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Old Feb 26, 2010, 3:42am   #1
darryl
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Default Still trying to figure this game out

Me, I'm dealt limped, then I potted the flop, then eventually got it all in on the flop while first to act with two others behind me who also called/raised.

Flop was giving me the straight and not much to improve.

I looked back at this hand, the other two players had and

So without punching it into a calculator, and just using your powers of estimation, what would you say my odds are of winning? I figured I was around 50% or so, but was surprised after I punched it in. BTW, I know the point is moot since the money was in before seeing what they had.

I'm not sure my point of posting this, other than I have a lot to learn. FWIW, I did win the hand, but I would have posted even if I lost.

-d
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Old Feb 26, 2010, 7:30am   #2
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Originally Posted by darryl View Post
Me, I'm dealt limped, then I potted the flop, then eventually got it all in on the flop while first to act with two others behind me who also called/raised.

Flop was giving me the straight and not much to improve.

I looked back at this hand, the other two players had and

So without punching it into a calculator, and just using your powers of estimation, what would you say my odds are of winning?
you lose on a diamond, that's 9 outs twice, or a paired board, that's 7 outs on the flop and 10 outs on the river except we're doublecounting the 5d on the turn and a bunch of possible rivers too, you can also lose on backdoored clubs or jack ten, so lets call it 14 outs on the flop and 18 outs on the river, deck has 37 cards so; 23/37 x 18/36 = 23/74 = about 31%?

Kc
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Old Feb 26, 2010, 10:15am   #3
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KK for super-paired board, or JJ ftw!

Oh noes - 24c got there
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Old Feb 26, 2010, 10:17am   #4
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KK for super-paired board.
any runner runner pair wins for the set anyway, that it makes quads for the other guy doesn't matter.

Kc
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Old Feb 26, 2010, 10:26am   #5
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Give me a couple of minutes to edit!!!

I need to get the SF in too!

Even if they only matter for fun.
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Old Feb 26, 2010, 12:45pm   #6
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I was actually 33.63% to win. The guy with trip 9's was 38.89% and KK flush draw guy was 27.48%

I think I've learned something. When I flop the nuts on a 2 suited board, without having a flush draw or trips and going into 2 other people who are raising, I'm probably only about a third to win.

So I should probably slow down and just call if I'm raised while OOP with the nuts and no redraws, right?

-d
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Old Feb 26, 2010, 2:17pm   #7
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So I should probably slow down and just call if I'm raised while OOP with the nuts and no redraws, right?

-d
You got money it at 3:1 with a 33% chance to win, so it wasn't -ev it was just a flip. Part of their range is both having flush draws or both having trips in which case you are going to be getting better odds. So overall getting it in here can't be wrong but maybe not optimal. If you can put them on a narrow enough range to fold the turn if the flush comes or board pairs then slowing down on the flop and pushing the turn could be better. I've only limited Omaha experience though so I'm not sure how tightly you can assign them ranges.
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Old Feb 26, 2010, 3:37pm   #8
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I think I've learned something. When I flop the nuts on a 2 suited board, without having a flush draw or trips and going into 2 other people who are raising, I'm probably only about a third to win.
in omaha, you need to think more about blockers and redraws than you do in hold'em. in this spot, if your jack was a heart instead of a diamond, you'd have just 30.9% equity, if you had J6d in your hand you'd have 36.8% equity.

the hand is almost a perfect storm, both opponents have live draws and very few of their outs overlap, even here you've got pot odds. if they were both playing the flush draw with some other combination of low percentage filth, you'd be in great shape. it's incredibly rare for you to be in worse shape than you are here; you'd need one of the other players to also have the straight as well as both the flush and boat draws in play, the odds of which are roughly comparable to winning the lottery on an airplane while suffering deep vein thrombosis and being run over by a lorry driven by a dog.

and yes, redraws are money. if you were heads up with someone who had, say, 9876dd, his draws would make him something like a 7/3 favourite.

Quote:
So I should probably slow down and just call if I'm raised while OOP with the nuts and no redraws, right?
no, you should probably just get all the money in. it's really hard for you to not be getting bet odds, and you prevent yourself from making an imperfect play on the turn; lets say the board pairs, are you folding? sometimes it's a great laydown, sometimes you got bluffed. sometimes it's a great call, sometimes you stack off dead. you should take all of that out of the equation by getting your money in good on the flop.

from my experience, nlhe is all about the big bets on the turn and river, whereas omaha is all about getting all in with more equity than the other guy on the flop.

Kc
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Old Feb 27, 2010, 1:32am   #9
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So it sounds like flopping the nut straight with no redraws is still worth pushing even against resistance then, unless I have some sort of read?

Another question, are there ever times to slow play this? Like say for example I had 6d 8d 9x 9x and in any of the positions.

-d
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Old Feb 28, 2010, 8:02am   #10
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Yeah basically

Remember they could have AAxx and KKxx with diamonds or both have sets and then you'd be more like 60-65% to win 3 way
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