note, we are going to get called and checkraised about the same amount. If we do get checkraised, we should assume he's betting the hand down, we'll have to call 5 small bets to see a showdown. Conveniently with just over 1/3 equity, working out how big the pot has to be is pretty easy, since we need 2:1 on his bets, if the current pot is bigger than his 5 bets, we call. 4 small bets in preflop, 2 small bets in on the flop, 6 small bets. We have equity to call, even taking into account the future bets we'll have to face. Of course we aren't always calling down, because bad cards can fall. On the turn, we will need enough equity to call 2 big bets with the pot standing at 4 big bets; 3:1 pot odds, so we'll need 25% equity. Same idea on the river, we'll need 12.5% equity to call with 7:1 pot odds.

So assuming everything I've said is correct, which it might not be because I'm in a rush to get to the stupourmarket before the bastard closes so I can buy things that make me fat and give me cancer, if he checkraises with the range I've given, which turn cards force us to fold? are there any turn cards we should actually raise?

first correct answer (with proof) wins rep points.

Kc
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Last edited by killcrazy; Feb 15, 2010 at 7:21pm.
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Old Mar 04, 2010, 9:36pm   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Boomer2k6 View Post
So if x/r'd I'd say call flop and re-analyse turn, immediately folding certainly and , what you do on the other 8's and Q's is dependant on how you percieve his value range on the flop. If it's Top Pair+ then you've got a pretty easy fold. If he'll take you on with middle pair/air then you've got a tougher decision.

If the turn and river brick off then call down.
Sorry to just kill the analysis that have been carried out, especially by Kc, in this thread....

I was check-raised, and figured there were so many draws out there so I should simply call down unless the board went too ugly.

Turn was
Villain bet
I call

River was
Villain bet
I call


Villain held so he flopped a straight...but I guess I played the hand ok.
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Old Mar 04, 2010, 9:50pm   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GoldfishUltraDeluxe View Post
Sorry to just kill the analysis that have been carried out, especially by Kc, in this thread....
you didn't kill the analysis. my analysis included what to do on a checkraise

Quote:
Villain held so he flopped a straight...but I guess I played the hand ok.
you don't need to guess about that

Kc
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