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Old Feb 25, 2010, 1:30am   #1
ElKabong
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Default Set mining or value betting?

I've hardly been playing poker at all this month for a couple of reason but just got back to it. A few times I've been at a very loose short hand table with a pocket pair in one of the blinds and more than two limpers. If it's a small pair I set mine and with JJ+ I raise for value. But with especially 99 and TT I find myself a bit stumped. What to do? Will raising really be a valuebet? After all being out of position against limpers with so many possible overcards isn't my idea of fun. On the other hand, everyone will probably call a raise so the pot will grow with the downside of giving everyone odds to draw.

Same thing on the button. I always raise with 99+ but is it worth a raise with 66+ against two or more limpers? Anything lower seems to weak to raise at the micros.

I recall a thread with similar questions but with AJ, but some thoughts on this would be nice.
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Old Feb 25, 2010, 2:25am   #2
killcrazy
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ahhhh this old chestnut.

firstly, 20pts for recognising that raising hurts your equity. yes, if you raise, you're going to make it correct for draws to continue on later streets, and you're going to win the pot less often. you need to decide whether that drop in equity is worth the extra money you get into the pot early as a favourite.

how your action here fits into your overall style of play and your calling/raising ranges can be considered too, but it really isn't important enough to your game at this point to worry too much about this, your game should be very ABC because ABC is the best balance between max EV and min variance right now.

someone more familiar with your limit might be able to come in with some data that makes this a no brainer, but i would recommend raising far more than calling, in fact i'd say go ahead and raise every time.

you're going to win by virtue of your hand strength a significant amount of the time; you're going to flop a set 11.75% of the time, you're also going to flop an overpair like 40% of the time. as the preflop raiser, it's much more likely everyone will check to you and you can take a free turn if you want (with a 4 card flop, your odds of making a set increase to 15.5%). finally, as is always the case when you're the preflop raiser, people will respect your board bets. you aren't stealing the pot here per se, because you will have the best hand, but you're preventing anyone else from stealing - you missed this in your question, "value bet or set mining", control of the pot has real value.

so there are arguments in favour of flatting, but by and large, raising is the better play.

Kc
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Old Mar 01, 2010, 6:44pm   #3
ElKabong
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Originally Posted by killcrazy View Post
someone more familiar with your limit might be able to come in with some data that makes this a no brainer, but i would recommend raising far more than calling, in fact i'd say go ahead and raise every time.
Does this apply to both the blinds and button?
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Old Mar 02, 2010, 6:23pm   #4
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Does this (raising every time) apply to both the blinds and button?
in this case, yeah, i think you should go ahead and raise down to about 88 if it's limped to your blind because you figure to have the best hand basically always.

obviously, the flop is going to change things for you whatever position you're in, and you have to know when you can hang around with these pairs and when you need to get out of the way, but thats poker, innit.

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